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- Daily Energy Market Update July 15, 2026
The overnight session was defined by one theme: the market continues to price uncertainty rather than actual supply losses. Crude oil pushed to fresh one-month highs as geopolitical risk remained elevated, but the relatively measured price response suggests traders are assigning a premium to the possibility of future disruptions rather than reacting to an immediate shortage of physical barrels.
Attention remained squarely on the Strait of Hormuz after the United States reinstated its blockade on Iranian shipping. Vessel traffic through the corridor remains a fraction of normal levels, reinforcing concerns about the reliability of one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. Even without a significant reduction in global production, the combination of shipping delays, higher insurance costs, and uncertainty surrounding future flows has been enough to keep buyers willing to pay a geopolitical premium.
Fundamental data took a back seat to the geopolitical narrative. Inventory figures showed only a modest draw in U.S. crude stocks, but the market largely shrugged off the data as traders looked ahead to today's EIA report for a clearer picture of domestic supply conditions. At the moment, inventory data is influencing short-term positioning, while geopolitical headlines continue to dictate the broader direction of the market.
For now, the market appears to be transitioning from a momentum-driven rally to one that will require confirmation from events on the ground. As long as tensions remain elevated and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, traders are likely to maintain a risk premium in energy markets. However, with volatility elevated and prices having advanced sharply over the past several sessions, each new headline will be evaluated not only for its immediate impact but also for whether it represents an escalation or merely reinforces what is already reflected in prices.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude is up .73 this morning, trading at 80.07. The overnight trading range was relatively narrow compared with the previous two sessions, during which crude rallied nearly 10.00.
Price action has formed an inside day, suggesting a pause in momentum following the recent surge. Crude has also moved back inside the Bollinger Bands after briefly trading above the upper band yesterday and again overnight.
Momentum indicators continue to trend higher and are beginning to enter overbought territory, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact, although the market may become more vulnerable to profit-taking or consolidation.
Key Levels
Resistance
80.26 – Upper Bollinger Band
86.33 – 50-day Moving Average
89.21 – 100-day Moving Average
Support
74.67 – 200-day Moving Average
73.01 – 20-day Moving Average
65.72 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is trading modestly higher overnight at 4.0261. Prices continue to trade above the upper Bollinger Band after posting two consecutive closes above the band, reflecting the strength of the recent rally.
The overnight trading range was relatively narrow compared with the previous two sessions, suggesting the market is consolidating after its sharp advance.
Momentum indicators remain in overbought territory but continue to point higher, indicating the uptrend remains intact and the rally could extend further before signs of exhaustion emerge.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.0774 – Overnight High
Support
3.9547 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.5043 – 50-day Moving Average
3.3278 – Confluence zone where the 20-day and 100-day Moving Averages converge
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude spread opened higher overnight but has since eased back and is trading near yesterday's settlement at 5.97. The overnight session produced a relatively narrow trading range, forming an inside day while the spread continues to trade above the upper Bollinger Band following two consecutive closes above the band.
Momentum indicators are beginning to move into overbought territory but have not yet crossed into extreme levels, suggesting the recent advance may still have room to extend before becoming overstretched.
Key Levels
Resistance
6.15 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (May high to July low)
7.28 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
5.71 – Upper Bollinger Band
5.47 – 100-day Moving Average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
Natural gas opened higher overnight but has since pulled back to trade near yesterday's settlement at 2.901. After four consecutive closes below the lower Bollinger Band, today's price action has moved back inside the bands, suggesting downside momentum may be easing.
Momentum indicators remain in oversold territory and are beginning to turn higher, although they have not yet generated a bullish crossover. This suggests the recent decline may be losing momentum, but confirmation of a reversal is still needed.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.041 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (July high to yesterday's low)
3.101 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
3.161 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.883 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.850 – Double bottom (Monday and Tuesday)
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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