Daily Energy Market Update February 9,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil and distillate prices are lower now, while RB futures are higher. The market has been torn today between a de-escalation of the US/Iran conflict --hence the lower opening--and the fact that Indian refiners are reducing their purchases of Russian oil. As per one energy analytical firm :" If India fully stopped Russian oil purchases "this would be a sustained bullish development for the physical crude market." ULSD & Gasoil  futures are lower today as weather demand in the US & Europe is seen falling in the near term.

Oil prices came under renewed pressure in early morning trading in Asia after nuclear talks between the US and Iran were seen as constructive. Though the indirect talks were reportedly constructive, the US on Friday imposed additional sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports. President Trump also signed an executive order on the same day. It will allow tariffs on goods from countries that do business with Iran. He stopped short of applying the tariffs. (ING)

Refiners in India, once the biggest buyer of Russia's seaborne crude, are avoiding purchases for delivery in April and are expected to stay away from such trades for longer, refining and trade sources said, which could help New Delhi seal a trade pact with Washington.  (Reuters) Russia’s crude output declined for a second straight month in January as the world’s third largest oil producer faces difficulty in marketing its barrels because of US sanctions. The nation pumped an average of 9.28 MMBPD of crude oil last month. The figure — which doesn’t include output of condensate — is 46 MBPD below an already-reduced level in December, and almost 300 MBPD lower than what Russia is allowed to produce, as per its OPEC+ quota. Russian oil held on water has risen. By the start of February, accumulated volumes of Russian crude on water reached 143 MMBBL, almost doubling from a year ago and creeping up by more than a quarter compared to late November.  (Bloomberg)

CFTC data seen Friday showed money managers added 34,074 contracts of net length in WTI futures/options on ICE/CME combined. This was achieved mostly through longs being added on ICE and shorts being covered on the CME. ULSD net length rose by 13,714 contracts mostly through shorts being covered; this brought money managers net total length to 24,325 contracts. RB net length rose by 2,502 contracts. Net length in Brent rose by 31,332 contracts, mostly a function of short covering. This raised money managers net length to its highest level since April 2025, as per ING analysis. 

The Baker Hughes oil rig count issued Friday added 1 unit.

This week will see the release of the monthly oil market reports. Tomorrow (Tuesday 2/10) will see the release of the EIA's STEO. OPEC's monthly report will be issued Wednesday (2/11) and the IEA's report will be issued on Thursday (2/12). 

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum for the ULSD basis its DC chart is negative, but that for RB is positive, while that for the WTI is turning neutral, befitting the sideways pattern of price action seen the past week.

WTI spot futures see support at 62.05-62.07 and then at 61.04-61.12. Resistance lies at 64.58-64.67 and then at 65.53.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 27.2 cents at $3.150
NG spot futures have gapped lower as the 4 to 10 day forecast is showing "markedly below average" GWDD's, as per Celsius Energy, although they add that the 10-14 day period is suggesting the return of cold weather.  NGI commentary today cites the lack of "meaningful" cold failing to materialize in the weather data. The index fund double roll continues today, which may put some pressure on the front month futures as positions get rolled forward to the 3rd month (May). 

CFTC data seen Friday showed money managers turned neutral in their positioning in NG futures/options on the CME in the week ended Tuesday February 3. Money managers basically covered short positions to end up net long 106 contracts as they added 22,076 of net length.

TTF European futures have also gapped lower today. The spot TTF futures are down 7.6% at current, printing near Euro 33/Mwh ( = $11.48/MMBTU). The TTF contract is likely being pressured some by the drop in NG futures, but is also being weighed down by warmer than normal weather forecast over much of Europe in the coming days. "Your annual reminder that Europe gas demand peaks in the 1st week of February on a seasonal basis & descends until the 1st week of September.", as per commentary from one market analyst. Forecasts from banks and commodity analysts point to prices drifting toward €26–€30/MWh by summer, assuming no prolonged cold shock. (coinpaper.com) The fall today in prices come even as European storage levels remain well below the 5 year average and last year's level. As of February 4, European storage facilities was filled to 39.86%, 16.2 percentage points below the five-year average for this date and down from 52.6% a year ago. (caliber.az)

The March LN/NG put option open interest on the CME rose in Friday's activity by over 45,000 contracts. Notable were the over 17,000 contract increases seen in the $3.00 and $2.75 strikes. The $2.75 put traded 3.3 cents cost. It also traded 2.9 cents cost with .08 delta March futures buys at $3.54. The $3.00/$2.75 put spread traded 4.5 and 4.6 cents. The put spread also traded 4.2 cents with 0.10 delta futures purchases at $3.56. The 2 strikes also traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 1.3 and 1.4 cents.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued Friday added 5 units.

Technically the DC chart's momentum for NG spot futures is getting near oversold. NG spot futures are down 7.75 % today. Support comes in at 3.112-3.114 and then at 3.051. The gap created over the weekend goes from 3.265 to 3.387. Resistance is seen at 3.280-3.288.

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