Daily Energy Market Update July 15,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies were lower overnight as President Trump's deadline out 50 days for a ceasefire deal in the Ukraine conflict is seen as not tightening oil supply presently.  Currently, the crude oil price is down slightly, but the products are higher.

President Trump boosted military support for Ukraine and threatened to impose 100% tariffs if the hostilities don’t end with a deal in 50 days. That effectively represents secondary sanctions on countries buying oil from Russia, notably China and India. (Bloomberg) "The lack of any immediate action and the belief that these threats won’t be carried out help to explain the market reaction." However, if Trump does follow through, and the tariff is implemented effectively, it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market. Russia exports more than 7 MMBPD of crude oil and refined products. If effectively enforced, the global market would be pushed into a large deficit.  Given Trump’s desire for low oil prices, we don’t believe Trump would be keen to follow through with this threat, ING comments. 

China's 2nd quarter GDP rose by 5.2% in data released today. This was better then the Reuters poll calling for a +5.1% growth number. But, 2nd quarter GDP fell from the 1rst quarter pace of +5.4%.  The 2nd half of 2025 growth in GDP is seen as weakening as "exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall and consumer confidence remains low." One bright spot was the fact that industrial output rose in June by 6.8% year on year, which was the best pace since March. But, retail sales slowed to +4.8% from +6.4% in May. That was the lowest increase since the January-February number. And also seen as a negative was the steep drop in PPI prices in June of 3.6%, which is the largest drop since July of 2023. The Reuters poll was for a decline of 3.2%.   (Reuters)

OPEC --in its monthly oil report--has kept its 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts unchanged at +1.29 and 1.28 MMBPD, respectively. OPEC also kept their Non OPEC+ supply growth forecasts unchanged at +0.81 MMBPD in 2025 and +0.73 MMBPD in 2026. OPEC says that their monthly output in June rose by 220 MBPD to 27.235 MMBPD.

The EU plans to hold off on retaliatory tariffs for now, with the bloc’s top trade commissioner saying he intended to speak with his U.S. counterparts. Trump said in a press conference earlier on Monday that the U.S. is open to trade talks with Europe. (WSJ)

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum for the RB & crude oil is positive basis the DC charts, while that for HO is neutral.

WTI spot futures see support at 66.15-66.21, which is just below the overnight low of 66.27. Below that we see next support at 65.22-65.29. Resistance comes in at 68.32-68.37 and then at 68.91-68.94.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 3.3 cents
NG is lower on  the back of continued strong production and the prospect for weaker demand. Bloomberg data indicates a slight drop in feed gas volume today.

A tropical disturbance heading into the Gulf of Mexico may disrupt some LNG export gas volume. Total feed gas flows to US LNG export terminals are down 0.41 BCF/d on the day at 15.26 BCF/d today, Bloomberg shows. This compares to the 30-day average of 16.61 BCF/d, as per Bloomberg data. The drop comes from lower flows to Corpus Christi. Feed gas volume to the 8 major LNG export plants rose on Monday to a 3 month high of 16.6 BCF/d, as per Reuters reporting. July volume has averaged 15.8 BCF/d, up from June's volume of 14.3 BCF/d, as per Reuters.

LSEG on Monday forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 107.8 BCF/d this week to 106.8 BCF/d next week. These forecasts are down a total of 1.1 BCF/d from those seen Friday.

Production remains "strong' with July average production of 106.8 BCF/d, up from June's record of 106.4 BCF/d. 

The Desk's EOS survey for end October natural gas is calling for storage to be at 3.915 TCF, which aligns with the EIA's STEO estimate seen a week ago of 3.910 TCF.

In Monday's activity in NG/LN options on the CME, there was a notable open interest increase in the August $3.70 and $3.90 call strikes. This was due to trades of 5,000 contracts in the $3.70/$3.90 call spread between 30 and 35 cents.  

Technically NG has positive momentum basis the DC chart as the contract is currently having an inside trading day versus yesterday's price range. Support for the spot futures is seen at 3.366-3.372 and then at 3.335-3.340. Resistance lies at 3.511-3.513 and then at 3.574-3.576.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC