Daily Energy Market Update July 17,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher -led by the products. Reuters cites geopolitical tension and "low inventories" for the uptick in prices today. But. some comments seen also point out the negative effect of the trade/tariff concerns that exist. 

The DOE data issued Wednesday showed a draw on crude oil, but builds in the products even as the refinery run rate fell. Crude supplies fell by 3.859 MMBBL as net crude imports fell by 395 MBPD. The EIA's accounting adjustment of a drop in supply of 1.388 MMBPD also helped lead to the crude oil draw. Refinery runs fell by 0.8%, which was more than the forecast for a drop of 0.2/0.5%. Gasoline supplies rose by 3.399 MMBBL as demand fell on the week by 670 MBPD to 8.489 MMBPD. This demand lagged behind that seen in the prior 2 years. As one analyst said :" investors are disappointed to see gasoline demand fall just after July 4 as we are now in the peak summer driving season."  Distillate supplies rose by 4.173 MMBBL, with demand falling on the week by 245 MBPD to a total 3.423 MMBPD. This demand lagged that seen in the prior 2 years. Yet, distillate supplies remain 21% below the 5 year average for the period, as per the DOE.

Phillips 66 was forced to shut most of its 258 MBPD Bayway refinery in New Jersey this week because of flooding and a loss of power. A computer that monitors emissions from the refinery's flare stack was damaged during flooding. There was no major damage to critical infrastructure. Reuters reporting says that Phillips 66 was actively purchasing refined products from the New York Harbor spot market since Tuesday.

On the supply side, drone attacks for a third day on oilfields in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have slashed crude output by 140 to 150 MBPD, two energy officials said on Wednesday, as infrastructure damage forced multiple shutdowns. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but Iraqi Kurdistan security sources said that initial investigations suggested that the drone attacks came from areas under the control of Iran-backed militias.  (Reuters)

We note a sizable increase in the January WTI/LO $50 and $60 put strikes on the CME from Wednesday's activity. This put spread traded $2.57 to $2.59.

Today is the last trading day for the August WTI options. The $65 call and put strikes have modest open interest, as does the $70 call. The strikes near to the current futures price do not have open interest amounts that would suggest any fireworks for the futures settlement today. /

Energy Market Technicals

The energy contracts are currently having inside trading days versus yesterday's price ranges. Technically, despite yesterday's selloff, the energies have positive momentum basis the September daily charts.

September WTI sees support at yesterday's low at 64.38. Resistance above lies at 66.06-66.12 and then at 67.51-67.55.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas- NG is up 5.7 cents
NG spot futures are up again today. Support has come in the past few sessions from expectations for heat into the end of the month and the strong LNG feed gas demand volume seen of late.

Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 US states would mostly remain hotter than normal through at least July 31 with the hottest days of the summer expected next week. In New England, extreme heat Wednesday caused energy prices to spike; spot gas prices soared by 61 per cent to $12.50/ MMBtu, their highest since February.  (Reuters)

A Reuters headline today notes that Freeport's LNG plant is ramping up and is thus heading back to full power, as per LSEG data.

The EIA gas storage data due out today is seen as a build of 46 to 47 BCF as per WSJ and Reuters surveys. This compares to last year's build of 18 BCF and the 5 year average build of 41 BCF.

On Wednesday, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 109.8 BCF/d this week to 107.6 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up a total of 2.8 BCF/d versus those seen Monday.  

Notable open interest increases seen from the CME from Wednesday's activity were in the September $2.00 put and the November $2.50 put strikes. The September $2.00 put was seen sold 2 times against the purchase of the $2.50 put at a cost of 0.8 cents to the $2.50 put buyer. The November $2.50 put traded 3.2 cents.

An article seen points out that natural gas storage facilities are not keeping up with production and that in the future that will present a problem as LNG exports rise and the expected demand from AI centers will overwhelm storage capabilities. Data centers and AI could create a spike in power demand, with their share of power consumption forecast from about 4.4 percent of U.S. electricity consumption in 2023 to as much as 12 percent by 2028, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Enverus analysis sees Gulf Coast LNG export demand rising by 10 BCF/d by the end of the decade and they add that this demand will come on stream "well before" new storage facilities are built. Natural gas production has risen by an average of 4.7 percent a year from 2013 to 2023, according to the American Gas Association. Underground natural gas storage capabilities, meanwhile, have grown by 0.1 percent annually from 2014 to 2023. But bringing underground storage online takes years and some environmental groups and neighbors of gas facilities worry about safety risks. The process to create salt-dome storage starts with water — lots and lots of water. Disposing of the extra salty water is another issue.  (eenews.net)

Technically momentum remains positive for the NG basis the DC chart as the stepladder up pattern continues. Resistance for the spot futures is seen at 3.635-3.644 and then at 3.747-3.751. Support is seen at the 3.500 area and then at 3.453-3.454.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC