Daily Energy Market Update January 9,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as tension mounts due to events in Iran, Russia and Venezuela.

Civil unrest in Iran and concerns about the spread of the Russia-Ukraine war to Russian oil exports have increased supply worries. The demonstrations, which began in Tehran last month, have spread to all of Iran's 31 provinces. Analysts say that the protests highlight a deeper disillusionment with the Shi'ite status quo. Authorities have tried to maintain a dual approach to the unrest, saying protests over the economy are legitimate and will be met by dialogue, while meeting some demonstrations with tear gas amid violent street confrontations. A nationwide internet blackout was reported in Iran on Thursday. (Reuters)

The Russian military said on Friday that it had fired its hypersonic Oreshnik missile as part of a massive strike overnight at targets in Ukraine. The targets included energy infrastructure supporting Ukraine's military-industrial complex, the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.  The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday rejected the latest US-backed offering to end the Russia-Ukraine war, issuing a blistering rebuff that threatens to blow up President Trump’s peace plan. A terse statement from Moscow’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs slammed the US-European proposal for security assurances for Ukraine, saying the protection plan amounts to “a true axis of war.” One EU foreign policy official said: ""Putin doesn't want peace, Russia's reply to diplomacy is more missiles and destruction. This deadly pattern of recurring major Russian strikes will repeat itself until we help Ukraine break it." (BBC/Reuters/NY Post)  Yesterday, a Russia-bound oil tanker Elbus experienced a drone attack in the Black Sea, Reuters reports.

The US is attempting to seize another tanker fully loaded with oil, this time off the waters of Trinidad. Yet, Chevron is loading crude cargoes bound at the fastest pace in seven months, mostly bound for P66 and Valero refineries on the US Gulf Coast, per Bloomberg. Chevron loaded 1.68 MMBBL of Venezuelan crude so far this month, the most since May 2025 and five times more than a month ago, according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.

President Trump plans to use Venezuela’s vast crude reserves to establish control of most of the western hemisphere’s oil in an attempt to drive the market price down to about $50 a barrel, according to WSJ reports citing senior Trump officials.  As well as driving market prices lower, officials reportedly claimed Trump’s plans to control Venezuela’s oil reserves include cutting Russia and China’s access to the South American country.

US Non Farm Payroll data for December issued this morning showed 50,000 new jobs added. The forecast was for 70 to 73,000 new jobs to have been added. The revisions to the October and November  jobs data saw a drop of 76,000 jobs from the original data releases. Is this indication of a "cooling" jobs market enough to cause the Fed to lower interest rates? WTI spot futures fell off about 10 cents shortly after the data was released.

Inflation data from China seen overnight was seen as supportive. The CPI for December rose to 0.8% from 0.7% in November. The 0.8% December reading was right in line with forecast. (Investing.com)

The US national retail gasoline price has fallen again to a fresh low for recent data supplied by the AAA. Today's average is $2.807; one month ago it was $2.945 and one year ago it was $3.069.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum for the energies basis the DC charts is positive, as the contracts are well off the lows seen earlier this week.

Spot WTI futures see support at 56.60-56.65 and then at 55.76-55.82. Resistance at 58.13-58.18 has been pierced. Next resistance lies at 58.87-58.88. Next resistance above is seen at the 59.97 area.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 8.5 cents at $3.322
NG futures are lower now after attempting to rally overnight. Weather forecasts are still not showing sufficient cold temperatures in the near term to spark a significant rally.

Forecaster WSI said Thursday that near-term forecasts show broad swaths of above-normal temperatures across the western and central US over the next week. Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 23. (Reuters)

The EIA gas storage data issued Thursday showed a draw of 119 BCF, which was at the upper end of forecasts. Total storage fell to 3.256 TCF. This is -123 BCF/-3.64% versus last year's level, but +31 BCF/+0.96 % versus the 5 year average. But, as per Celsius Energy analysis, the next 4 weeks storage data will see the surplus to the 5 year average rise by 381 BCF.

On Thursday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 132.0 BCF/d this week to 133.6 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up a total of 2.0 BCF/d from those seen Wednesday.

Celsius Energy points out that the gas to coal switching that was very evident in 2025 has stopped, with the natural gas share of fossil fuel (coal + gas) consumption now consistently above year-ago levels. Gas-fired generation is expected to rebound with 1.6% growth in 2026 as coal consumption resumes its decline.

Open interest data for NG futures from the CME for Thursday's activity saw an increase of 20,663 contracts. We see this as mostly new shorts, with notable increases in July and October. Those increases fit with notable large futures and option trades seen. 3,000 contracts of the October 2026 January 2027 spread traded at 97.7 cents. 2,000 contracts of the May October 2026 spread traded 58.2 cents. In the options, the July/October 3 month CSO traded with the minus 5 cent call having been sold against buying of the minus 15 cent put at a cost of 0.5 cents. The July October spread settled Thursday at minus 8.7 cents. The October options traded in size. 5,000 lots of the $3.25/$2.75 put spread were purchased against selling of the $4.50 call at a cost of 0.2 cents to the put spread buyer with .43 delta penultimate October futures bought at $3.55.

Technically the DC chart based momentum for NG spot futures is oversold, but at present is neutral. The price pattern for this week shows a sideways range bound commodity, even as support at 3.355-3.357 has been pierced. Next support lies at 3.290-3.296 and then at 3.191-3.200. Resistance comes in at 3.496-3.502, which are the highs from overnight and from Tuesday this week.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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