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- Daily Energy Market Update July 29, 2026
Crude oil rallied overnight as renewed geopolitical tensions prompted the market to rebuild part of the risk premium that had been unwound earlier in the week. The rebound followed reports that hostilities resumed after a brief lull, including Iranian missile attacks targeting U.S. forces and drone attacks aimed at Saudi energy infrastructure by Iran-backed groups. The renewed hostilities challenged expectations that tensions were beginning to ease and helped lift both Brent and WTI prices ahead of the U.S. session.
Despite the recovery, uncertainty remains elevated. Ongoing concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for further disruptions to regional energy infrastructure continue to support prices, while traders remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. At the same time, markets are looking ahead to today's Federal Reserve decision, with any shift in interest rate expectations likely to influence broader risk sentiment alongside developments in the Middle East.
The combination of renewed geopolitical risk and a busy macro calendar suggests volatility is likely to remain elevated. Traders will continue to monitor headlines from the Middle East, while also watching whether today's rebound can extend through nearby technical resistance or stalls after recovering from this week's sharp selloff.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude opened higher overnight and traded steadily higher throughout the session, with prices up 3.28 at 82.56 heading into the U.S. session. Yesterday, crude tested the 20-day moving average before rebounding to close at 79.26. The 77.15 level, which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July rally, provided key support. This morning's rebound stalled just below the 50-day moving average.
Momentum continues to ease from overbought levels but remains elevated. With momentum still above neutral, rallies may continue to encounter headwinds in the near term.
Key levels
Resistance
83.14 – 50-day moving average
90.41 – 100-day moving average
92.52 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
78.64 – 20-day moving average
77.15 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
75.80 – 200-day moving average
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Heating oil rallied steadily overnight and is opening the U.S. session at 4.1462, near the overnight high. Yesterday marked an inside day following the sharp two-day selloff, indicating the market may be consolidating after the recent decline.
Momentum remains in overbought territory but has crossed lower and continues to point down, indicating upside momentum is fading. With momentum still elevated, rallies may continue to encounter headwinds in the near term.
Key levels
Resistance
4.2888 – Last week's high
4.4517 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.7606 – 20-day moving average
3.6884 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
3.6339 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude oil spread (CLZ6/CLZ7) rallied 1.06 overnight to a high of 7.08 and is trading at 6.95 heading into the U.S. session. Yesterday, the spread tested a key area of technical support, closing between the converging 50-day and 100-day moving averages. It then opened above yesterday's close and traded steadily higher throughout the overnight session.
Momentum is beginning to move out of overbought territory but continues to point lower, suggesting upside momentum remains limited despite the overnight recovery.
Key levels
Resistance
8.07 – Friday's close (Monday gap)
9.57 – Last week's high
10.10 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
5.95 – 100-day moving average
5.76 – 50-day moving average
5.38 – 20-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGU26)
Natural gas opened lower overnight and is trading near the overnight low of 2.666 heading into the U.S. session. Since breaking below the bottom of its recent trading channel at 2.799 on Monday, prices have remained under pressure. The market continues to trade heavy despite momentum already being in oversold territory.
Momentum briefly crossed higher earlier this week as natural gas appeared it was breaking out to the upside, but that quickly reversed. Momentum has since crossed back to the downside and continues to point lower. While the latest price low is accompanied by bullish divergence, confirmation from price action is still needed before a more meaningful recovery can be expected.
Key levels
Resistance
2.799 – Bottom of the trading channel broken on Monday
2.920 – 20-day moving average
3.077 – 50-day moving average
Support
2.639 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGU26)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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