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- Daily Energy Market Update July 23, 2026
Overnight trading expanded the market's focus beyond the Strait of Hormuz as attacks on Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea raised concerns that supply risks could spread to another critical shipping corridor. Brent extended its rally toward the $100-per-barrel level after Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels raised concerns that disruptions could spread beyond Hormuz to the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint. The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility that multiple export routes could be affected rather than a disruption confined to the Persian Gulf.
Despite the escalation, shipping data showed a modest improvement in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with vessel crossings doubling from the previous day. However, most of the transits remained linked to Iran, while commercial traffic from other exporters continued to be limited. At the same time, tanker movements through Bab al-Mandab remained active, making Saudi export flows through the Red Sea the next key indicator traders will be watching over the coming sessions.
Market positioning also continues to reinforce the bullish tone. Trading volume and open interest increased in both Brent and WTI futures, suggesting fresh participation is entering the market rather than the rally being driven solely by short covering. That combination of rising prices, volume, and open interest points to new money continuing to build long exposure despite increasingly overbought technical conditions.
For traders, the focus is no longer just whether Hormuz remains open. The more important question is whether the conflict broadens enough to threaten multiple shipping corridors simultaneously. Until there is greater clarity on the security of both Hormuz and the Red Sea, geopolitical developments are likely to remain the dominant driver of energy markets, with technical indicators taking a secondary role.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude is opening the U.S. session up 3.12 at 89.96 after another strong overnight move. Today's session marks the fourth consecutive day that prices have posted both a higher high and a higher low, underscoring the strength of the current uptrend. Overnight buying took crude to the 100-day moving average, where it stalled temporarily, but the market continues to trade near the session high.
Crude is currently trading above the upper Bollinger Band. While prices are becoming increasingly extended, buyers have shown little willingness to take profits as geopolitical developments continue to dominate market sentiment.
Momentum remains overbought, but it has had little impact on price action. As long as geopolitical tensions remain elevated, technicals are likely to take a back seat to headline-driven trading.
Key Levels
Resistance
90.26 – 100-day moving average
92.33 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (April high to July low)
98.30 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
89.31 – Upper Bollinger Band
84.61 – 50-day moving average
75.91 – 20-day moving average
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is opening the U.S. session sharply higher at 4.1869 after settling at 4.0661 yesterday. The market extended its rally overnight as continued geopolitical tensions supported buying across the energy complex.
Despite the strong move higher, prices are trading just below the upper Bollinger Band as the bands continue to widen in response to the recent increase in volatility. The expanding Bollinger Bands reflect the strength of the current trend while also highlighting the elevated volatility surrounding the market.
Momentum remains extremely overbought, but it continues to trend higher as escalating tensions surrounding Iran remain the dominant driver of price action.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.3302 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.5674 – 20-day moving average
3.4943 – 50-day moving average
3.3482 – 100-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude spread is opening the U.S. session relatively unchanged at 8.19, lagging the stronger gains seen in outright crude and heating oil. The spread did extend to a new overnight high of 8.55 before pulling back, but the overnight trading range was less than half the size of the ranges seen over the past several sessions, suggesting buying momentum may be beginning to moderate.
Despite the narrower range, the spread continues to trade near recent highs. Momentum remains overbought and is beginning to move sideways, but it has not yet produced a bearish crossover. Until momentum confirms a downside turn, the prevailing trend remains higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
8.55 – Overnight high
9.14 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
5.88 – 50-day moving average
5.80 – 100-day moving average
4.50 – 20-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
Natural gas is opening the U.S. session up 0.029 at 2.926. Overnight buying pushed prices above the trading channel that has contained the market for the past two weeks. The move also triggered a bullish momentum crossover from deeply oversold territory, providing the first meaningful technical improvement since the sharp selloff earlier this month.
Traders should watch for a daily close above channel resistance at 2.931 to confirm the breakout. A confirmed move above that level would increase the likelihood of a rally toward the July 9 breakdown level near 3.060.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.007 – 20-day moving average
3.060 – July 9 breakdown level (bottom of the multi-month trading channel)
Support
2.799 – Bottom of the recent trading channel
2.712 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGU26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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