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- Daily Energy Market Update July 31,2025
Daily Energy Market Update July 31,2025
Liquidity Energy, LLC
WTI is down 36 cents September RB is down 1.62 cents September HO is up 0.46 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Crude prices have retreated today as the market focuses on the large crude supply increase seen in the DOE stats yesterday and the threat of tariffs looms as the deadline for deals approaches tomorrow. The pullback comes amid this week's strength due to worries over possible Russian oil sanctions, that would lessen supply. Data we highlight below shows jet fuel demand in the U.S. & Europe has been robust.
The DOE data showed a large build of 7.7 MMBBL for crude oil stocks as crude exports fell by 1.157 MMBPD. Gasoline supplies fell as demand again rose above 9 MMBPD. Gasoline demand rose by 185 MBPD to 9.152 MMBPD. Distillate supplies rose by a lot--3.635 MMBBL- as demand remained below that seen the prior 2 years. Even as distillate demand rose on the week by 262 MBPD. The total demand of 3.605 MMBPD lagged behind the prior 2 years' figures by 120 and 220 MBPD. The DOE data showed the hiighest EIA implied demand reading ever for jet fuel at 2.093 MMBPD, as per Tom Kloza, a noted oil analyst. He added that the jet fuel demand “blows previous records out of the water and represents first time US demand has ever topped 2 MMBPD.”
Jet fuel exports from South Korea, China and Southeast Asia to Europe likely hit a multi-year high in July as traders shipped out excess regional supply to cash in on higher European prices, according to shiptracking data and industry sources. Elevated exports to the west will continue to ease Asia’s supply glut and limit regional price weakness here. August exports to Europe from the East may ease as the arbitrage window has narrowed, as per one analytics firm. But, physical jet fuel prices in Northwest Europe in July have been on average $65 per ton higher than in Asia, compared with $50 per ton last month, LSEG data showed. Shipping costs fell in July from June. In Europe, the average number of daily flights for July so far is up 4% year-on-year and 3% higher than 2019 levels, data from Eurocontrol showed, underscoring robust demand. And, stockpiles of aviation fuel independently held in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub were at the lowest level seen since February this year, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed. China’s overall jet fuel and kerosene exports should remain elevated in the coming months as its top refiner Sinopec (OTC:SHIIY) is increasing output while demand from domestic flights is plateauing, analysts from consultancy FGE said in a note. Jet fuel exports remained the most profitable for Chinese refiners compared with other products, two China-based trade sources said. (Reuters)
The U.S. Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on Wednesday on over 115 Iran-linked individuals, entities and vessels, in a sign the Trump administration is doubling down on its “maximum pressure” campaign. The U.S. Treasury described the move as the most significant Iran-related sanctions action since 2018. A U.S. official said that Iran’s oil exports had already declined to around 1.2 million barrels per day, from 1.8 million bpd at the start of the year, after the administration imposed several smaller rounds of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil business.(Reuters)
The U.S. and S. Korea agreed on a 15% tariff deal ahead of the August 1 deadline for trade deals. Goods from South Korea briefly faced a 25% “reciprocal” tariff in April. Presdient Trump tweeted Wednesday :" The Deal is that South Korea will give to the United States $350 Billion Dollars for Investments owned and controlled by the United States." Much of the investment looks to be focused on shipbuilding ventures. (CNN)
The end of the month Reuters oil price survey of 37 analysts and economists has basically kept their projections for 2025 unchanged from last month's forecast. WTI is seen averaging $64.61, which is up 10 cents from last month's forecast. The Brent oil forecast for 2025 was lowered from last month by 2 cents to $67.64. But, the survey respondents see 2nd quarter Brent prices at $62.98. One economist was quoted saying : "We expect prices to see a decrease in the second half of 2025, driven by both slower demand growth and rising supply,".
The open interest for WTI futures on the CME rose by near 29,000 contracts in Wednesday's activity. Given the price action, we lean to this being more new length being established.
Goldman says that the oil rally is unlikely to last as supply pressure builds. Goldman expects Brent to retreat to the mid-$60s by year-end, as OECD inventories climb and nearly 0.9 MMBPD of new non-OPEC supply comes on stream. (Quantum Commodities)
The August RB & ULSD as well as the September Brent futures are having their last trading session today.
Energy Market Technicals
Even as the momentum for Rb & crude oil remains positive, the contracts have mean reversion set ups again today, thus cautioning bulls. The momentum for the September ULSD is trying to turn upward.
The WTI spot futures have highs at 70.51 and 70.41 from yesterday/today. These highs almost tested our resistance at 70.54-70.60. Above that resistance lies at 71.83-71.85. Support is seen at 68.45-68.52 and then at 67.65-67.70. The DC chart's upper bollinger band intersects at 70.13.

There is a double top on the September RB from yesterday/today at 2.2112/2.2107. Above that resistance is seen at 2.2243-2.2246. Support lies at 2.1513-2.1520. The upper bollinger band on the September daily chart intersects at 2.1984.

ULSD for September sees support at 2.3850-2.3875 and then at 2.3576-2.3581. Resistance comes in at 2.4436-2.4448 and then at 2.4640-2.4647.

Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is unchanged
NG prices is near unchanged now after slipping overnight with the following comments underscoring the tone of the market: "there just aren’t any meaningful, attractive bullish catalysts out there right now." "we are not trading August". Strong gas production, a slight slippage in LNG feed gas demand, a cooling down period in the weather in the coming days and an above normal storage injection due today all contributed to the weakness in prices over recent days.
September NG started its reign as the spot futures with weakness Wednesday as next day cash slid back under $3 on the prospect for cooler/below normal temperatures along the East Coast in the August 4-8 time period. Also the loss of some power at Freeport's LNG plant weighed on prices.
Yet, the weakness in natural gas prices masks the fact that yesterday saw the 2nd highest daily gas power burn on record, as per Celsius Energy data. This power burn came as otherwise of late, gas' portion of power generation has "not impressed" as it has ceded some of its share to coal and renewables.
The EIA gas storage is seen rising by 36 BCF as per the WSJ survey. That compares to last year's build of 18 BCF and the 5 year average build of 24 BCF. This survey estimate is well below some other estimates we have seen of +42 (Celsius Energy) and +48 BCF (NGI model).
Morgan Stanley sees upside to NG prices n 226, despite the recent weakness and the higher than average amount of gas in storage. Despite recent increases in drilling activity, investment levels are still below what the market needs to meet rising LNG demand into 2026. In addition, with prices back near $3, further rig additions may start to get deferred again. Morgan Stanley says : " we continue to forecast prices rising over $5, but now expect this to occur in 1H26 vs 2H25 prior.” (Investing.com)
European gas prices have rallied this week, mostly driven by the threat of competition in Asia, according to trading firm Mind Energy. In a recent note, analysts wrote that sweltering summer heat in East Asia has helped drive a three-day rally in TTF prices. East Asia LNG prices have ticked up above the $12/MMBtu range as cooling demand remained high, but have been partially capped by heightened coal consumption and additional spot cargoes from commissioning terminals like LNG Canada. (NGI)

Natural gas futures open interest on the CME rose by over 18,000 contracts in Wednesday's activity. We see this as mostly new short positions, which came along the strip from September to February.
Technically the momentum basis the NG DC chart is getting oversold. Support for the spot futures lies at the now double bottom from the August expiration at 2.984 and today's low at 2.989. Best support below that is seen at 2.858-2.859. Near term upside resistance comes in at 3.140-3.145.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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