Daily Energy Market Update January 15,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are lower as the geopolitical risk premium, which had been supporting oil prices, appears to have tapered off. Additionally weighing on the CL futures is the large build in crude inventories seen in the DOE data yesterday. Worth noting is that the sharp price drop seen currently is being registered versus yesterday's high settlement. Currently energy prices are hovering above the post settlement lows seen in Wednesday's late trading.

"Donald Trump appears to have pulled back from the brink of military intervention," one analyst remarked, after President Trump yesterday said that the "killing (of protesters)  in Iran has stopped". (WSJ) Today, the security level at a US base in Qatar was lowered, after being heightened Wednesday. (Reuters)

The DOE data seen Wednesday was supportive for distillate, but disappointing for gasoline and crude oil. Crude oil stocks built by 3.391 MMBBL. The crude oil inventory build is due to increased imports. Imports rose by 753 MBPD to a high figure of 7.092 MMBPD. The import figure was the highest in 14 months ,as per a Reuters source. Net crude imports thus rose by 710 MBPD --thus adding  4.97 MMBBL of supply. The net import increase was mitigated some by the drop in crude production of 58 MBPD and the increase in crude inputs to refineries of 49 MBPD. Crude inputs of 16.958 MMBPD are 311 and 305 MBPD higher than seen in the prior 2 years for this period. Gasoline supplies built by 8.977 MMBBL. Distillate inventories fell by 0.29 MMBBL, as demand rose by 901 MBPD to a strong level of 4.096 MMBPD. This week's demand beat the last 2 years demand by 257 and 451 MBPD.

Venezuela's oil is set to return to markets, with the U.S. completing its first sale of Venezuelan oil, valued at $500 million, on Wednesday. The details of the sale haven't yet been disclosed, although the  US administration official said more sales are expected in the coming days and weeks. Proceeds from the sale are to be split among Venezuelans, U.S. companies and the U.S. government, at the discretion of the federal government, the White House has said.  (CBS News)

US Gulf tanker rates have risen to the highest in two years boosted by the prospect of increased oil exports from the US following the intervention in Venezuela, Blomberg said.

China's crude oil imports rose 17% from a year earlier in December, while total imports in 2025 rose 4.4%, government data showed on Wednesday. December's crude imports were equivalent to 13.18 MMBPD, up 10% from November. Imports in 2025 averaged 11.55 MMBPD. The growth in crude oil imports was attributable to stronger crude throughput and firmer restocking demand, according to Kpler, a consultancy. It added that China’s oil throughput is expected to have reached 15.38 MMBPD in 2025, up 0.7% from a year earlier. The average stock build in 2025 was 430 MBPD, up from 84 MBPD in 2024, with half of the growth driven by new storage capacity from both state-owned and independent companies, according to consultancy Rystad Energy.  Rysad adds: "Low oil prices also matter, as the average crude cost in China was $10 per barrel lower than in 2024 amid sanctions."  Kpler added that China’s onshore crude oil inventories reached a record high of 1.206 billion barrels in late December and early January.  (Reuters)

Energy Market Technicals

Technically the WTI has 2 indicators that signal yesterday having seen an interim top. The contract was repelled from the March daily chart's upper bollinger band. That band intersects  today at 61.40-61.45. Also, the WTI futures volume seen on the CME in Wednesday's trading was very heavy at 1,822,992 contracts. Tops and bottoms are often punctuated by heavy volume. Today's high for the March WTI of 61.01 was seen on the opening of the session last night. Momentum for the March WTI and RB are poised to turn downward from near overbought conditions.

WTI for March sees support at 58.32-58.39. Resistance lies at 60.37-60.39 and then at 61.23-61.25.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 0.4 cents at 3.124
NG futures are near unchanged now after having rebounded overnight as some of the recently lost LNG feedgas volume returned. Also supportive is the expectation for near term colder weather. Some cite a weak EIA gas storage number expected today as weighing on NG futures prices.

LNG feedgas demand is estimated to recover 1.34 BCF/d today to 17.51 BCF/d, driven primarily by a rebound in Freeport supply after disruption to power at its pre-treatment facility earlier this week. Cheniere's Corpus Christi facility's supply remains curtailed by pipeline maintenance today. (Market News)  On Wednesday, NG spot futures fell to their lowest level since October 17 weighed down by the temporary loss of feedgas volume the past 48 hours from 2 key plants. The total loss from the 2 plants was 3.14 BCF.

Warmer forecasts were also said to have weighed on NG futures Wednesday. The midday update to the Global Forecast System weather model on Wednesday shifted warmer across the eastern half of the US for the January 24-28 period, as per Barchart commentary. Yet, another forecaster, NatGasWeather, has a different view. They are calling for “frosty air” to advance into the northern half of the U.S. late in the week and next weekend with highs of 0s to 40s, lows of -0s to 30s for stronger national demand. They’re also calling for stronger demand for Thursday through Sunday. From the price action, it looks as if these events have already been discounted as normal winter weather patterns, as per one analyst's comment.

Wednesday saw the national average spot gas price rise over the NG spot futures for February.  NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. on Wednesday rallied 56.5 cents to $3.255/MMBtu. February NG settled down 29.9 cents at 3.120.

The EIA gas storage data due out today is seen as a draw of 87 to 90 BCF as per WSJ and Reuters surveys. This compares to last year's draw of 227 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 146 BCF.

TTF prices in Europe have risen today to their best spot futures level since October 8th on cold weather and LNG risks. (Market Screener) In recent days, the price has also been supported by the low level of gas in storage and by likely short covering by funds. Europe has seen accelerated withdrawals from its gas-storage facilities in recent days, with inventories slipping below 55%; WSJ commentary adds that stronger Asian demand is also supporting the European gas marker, as parts of Asia are experiencing a cold wave.

On Wednesday, NG spot futures technically fell further into the gap on the DC chart created in mid-October. NG February spot futures settled 8.75% lower Wednesday. The March and April contracts settled 5.66 % and 5.49 % lower. Wednesday's low was 3.068. The gap goes down to 3.024. Those are support points to us. Some light resistance for the February NG comes in at 3.305-3.310. Momentum remains basically neutral.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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