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- Daily Energy Market Update January 13,2026
January 14, 2026
WTI is up $1.01 at $60.51 RB is up 1.67 cents at $1.8105 ULSD is up 4.37 cents at $2.1981
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Oil prices are higher as the concern over Iranian and Russian supplies mounts.
Trump said on Monday that any country that does business with Iran will be subjected to a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States. Iran exports much of its oil to China. (Reuters) There have been suggestions of the potential for US military action (against Iran), as per ING commentary.
Exports of Kazakh oil from the CPC terminal will come under significant pressure this month. Shipments are expected to come in between 800-900 MBPD, around 45% below initial expectations, according to Bloomberg. The drop is due to maintenance and damage caused by Ukrainian drones, while weather has also been an issue. (ING) Additionally, four Greek-managed oil tankers were struck by unidentified drones on Tuesday. The tankers were in the Black Sea on the way to load oil at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal off the Russian coast, eight sources told Reuters.
Brent crude oil's premium to Middle East benchmark Dubai rose on Tuesday to its highest since July as geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela supported the global price marker, LSEG data showed. The prompt month Brent-Dubai EFS widened sharply to around $1.30/bbl last week from about $0.70/bbl the week before. The rise is primarily due to European physical tightness on supply disruptions, and weaker Dubai pricing as the prompt Middle East overhang drags structure lower. The European market has been supported by the drop in CPC availability (see the above news).
The Mideast crude oil market has been weak on its own, evidenced by the crude curve structure. Dubai M1M3 flipped into contango last week, averaging around minus $0.30/bbl, the weakest since 2023. The move has been building for weeks on soft prompt fundamentals and an overhang in medium sours, as per Kpler analysis. Excess prompt barrels remain available and Kpler’s supply demand data points to around a 3 MMBPD surplus in Q1. At the same time, discounted Russian and Iranian cargoes are still clearing at steep discounts; Urals is currently landing at about $19/bbl cheaper than Dubai swaps (about $10 decline from a month ago). This limits the urgency for China to pay up for alternatives and keeps a lid on Middle East spot demand. Saudi Arabia's 30 cent OSP cut for its A-Light crude for February into Asia are consistent with the weak spot market and look aimed at defending market share. Term nominations should stay firm, leaving less room for Atlantic Basin barrels to move. As long as Urals remains deeply discounted, the sanctioned pool stays aggressively priced and keeps the Dubai structure capped in contango for now. (kpler.com)
Worries over a supply glut have taken a backseat for now, said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah, adding that excess refinery throughput in Europe was weighing on the gasoil market. (Reuters)
The EIA's monthly oil report (STEO) is due to be released today, followed by the OPEC monthly oil report tomorrow. The IEA's monthly report will be released next week on Jan. 21.
US CPI data for December came in as expected with a monthly increase of 0.3% and a year on year increase of 2.7%. The CME Groupwatch is seeing a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at their Jan. 27-28 meeting.
Energy Market Technicals
Momentum is positive as crude prices have risen to their best level in almost 2 months.
WTI spot futures see resistance at 61.06-61.09 and then at 61.50. The DC chart upper bollinger band lies below the chart resistance at the $61.00 level. Support lies at 59.31-59.32 and then at 58.68-58.71.
RB spot futures see support at 1.7926-1.7933 and then at 1.7615-1.7638. Resistance comes in at 1.8505-1.8524.
ULSD February futures have resistance at 2.2106-2.2114 and then at 2.2421-2.2433. Support comes in at the overnight low at 2.1583-2.1588.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is up 1.0 cents at $3.419
NG futures are higher again today after Monday's 7.5% rise in spot futures. Colder weather forecasts for later in the month, short covering and record LNG feedgas demand have boosted NG.
This week’s total forecast for HDD is 174, compared to a normal of 209 and up from the actual figure of 147 from last week, as per the NOAA on Monday. (Bloomberg) Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Monday that forecasts shifted colder across the eastern half of the US for January 17-21, potentially boosting nat-gas heating demand. Also, the weather outlook trended colder in the northern half of the country for January 22-26. (Barchart)
Monday's feed gas volume was seen at 19.3 BCF/d, besting the prior record of 19.2 BCF/d. The volume is up 4.4 BCF/d from a year ago. (Celsius Energy)
Short covering looks to have been in effect when looking at the CME open interest data from Monday's trading for NG futures. Open interest fell by a total of 36,978 contracts. Notable decreases were seen in the February through May strip.
TTF European natural futures have gapped higher again today, rising to their best value since Nov. 4,2025. "Colder weather boosted heating demand and unrest in Iran raised concerns over LNG and pipeline supplies," ING notes. They add: "First, there are potential risks to LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. Second, there’s the potential for disruptions to Iranian Gas flows to Turkey. Given the large TTF fund short, it wouldn’t take much to move the market as funds run in to cover shorts." (FX Street)
Notable open interest data from the LN/NG options from Monday's activity on the CME shows the $1.00 call in the Feb/March one month CSO falling, the February $2.75 put rising and the July/October 3 month CSO minus 5 cents call rising. The February $2.75 put traded in size between 2.0 and 3.5 cents. Also, the February $2.75 put was sold against buying of the $2.90 put at a cost of between 2.4 and 3.0 cents. The February $2.75 put was also sold twice against buying of one $3.00 put at a cost of 3.4 to 3.6 cents to the $3.00 put buyer. The Feb/March $1.00 call traded in size at 4.5, 5.5 and 6.0 cents. The July/October minus 5 cent call was sold versus buying of the minus 15 cent put for a cost of 0.1 cents to the put buyer. Among other notable trades seen were the Feb/March 1 month CSO 50/35 cent put spread in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 2.3 cents to the 50 cent put buyer. A March $3.00 call/$2.50 put fence traded 8.4 cents with .66 delta futures sales at $2.84.
Technically NG spot futures today have risen to test light resistance at 3.496-3.502 with a high of 3.499. Above that resistance lies at 3.585-3.591. Support is seen at 3.355 and then at 3.290-3.296, which is just below the overnight low of 3.298. Momentum is positive basis the DC chart.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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