- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update July 14, 2026
Crude oil extended Monday's rally overnight as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to drive markets. WTI climbed above $80 while Brent traded above $86 after President Trump announced the reimposition of a U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping and proposed a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The developments have added to the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.
The market remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic reportedly fell to its lowest level in two months as ship operators responded to the heightened security risks. While exports continue to move through the region, concerns over potential disruptions to one of the world's most important oil transit routes remain the primary catalyst behind the latest rally.
The sharp move higher comes despite expectations that additional supply could eventually reach the market from producers such as the UAE. For now, however, supply fundamentals have taken a back seat as traders react to rapidly changing geopolitical headlines and the potential for further escalation in the Middle East.
Heading into the U.S. session, market direction is expected to remain headline-driven, with traders closely monitoring developments surrounding U.S.-Iran military activity, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and any signs that the conflict could begin to materially disrupt physical crude exports.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude oil is up 2.58 at 80.72. The rally has pushed crude nearly $10 higher from Friday's close to today's overnight high. The overnight move stalled near the upper Bollinger Band, which is acting as the first area of technical resistance.
Momentum has moved back into neutral territory and continues to point higher, suggesting there is still room for the rally to extend if prices can break above nearby resistance.
Key Levels
Resistance
86.37 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (April high to July low)
86.80 – 50-day moving average
89.09 – 100-day moving average
Support
74.60 – 200-day moving average
73.11 – 20-day moving average
65.40 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is also trading sharply higher overnight at 3.9775. Following another bullish close yesterday above the upper Bollinger Band, prices showed no meaningful pullback overnight, rallying to a high of 4.0242. Heating oil continues to outperform crude oil on a relative basis.
Momentum remains in overbought territory but has turned higher after briefly crossing lower two sessions ago. The renewed upside crossover suggests that, despite overbought conditions, the rally may still have room to extend.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.0242 – Today's high
Support
3.8237 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.4959 – 50-day moving average
3.3100 – Confluence of the 20-day and 100-day moving averages
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude spread is opening the U.S. session up 0.27 at 5.90. The overnight rally carried the spread to a high of 6.47 before prices pulled back. Yesterday's close finished above the upper Bollinger Band, and all of the overnight price action has remained above that level.
The spread is now testing a key area of technical resistance, with the upper Bollinger Band, the 50-day moving average, and the 100-day moving average clustered together. The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the May high to the July low also comes in at 6.15, adding to the significance of this resistance zone.
Momentum has moved back into neutral territory and continues to point higher, suggesting there is still room for the rally to extend if the spread closes above this resistance cluster.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.95 – 50-day moving average
6.15 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
7.28 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
5.42 – 100-day moving average
5.36 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.17 – 20-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
Natural gas is down 0.018 to start the session at 2.879. So far, price action is confined to an inside day following the sharp three-day selloff that began after last Thursday's breakdown.
The past three sessions have all closed below the lower Bollinger Band, and today's price action has remained below the band as well, keeping the technical outlook bearish. Momentum has moved into oversold territory but continues to point lower, suggesting there is still room for the decline to extend.
The first signs of a potential bounce would be a close back inside the Bollinger Bands or a bullish crossover in momentum.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.914 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.974 – Reversal bar low from early April
Support
2.847 – Yesterday's low
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply