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- Daily Energy Market Update July 10, 2026
Crude oil is trading steady as the market continues to weigh renewed Middle East tensions against the lack of a major disruption to physical supply flows. Recent Middle East developments have kept a geopolitical risk premium in the market, but prices have been unable to sustain a significant move higher as traders assess whether the situation will escalate further.
The key focus remains on whether the latest developments will impact crude exports or shipping activity through the region. For now, the market appears to be assuming that flows will continue unless there is a direct impact on production or transportation infrastructure.
The International Energy Agency highlighted that the outlook for a shift toward a more balanced-to-surplus oil market remains dependent on continued recovery in global supply. While expectations for increased supply ahead continue to limit upside, renewed Middle East instability could delay that transition.
For now, crude remains caught between geopolitical risk supporting prices and expectations of improving supply limiting upside. Traders will continue to monitor whether the latest tensions develop into a meaningful supply concern or remain contained.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude oil is opening down 0.06 at 72.00 after yesterday's sharp selloff. Prices have stabilized this morning following the decline, with resistance emerging near the confluence of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
The 20-day moving average has now crossed below the 200-day moving average, reinforcing the importance of the 200-day moving average as overhead resistance. While this crossover is a lagging signal, it reflects the recent deterioration in the intermediate-term trend. The key technical question now is whether crude can reclaim and close back above the 200-day moving average. A successful close above that level would suggest the recent rally still has room to extend, while continued failures below it would keep the broader bearish trend intact.
Momentum is beginning to move out of oversold territory while continuing to point higher, indicating that downside momentum is fading even as the longer-term trend remains under pressure.
Key Levels
Resistance
73.82 – 20-day moving average
74.46 – 200-day moving average
84.31 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
67.04 – July 2 reversal bar low
63.32 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating Oil (Continuous Contract)
Heating oil is opening the U.S. session lower at 3.5375. Yesterday, prices retraced a portion of the previous day's rally, closing back inside the upper Bollinger Band after finishing above it the day before. Overnight selling found support just above the 50-day moving average, making that level an important near-term pivot.
A close back below the 50-day moving average (3.4885) would signal that the recent rally is losing momentum and could open the door for a deeper retracement of the multi-day advance.
Momentum has moved into overbought territory and is beginning to roll over, suggesting the rally has become stretched and upside momentum is starting to fade.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.6022 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.7714 – Wednesday's high
3.9306 – Double top from mid-May
Support
3.4885 – 50-day moving average
3.2955 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (June 18 low to Wednesday's high)
3.2602 – 20-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is opening the session up 0.12 at 3.01. Price action is forming an inside day following yesterday's advance, with the market continuing to consolidate just below the 20-day moving average.
The 20-day moving average has acted as resistance for several weeks, with the spread repeatedly failing to close above it. A sustained close above this level would mark an important technical improvement and could open the door for a move toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the 200-day moving average (2.33) remains key support. Holding above that level would keep the recent recovery intact, while a break back below it would shift the technical outlook back to bearish.
Momentum has begun to move out of oversold territory and continues to point higher, suggesting the recent recovery still has support from improving momentum.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.01 – 20-day moving average
5.02 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to July 2 low)
5.57 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
2.33 – 200-day moving average
1.38 – July reversal bar low
0.86 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
Natural gas is opening down 0.029 at 2.983 after yesterday's significant selloff. After spending the past three months locked in a trading range and failing to sustain 18 breakout attempts since late April, yesterday's move marked the first convincing break below the range. Prices closed below the lower Bollinger Band, the 20-day moving average, and the 50-day moving average, suggesting the technical picture has shifted to the downside.
Unlike previous failed breakdowns, there has been little buying interest overnight. Prices extended the move lower, briefly trading below the year-to-date low of 2.974 before recovering back toward yesterday's settlement. The lack of an immediate bounce increases the likelihood that this move is more than another false breakout, although confirmation is still needed.
Momentum is pointing lower and beginning to move into oversold territory. While that suggests downside momentum is building, traders should also be mindful that oversold conditions can eventually slow the pace of the decline. For now, the key level remains the year-to-date low at 2.974. A sustained break below that level would strengthen the case that the multi-month range has finally resolved to the downside.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.037 – Lower Bollinger Band
3.186 – 50-day moving average
3.203 – 20-day moving average
Support
2.974 – Year-to-date low
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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