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- Daily Energy Market Update July 28, 2026
Crude oil extended its decline overnight as the market continued to unwind a portion of last week's geopolitical risk premium. Prices remain under pressure following the pause in direct military action between the U.S. and Iran, although the geopolitical outlook remains uncertain. Mixed messaging from U.S. and Iranian officials suggests the situation remains fluid, with markets continuing to react to developments surrounding the conflict and any potential diplomatic progress.
The tone was also influenced by reports of improving supply conditions, including the resumption of loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea export terminal after last week's disruption. Combined with easing geopolitical concerns, those headlines helped reinforce the recent shift in market sentiment.
The focus now turns to whether crude can stabilize near key technical support following the sharp two-day selloff. While geopolitical developments are likely to remain the primary catalyst in the near term, traders will also be watching for signs that the recent decline is beginning to attract buying interest or whether downside momentum continues to build.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
The selloff in crude oil continued in Europe. Prices opened lower and traded steadily lower throughout the session, with crude down 1.65 at 80.97 heading into the U.S. session. Yesterday's sharp decline pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, marking the first close below that level in a week.
Momentum continues to trend lower but remains in overbought territory, suggesting there is still room for the current pullback to extend before momentum returns to more neutral levels.
Key levels
Resistance
83.63 – 50-day moving average
87.68 – Gap
90.51 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
78.07 – 20-day moving average
77.15 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (July low to high)
75.69 – 200-day moving average
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil opened lower in Asia but recovered to 4.0545 heading into the U.S. session. Price action remained within yesterday's trading range, suggesting the market is consolidating after Monday's sharp decline.
Momentum remains overbought but has crossed lower, indicating upside momentum continues to fade. With momentum still above neutral levels, rallies may continue to face headwinds in the near term.
Key levels
Resistance
4.2888 – Last week's high (highest level since the June low)
4.4314 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.7131 – 20-day moving average
3.5217 – 50-day moving average
3.3907 – 100-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread (CLZ6/CLZ7) traded lower before recovering to near unchanged at 6.53 heading into the U.S. session. The overnight low of 6.09 formed a potential double bottom with yesterday's low. Initial support remains the area of technical confluence between 5.80 and 5.90, where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converge. That zone will be an important level to watch, particularly on a closing basis.
Momentum remains overbought but continues to move lower, suggesting there is still room for further consolidation or downside before momentum returns to more neutral levels.
Key levels
Resistance
9.57 – Last week's high (highest level since the July low)
10.03 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
5.80–5.90 – 50-day and 100-day moving averages
5.19 – 20-day moving average
2.78 – 200-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGU26)
Natural gas is trading lower this morning after breaking below the bottom of its recent trading range yesterday. Prices opened lower overnight and have remained under pressure, with natural gas down 0.057 at 2.732 heading into the U.S. session.
Momentum has crossed back to the downside and continues to trend lower, suggesting the near-term bias remains bearish. However, the latest low was accompanied by bullish divergence, with price making a lower low while momentum posted a higher low. Although this does not signal a reversal on its own, it can sometimes be an early indication that selling pressure is beginning to fade.
Key levels
Resistance
2.947 – 20-day moving average
3.087 – 50-day moving average
3.176 – 100-day moving average
Support
2.671 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGU26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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