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- Daily Energy Market Update July 31, 2026
Crude oil traded modestly higher overnight as the market continued to balance geopolitical risks against ongoing diplomatic efforts surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Traders remained focused on developments affecting regional shipping routes, where uncertainty over future crude flows continues to support prices. While diplomatic discussions have helped limit additional upside, concerns over potential supply disruptions remain a key driver of the geopolitical risk premium.
Fundamentally, refined products continue to provide the strongest support for the energy complex. Goldman Sachs noted that diesel remains at the center of the current fuel supply squeeze as reduced global refinery activity, refinery outages, and tightening inventories continue to pressure middle distillate markets. Strong refining margins reinforce the view that refined products remain tighter than crude oil markets.
China also remains an important market to monitor. While crude inventories remain elevated, stockpiles have declined in recent months, and analysts expect additional draws if Middle East cargo delays continue. At the same time, lower gasoline and diesel inventories highlight continued tightness across refined product markets.
Looking ahead, traders will continue to focus on developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and other key energy shipping routes. Any progress toward easing tensions could reduce some of the risk premium in crude, while continued uncertainty around supply flows and tight refined product markets should continue to provide underlying support for the energy complex.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude is trading higher this morning, opening the U.S. session at 84.15 (7:00 a.m. ET), up 0.59. Prices initially moved lower overnight, reaching 81.06 before finding support just above the 20-day moving average. The market also briefly traded below the 50-day moving average before rebounding.
Momentum has moved into neutral territory and is beginning to flatten while still pointing lower. With momentum no longer in overbought or oversold territory, there is currently no strong near-term directional bias.
Key Levels
Resistance
87.50–87.70 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Friday-to-Monday gap
90.33 – 100-day moving average
92.81 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
82.20 – 50-day moving average
80.26 – 20-day moving average
76.06 – 200-day moving average
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Heating oil is also trading higher this morning, opening the U.S. session at 4.1755 (7:06 a.m. ET). Prices initially moved lower overnight before reversing higher. A close above 4.1291 would complete a bullish reversal on the daily chart, reinforcing the recent recovery from support.
Momentum remains in overbought territory but has crossed back to the upside, highlighting improving short-term momentum. While overbought conditions can limit upside over time, the current momentum structure continues to favor buyers in the near term.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.2888 – Last week's high
4.4616 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.8654 – 20-day moving average
3.5473 – 50-day moving average
3.4321 – 100-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is opening the U.S. session up 0.15 at 7.37 after trading as low as 6.50 overnight. Buyers stepped in well ahead of a key support zone, with the 20-day and 100-day moving averages converging near 6.02. The 50-day moving average sits just below at 5.64, creating a broad area of technical support should the spread weaken.
Momentum has moved out of overbought territory and has crossed back to the upside, indicating the recent pullback may be ending. Although momentum has moderated from extreme levels, the crossover suggests the short-term technical bias is turning constructive again.
Key Levels
Resistance
8.02 – Wednesday's high
9.57 – Last week's high (highest level since the July low)
10.24 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
6.02 – Converging 20-day and 100-day moving averages
5.64 – 50-day moving average
2.91 – 200-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGU26)
Natural gas is opening the U.S. session (8:22 a.m. ET) up 0.024 at 2.782. The market is beginning to show follow-through from the bullish divergence that developed at the recent low. This morning's rally has also pushed prices above the consolidation range that formed over the past few sessions.
Momentum has crossed to the upside and is beginning to move higher while remaining in oversold territory. The next important test is the bottom of the previous trading channel at 2.799, which served as support before breaking earlier this week and now represents initial resistance. A move back above that level would further strengthen the near-term technical outlook.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.799 – Bottom of the previous trading channel (now resistance)
2.887 – 20-day moving average
3.059 – 50-day moving average
Support
2.666 – Wednesday's bullish reversal low
2.636 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGU26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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