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- Daily Energy Market Update July 8, 2026
Energy markets have shifted back into a geopolitical risk-driven environment over the past 24 hours. Crude oil surged more than 6% after President Trump declared the interim ceasefire with Iran "over" following U.S. airstrikes in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI briefly traded near $75 per barrel, while Brent approached $79, as traders quickly repriced the risk of potential supply disruptions through one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. Price action is likely to remain headline-driven as traders reassess geopolitical risk and the potential for supply disruptions.
Adding to the bullish tone, a Suezmax tanker scheduled to load CPC crude near Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk was reportedly struck by Ukrainian drones while waiting to load. Although the vessel remained stable and the crew was reported safe, the incident underscores the expanding risks to global energy infrastructure and export logistics. Ukraine also claimed strikes against multiple tankers supporting Russian operations, reinforcing concerns over potential disruptions to regional crude flows.
While geopolitics remain the dominant driver, the underlying market fundamentals also continue to provide support. Seasonal demand remains firm, while traders continue to monitor inventory trends, refinery activity, and global supply conditions for confirmation that the recent strength in energy prices can be sustained.
The focus now shifts to whether the current rally can be sustained once the initial geopolitical premium is absorbed. While tightening inventories and escalating supply risks support higher prices, markets remain vulnerable to abrupt reversals should tensions ease or diplomatic developments emerge. Elevated volatility is likely to persist, making key technical resistance levels and incoming geopolitical headlines the primary drivers of short-term price direction.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude is opening up $3.59 at $74.03. The bullish reversal on July 2 proved that the market had become stretched too far to the downside, creating a strong possibility for a significant bounce.
That rally has now carried crude up to the 200-day moving average at $74.37 and briefly above it, but it was unable to reach the 20-day moving average at $75.55 before backing off. Prices are currently trading around $73.98. Prices have since backed off and are currently trading around $73.98.
The key now is whether crude can close above the 200-day moving average. A successful close above that level would confirm the rally and could open the door for a move toward the 38.2% Fib at 86.37. Failure to hold above the 200-day average would suggest that the current move is losing momentum and that additional consolidation or a pullback may be needed.
Momentum has now crossed cleanly to the upside, although it remains in oversold territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
74.37 – 200-day Moving Average
75.55 – 20-day Moving Average
86.37 – 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (April high to July low)
Support
67.04 – July 2 Reversal Bar Low
61.75 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil continues to move higher today, trading to an overnight high of 3.4436 and remaining near session highs. The overnight rally brought prices within striking distance of key resistance at the 50-day moving average (3.4843), with additional resistance located at the upper Bollinger Band (3.5475).
Momentum continues to strengthen and is beginning to move into overbought territory. With momentum becoming extended and a cluster of significant resistance levels just overhead, watch for the possibility of a near-term pullback or period of consolidation before the uptrend resumes.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.4660 – 50% Fibonacci Retracement (May high to June low)
3.4843 – 50-day Moving Average
3.5475 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.2176 – 50% Fibonacci Retracement (June low to overnight high)
3.1666 – 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement
3.0013 – June Low
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude oil spread is opening higher this morning, up 1.23 at 3.60 after pulling back from the overnight high of 3.95. The spread is currently trading right at the 20-day moving average, which will be an important level to watch on a closing basis. It has not posted a daily close above the 20-day moving average in more than three weeks.
Momentum has crossed to the upside and is beginning to strengthen, although it remains deeply oversold. This suggests there is still room for the recovery to continue before momentum returns to more neutral levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.64 – 20-day Moving Average
5.02 – 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (May high to July low)
6.27 – 50-day Moving Average
Support
2.66 – 50% Fibonacci Retracement (July low to overnight high)
2.36 – 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement
1.38 - July low
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is opening slightly higher this morning, up 0.018 at 3.285. Prices traded above the upper Bollinger Band overnight but were unable to hold those gains and have since moved back inside the Bollinger Bands. The multi-week consolidation pattern remains intact, with the market continuing to trade within its established range.
Momentum is sitting near its neutral level and is pointing sideways, indicating a lack of directional bias.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.327 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.377 – Double top from late June
3.417 – Double top from early June
Support
3.228 – 20-day moving average
3.191 – 50-day moving average
3.129 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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