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- Daily Energy Market Update July 13, 2026
Crude oil is trading higher to start the week as traders continue to price in geopolitical risk in the Middle East following another round of U.S. strikes against Iran over the weekend. WTI rallied above $75 overnight before pulling back into the U.S. open, while uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to support prices.
Commercial traffic continues to move through the Strait, with many vessels transiting via U.S.-supported routes along Oman's coast following several reported attacks on merchant ships over the past week. The market continues to price in a geopolitical risk premium despite the fact that major disruptions to physical oil exports have yet to materialize.
Separately, the UAE reported a sharp increase in June crude production after leaving OPEC, with output rising to roughly 3.8 million barrels per day. The increase highlights the potential for additional supply to reach the market over time, although traders remain far more focused on geopolitical developments than on changes to the longer-term supply outlook.
For now, price action is expected to remain driven by headlines surrounding U.S.-Iran military activity, the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether any disruption to regional exports develops.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude oil is up 2.26 at 73.66 as the U.S. session begins. After gapping higher on the overnight open, prices rallied to an intraday high of 75.08 before pulling back toward the opening level.
The key technical level to watch is the 200-day moving average at 74.50. Crude traded above this level overnight but has since fallen back below it, making it an important area of near-term resistance.
Momentum indicators have moved out of oversold territory and continue to trend higher, suggesting improving bullish momentum.
Key Levels
Resistance
74.50 – 200-day moving average
81.46 – Upper Bollinger Band
86.37 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (April high to July 2 low)
Support
73.10 – 20-day moving average
67.04 – July 2 low
64.73 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating Oil is also opening higher at 3.6705. Price opened at 3.6128 and traded steadily higher throughout the overnight session.
Friday's close finished back inside the Bollinger Bands after spending three consecutive sessions (including Friday) trading above the upper band. This morning, however, prices have moved back above the upper Bollinger Band, which comes in at 3.6477.
Momentum remains in overbought territory and has begun to roll over, with the indicator crossing lower. This suggests the rally from the June 18 low may be becoming stretched and could be vulnerable to consolidation or a near-term pullback.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.7714 – Wednesday's spike high and the highest closing level in several weeks
3.9306 – Double top from May 20
Support
3.6476 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.4875 – 50-day moving average
3.2702 – Mid Bollinger Band (20-day moving average)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude spread is opening up 0.96 at 3.78. The overnight rally pushed prices above the 20-day moving average at 3.07. Although the spread has traded above this level during each of the past three sessions, it has not posted a close above it in several weeks.
A close above the 20-day moving average would be an important technical development, suggesting momentum is building and opening the door for a move toward 4.88, the upper Bollinger Band, followed by 5.98, the 50-day moving average.
Momentum has moved out of oversold territory and is now in neutral, but it continues to point higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.88 – Upper Bollinger Band
5.02 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (mid-May to early July)
5.98 – 50-day moving average
Support
3.07 – 20-day moving average
2.35 – 200-day moving average
1.25 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
Natural gas is trading inside Friday's range following a sharp two-day selloff. It is opening down 0.047 at 2.893. The notable feature of the selloff has been the lack of any meaningful bounce following Thursday's and Friday's breakdown.
Natural gas has closed below the lower Bollinger Band for the past two trading sessions and is currently trading below it again this morning. The lower Bollinger Band comes in at 2.964, making it the first level to watch on any rebound.
Momentum is beginning to move into oversold territory but continues to point lower, suggesting there are still no technical signs that a meaningful bounce is developing.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.965 – Lower Bollinger Band
3.060 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (last week's high to this week's low)
3.116 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.874 – Friday's low and today's low
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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