Daily Energy Market Update July 14,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are up on supply worries associated with possible U.S. sanctions against Russia, as the market awaits a major statement from President Trump this week regarding Russia. Higher Chinese crude imports were also seen as supportive for oil prices.

Trump is expected to make a ‘major statement’ on Russia, likely to include new weapons shipments to Ukraine and the possible endorsement of sanctions on Russia. President Trump announced on Sunday that he will send Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine. President Trump is frustrated with President Putin over the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine. To push Russia into serious peace talks with Ukraine, a bipartisan US bill proposing new sanctions on Russia gained support in Congress last week. Meanwhile, European Union envoys are close to finalizing their 18th round of sanctions against Russia. This package is expected to include a lower price cap on Russian oil, according to four EU sources after a Sunday meeting. (Oanda Group)

China’s crude oil imports surged to 12.14 MMBPD in June, marking a 7.4% year-on-year increase and a 7.1% increase from May, driven by a sharp rise in deliveries from Saudi Arabia and Iran, Reuters reported on Monday. The spike reflects both restocking after refinery maintenance and opportunistic buying by independent refiners amid steep discounts on sanctioned barrels. Worth noting is the fact the June crude oil arrivals were likely purchased many weeks prior in April, when oil prices fell to 4 year lows. The June arrivals were the most on a daily basis since August of 2023.

An S&P survey shows OPEC+ output rose by 600 MBPD in June to a total 41.79 MMBPD. It was the highest total production recorded by the alliance since December 2023. Saudi Arabia's output rose by 400 MBPD. Saudi Arabia said it was fully compliant with its OPEC+ output target in June, after the IEA reported the Kingdom exceeded its quota by 430 MBPD.  The Saudi energy ministry said that the marketed crude supply in June was 9.352 MMBPD, in line with the agreed quota. While production briefly exceeded supply, the additional volumes were not marketed domestically or internationally but redirected as a contingency measure”, the Saudi energy ministry said in its statement. The ministry explained in the statement that the brief excess in production would be redirected as a contingency measure to build domestic inventories, optimize east-west flows and reposition barrels to offshore storage hubs under long-term delivery strategies.  (S&P Global/Quantum Commodities/Reuters)

CFTC data seen Friday for the week ended Tuesday July 8 showed money managers reduced their net length in WTI, while adding to it in RB & ULSD. Net length in WTI futures/options on ICE/CME combined fell by 29,318 contracts, mostly due to longs being sold on the CME. The RB net length position rose by 2,694 and in ULSD it rose by 5,800 contracts. In each of those contracts, longs were bought and shorts sold. ING reports that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 55,630 lots over the last reporting week, driven by fresh longs entering the market. Data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE gasoil by 12,064 lots. (ING)

On Friday in LO / WTI options, over 14,000 contracts of the August $71 / $73 call spreads traded between 22 and 26 cents. Based on CME open interest data, these trades initiated positions in those strikes.

The Baker Hughes oil rig count issued Friday showed a decrease of 1 unit.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum is positive for the energies as they have risen today to their best value in 3 weeks.

Resistance for the spot WTI futures is seen at 70.22-70.29 and then at 71.83-71.85. Support comes in at 67.89-67.95.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 10.7 cents
NG spot futures are up strongly on a hotter forecast for the end of the month and the strong LNG feed gas volume seen of late.

Celsius Energy reports that over the weekend, weather models trended hotter, especially for the last 10 days of the month. 14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) for July 14-27 are back at 5 year highs for the period, they add.

Saturday's LNG feedgas demand rose to 16.4 BCF/d, the highest since April 14 and up an impressive +5.2 BCF/d vs last year, countering gains in production. Both Corpus Christi & Plaquemines are right at record highs. (Celsius Energy) July feed gas volume has averaged 15.7 BCF/d, up from June's volume of 14.3 BCF/d. (Reuters)

Early estimates for the EIA gas storage data due this week are calling for a build of 47.5 to 49 BCF. This compares to last year's +18 BCF build and the 5 year average build of 41 BCF.

In Asia, August JKM prices increased by 25.6 cents/MMBtu week over week to $12.758/MMBtu on July 11, supported by strong demand due to heatwaves in North Asia and the closure of the arbitrage window. While Asian traders are wrapping up August trades, the September market may see spillover demand from August, traders said. The traders said the supply is limited because the arbitrage window from the US remains shut. US cargoes might start arriving in September due to higher Asian prices, according to the traders. China remained quiet in the spot market because the current spot prices of $12/MMBtu were higher than domestic prices. (Platts)  “An increase in spot purchases from buyers such as Japan and South Korea have been triggered by declining inventories,” analysts at ANZ Research say. “LNG inventories held by Japanese utilities slid to their lowest in almost two months amid strong power consumption.” (WSJ)

Strength in Asia is supporting European LNG/gas prices as the 2 regions compete for supply, as per Bloomberg commentary. Additionally, European natural-gas prices have risen in early trade as higher temperatures boost demand for cooling and traders grow wary of potential U.S. sanctions on Russia. Potential sanctions could restrict Russian LNG flows to Asia, tightening global supplies. (WSJ) Technically, the TTF futures price has been in a stepladder pattern for the past 6 sessions. There is a gap above the market from 37.100 to 40.200. Currently, TTF spot futures are trading near Euro 36/mwh. Support for the spot contract is seen just above 33 Euros.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC