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- Daily Energy Market Update July 6, 2026
Crude oil begins the July 6 session under pressure as the geopolitical risk premium continues to fade. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovering and Gulf exports increasing, market attention has shifted back toward supply fundamentals following the holiday weekend. Prices have also continued to retrace after filling the gap created at the start of the conflict.
Over the weekend, OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd increase in August production quotas, continuing the gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts. The group also reiterated that future production increases could be adjusted depending on market conditions and is scheduled to meet again on August 2.
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz continued to improve over the weekend, while U.S. customs data showed recent Saudi crude deliveries were supplied from barrels previously stored in the Bahamas, highlighting the ongoing normalization of export logistics. Tanker traffic also continued to recover as vessels resumed transiting the waterway.
With geopolitical concerns continuing to ease, trader focus is expected to shift toward this week's key data releases, which will be watched closely for signs of changes in supply and demand fundamentals and could provide the next major catalyst for crude oil prices.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude oil is opening the session down $0.35 at $68.35. July 2 finished with a bullish reversal candle after making a new low for the move and then closing above the previous session's close. The low of the reversal candle, $67.04, should serve as an important short-term pivot. Overnight price action saw the market trade down to only $67.82 before finding support, indicating that the pivot level is holding for now.
Momentum remains deeply oversold but has not yet provided confirmation that a short-term bottom is in place. Thursday's price action completed the gap created at the start of the war., removing an important technical feature from the chart.
Key Levels
Resistance
$74.28 – 200-day moving average
$77.41 – 20-day moving average
$78.98 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (April high to Thursday low)
Support
$67.04 – Low from Thursday's reversal bar (short-term pivot)
$61.07 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is opening higher to begin the U.S. session at 3.2448. Overnight price action pushed the market above the important 20-day moving average at 3.2654, but prices have since slipped back below that level. The market has not recorded a daily close above the 20-day moving average in more than three weeks, making it an important level to watch for confirmation of a trend change.
Momentum has moved out of oversold territory and continues to point higher, suggesting there is still room for the current rally to extend.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.2654 – 20-day moving average
3.2883 – 50-day moving average
3.6120 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.0013 – June 18 low (lowest low since the recent high)
2.9187 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.6917 – 200-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is opening nearly unchanged at 1.81. Overnight, it rallied to 2.08 before giving back those gains and pulling back.
Thursday's price action attempted to form a bullish reversal by making a new low for the move and closing above the previous session's low. However, it failed to close above the previous day's close, leaving the reversal signal incomplete.
Momentum remains deeply oversold and continues to point lower, suggesting there may still be room for additional downside before a meaningful bottom is established.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.27 – 200-day moving average
4.05 – 20-day moving average
5.02 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to Thursday's low)
Support
1.38 – Thursday's low
0.29 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is opening the U.S. session unchanged at 3.203. The 50-day moving average continues to act as a key support level. Thursday saw prices trade below the 50-day moving average and close back above it. So far today, the market has again traded below the average but is currently back above it.
Today marks the ninth session out of the last thirteen in which prices have traded down to the 50-day moving average but managed to close back above it. The market has not recorded a close below the 50-day moving average in more than two weeks, reinforcing the importance of this support level.
Momentum is pointing lower but is currently near its neutral level, making the signal less significant.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.221 – 20-day moving average
3.317 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.377 – Double top from the end of June
Support
3.183 – 50-day moving average
3.125 – Lower Bollinger Band
3.059 – Reversal bar low from June 15
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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