Daily Energy Market Update January 20,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher today versus Monday's values on the back of US dollar weakness and an improved global economic growth forecast from the IMF. Additionally, 2 fires at power generators in Kazakhstan has seen crude oil production cut back there. Chinese GDP data seen Monday has also been cited as being supportive.

March HO is currently 1.75 cents higher than seen at the 6PM re-opening last night. Colder weather forecasts in the US are supportive --as evidenced by  the very strong rally in NG futures. March WTI is up about 15 cents from the Monday evening 6 PM re-opening. March RB is up about 0.3 cents since the Monday 6 PM re-opening.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than expected in October last year. Most of the improvement, according to the new economic review, is attributable to the United States and China. Global inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. (gmk.center)

In Kazakhstan, Tengizchevroil temporarily stopped production at its Tengiz and Korolev fields after two fires broke out at power generators. The producer pumped around 890 MBPD over the first three quarters of 2025. (ING) But, elsewhere in Europe, Norway's oil production was up 4% in December, with a total of 1.96 MMBPD, the highest level seen since July 2025. (Quantum Commodities)

On Monday, news was seen that China's economy grew 5.0% last year, meeting the government's target by seizing a record share of global demand for goods to offset weak domestic consumption. GDP grew 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December 31, more than expectations of 1.1%, as per Investing.com reporting. China had a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion, 20% higher than in 2024. While China is expected to target a roughly 5% pace again this year, a Reuters poll predicted 2026 growth at 4.5%, as domestic retail sales and a slumping property sector are seen as weaker than the foreign trade. The economy grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, beating analysts' expectations slightly but slowing to a three-year low from the third-quarter's 4.8% pace, as consumption and investment dragged.  (Reuters)

The ICE gasoil crack has seen renewed strength in recent days, edging back towards US$25/bbl. The strength in the European middle distillate market coincides with the EU’s ban on refined product imports produced from Russian oil. The ban comes into effect on 21 January. While trade flows have had time to adjust to the ban, it may still lead to some disruption, as per IN G commentary. The ban will largely affect middle distillate flows from India to Europe. Some Indian refiners are reportedly adjusting their crude purchases to continue selling into the EU. (ING)

Today is the last trading day for the February WTI futures.

The API's weekly petroleum data is due to be released tomorrow (Wednesday 1/21), while the DOE data is due to be released Thursday (1/22) at 12 PM (EST).

Energy Market Technicals

Despite the rally of the past 24 hours, momentum basis the March daily charts for RB and WTI remain negative, while ULSD is holding on to positive momentum.

March WTI almost tested resistance at 60.03-60.10 with a current high for the session of 59.98. Above that resistance lies at 60.90-60.91. Support lies at 58.76-58.81 and then at 58.32-58.38.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 81.7 cents ( versus Friday Jan. 16's settlements)
NG spot futures are up almost 36 cents from Monday's 6 PM re-opening as weather forecasts have added even more demand. The February contract is much stronger than the back of the curve on the strength of the forecasts. "Steady" LNG demand and shortcovering are also seen helping boost prices.

The latest weather run seen added more HDD's in both the American and European models. (NG Kneel) The cold snap is seen lasting into February, as per Quantum Commodities.

U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated 0.129 BCF/d lower today at 112.46 BCF/d and below the 30-day average of 113.3 BCF/d, according to BNEF. Focus will be on potential for any Permian production shut-in as cold weather arrives in the region.

TTF futures are also higher today, fueled by expectations of stronger demand due to colder temperatures and seasonally low inventories. Colder weather across parts of Europe, coupled with an Arctic blast in China, are expected to drive European gas prices higher as benchmarks must remain competitive to secure LNG cargoes. (WSJ) European gas storage is down to 50.36% full on Jan. 17, according to GIE data compared to the previous five-year seasonal average of 65.2% full.

JPMorgan projects Henry Hub prices will average $3.85 per MMBtu in Q1 2026 and $3.74 per MMBtu for the full year, as per a Rigzone report. Enverus expects winter prices to average $3.80 per MMBtu, rising to $4.00–$4.50 by the decade’s end. Fitch Group’s BMI report anticipates $3.90 per MMBtu this year and $4.00 next year.  (economictimes.indiatimes)

Spot NG futures resistance at 3.976-3.983 has been tested today with a high of 3.990. Above that resistance comes in at 4.093-4.096. Support lies at 3.733-3.734 and then at 3.617-3.618. Momentum is positive for the NG.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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