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- Daily Energy Market Update July 30, 2026
Crude is trading slightly lower after a quieter overnight session as the market continues to balance renewed geopolitical risks against ongoing diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. While military activity and supply concerns remain supportive, reports of continued discussions surrounding regional shipping routes have helped limit further upside, leaving prices to consolidate after the recent rebound.
Underlying fundamentals remain supportive, particularly in refined products. Tight diesel markets, firm refining margins, and ongoing refinery disruptions continue to highlight that product markets remain tighter than crude itself, providing an underlying source of support for the energy complex.
Looking ahead, geopolitical developments will remain the primary near-term catalyst, with traders monitoring any changes in regional tensions, shipping conditions, and energy infrastructure risks. At the same time, the strength in refined products remains an important factor supporting the broader market backdrop.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude is opening the U.S. session little changed at 84.23. Overnight trading was relatively quiet, with the range roughly half the size of the previous few sessions. Price remained between the 50-day moving average and the Friday-to-Monday gap, suggesting the market is consolidating after this week's rebound.
Momentum has moved out of overbought territory and is approaching neutral but continues to point lower, indicating upside momentum has moderated. The Friday-to-Monday gap at 87.50–87.70 remains the first key resistance area to watch. A move through that zone would fill the gap and could open the door for a test of the 100-day moving average at 90.32.
Key Levels
Resistance
87.50–87.70 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Friday-to-Monday gap
90.32 – 100-day moving average
92.89 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
82.68 – 50-day moving average
79.50 – 20-day moving average
75.93 – 200-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Heating oil traded lower overnight and is opening the U.S. session at 4.1682. Trading activity was relatively quiet, with the overnight range less than half the size of the previous several sessions, reflecting a pause after this week's rebound.
Momentum remains in overbought territory but continues to point lower, indicating upside momentum is fading. Last week's high at 4.2888 remains the first key resistance level to watch.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.2888 – Last week's high
4.4778 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.8150 – 20-day moving average
3.7884 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (June low to last week's high)
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread traded lower overnight and is opening the U.S. session down 0.89 at 6.95. Price action remains within yesterday's range, leaving the spread on track to post an inside day following yesterday's rebound.
Momentum has moved out of overbought territory but remains elevated and continues to point lower, suggesting the recent rebound may still see further retracement before momentum returns to more neutral levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
8.00 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (last week's high to Tuesday's low)
9.57 – Last week's high
10.25 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
5.98 – 100-day moving average
5.71 – 50-day moving average
5.67 – 20-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGU26)
Natural gas is down 0.031 at 2.691 heading into the U.S. session (8:32 a.m. ET). Overnight trading was relatively quiet after prices opened slightly above yesterday's close and are currently trading on the daily low. Yesterday produced bullish technical signals, with price making a new low while momentum held a higher low, followed by a bullish reversal with the market closing above Tuesday's close. Together, these signals suggest yesterday's low may provide near-term technical support.
Momentum is moving sideways in oversold territory. A bullish crossover from current levels would strengthen the developing bullish technical picture, although confirmation from price action is still needed.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.799 – Bottom of the previous trading channel broken on Monday
2.899 – 20-day moving average
2.937 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (June high to yesterday's low)
Support
2.666 – Yesterday's low
2.628 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGU26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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