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- Daily Energy Market Update July 1, 2026
Overnight trading was relatively quiet across the energy complex, with crude oil under modest pressure as market participants continued to monitor developments surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations. Sentiment remained focused on evolving geopolitical developments and their potential impact on global supply expectations.
Attention also remained on shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel traffic has continued to recover following recent disruptions. The increase in tanker movements suggests shipping conditions are continuing to normalize, although activity has not yet fully returned to recent highs.
The market is also looking ahead to today's U.S. inventory data after industry figures released overnight pointed to another decline in crude stockpiles. At the same time, refined products continue to draw attention as refinery operations and export flows remain key factors influencing product markets.
Natural gas traded within its recent range overnight, with no major fundamental developments driving price action. Overall, markets remain focused on incoming inventory data and geopolitical headlines for the next directional catalyst.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Price initially broke below the multi-day support level at $68.60 but has since traded back above it. The key will be where the market closes today. A close below support would confirm that the recent consolidation has broken to the downside, while a recovery back into the range would suggest the breakdown was a false move.
Momentum remains at multi-year lows and continues to move sideways. Indicators have crossed back and forth several times but show no meaningful sign of turning higher or breaking out of oversold territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
74.24 – 200-day moving average
80.02 – 20-week moving average
87.09 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to overnight low)
Support
68.50 – Bottom of the recent consolidation zone
67.83 – Gap from the start of the war
61.99 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Heating oil is opening the U.S. session at 3.2933. Price continues to build a constructive pattern, with yesterday marking the fifth consecutive session of higher lows. Today's low has also held above yesterday's low, extending that streak. The market is now approaching the 20-day moving average at 3.3174, a key pivot level that it has not closed above in more than three weeks. A close above this level would improve the near-term technical outlook and suggest the recovery is gaining traction.
Momentum continues to improve after moving out of oversold territory and is still pointing higher, indicating there is additional room for the rally before momentum reaches the neutral zone.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.3174 – 20-day moving average
3.3563 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to June 18 low)
3.4660 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
3.0013 – Most recent low and where the current bounce began
2.8874 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.6821 – 200-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOQ6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is opening down 0.26 at 2.32. Price action tested the 200-day moving average again at 2.25 but continues to hold above it after briefly trading below. This marks the fifth time in the last six sessions that the market has tested the 200-day moving average and held, reinforcing it as an important support level.
Momentum has turned higher and appears to be building. With momentum still in oversold territory and pointing higher, while price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average, the market has the potential to bounce from current levels. A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would be an important signal that the near-term outlook has turned more bearish.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.65 – 20-day moving average
5.32 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May high to last week's low)
6.39 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.25 – 200-day moving average
0.70 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGQ6)
Natural gas is opening down 0.05 at 3.228.
Price action continues to trade back and forth around the 20-day moving average, with no signs of breaking out of the recent trading range. The Bollinger Bands continue to tighten, highlighting the decline in volatility and suggesting the market remains in consolidation.
Momentum has crossed lower, but the signal is less meaningful since the crossover occurred from a neutral level rather than from overbought territory. The Bollinger Bands have provided a reliable guide to support and resistance over the past several weeks, with the market failing to produce a closing price outside either band during that time.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.346 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.375 – Double top from last week
3.417 – Double top from early June
Support
3.183 – 200-day moving average
3.118 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGQ26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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