Daily Energy Market Update February 3, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher, boosted by strong equities in Asia and rallies in metals. Energies are also being helped by the dollar having weakened some. The energies are gaining back some ground that was lost Monday as the market was weighed down by the de-escalation of tension between Iran and the US. 

Global shares surged on Tuesday, led by a nearly seven per cent jump in South Korea’s benchmark and a 3.9 per cent rally in Tokyo that took the Nikkei 225 to a record as investors bought tech-related shares. Gold gained 6.7% on Tuesday, while silver’s price rebounded nearly 14%, as a risk-on tone returned to wider markets and the US dollar weakened. Copper rose by 4.6% in step with the other metals and also boosted by a call from a Chinese group for them to stockpile copper. (Bloomberg)

Iran and the U.S. are expected to resume nuclear talks on Friday in Turkey, officials from both sides told Reuters on Monday, and Trump warned that with big U.S. warships heading to Iran, bad things could happen if a deal was not reached. (Reuters)

On Monday, Trump unveiled a deal with India that slashes U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers. The US will remove the additional 25% tariff imposed on India for its purchases of Russian oil. This is after Trump said India agreed to stop buying Russian oil.  (Reuters/ING)

ING commentary adds that if India does stop buying Russian oil then this will further pressure the Russian Urals crude oil discount to attract buyers. A lack of buyers means Russia would ultimately be forced to reduce output, tightening up the oil market. Indian refiners have already reduced their purchases of Russian oil following US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, and the EU ban on refined product imports made from Russian oil. Indian imports of Russian oil are estimated to be in the region of 1.1 to 1.2 MMBPD in January, down from around 1.8 MMBPD in November 2025.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister  Novak said on Tuesday that there is currently a balance on the global oil market, while demand will be gradually rising in March and April, when asked about the OPEC+ group's plans for its production policy. (Reuters)

Market News commentary reads as follows: " Despite the lower risk premium, near term crude curve backwardation remains strong and call volatilities are holding well above the puts suggesting ongoing tight supply concern and upside price risks."  ING writes:  "Despite the easing in flat price, the prompt ICE Brent time spread remains firm, suggesting continued tightness in the market." The front Brent spread of April vs May is trading at +74 cents--having risen from about +39 cents over the past 2 weeks. 

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum remains negative for the energies basis the DC charts.

WTI spot futures see support at 61.21-61.25, which was tested with the overnight low of 61.12. Below that support lies at 60.67-60.72. Resistance is seen at 63.34-63.39 and then at 64.08-64.15.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 3.0 cents at $3.267
NG futures are slightly higher as they are having an inside trading day versus yesterday's price range. The market is likely reassessing whether the market "overshot" to the downside in Monday's selloff with commentary reminding people that winter is not over. Large gas withdrawals from storage will be seen in the coming weeks.

The TTF European futures have gapped down today for the second day in a row, as forecasts for milder weather in the coming weeks weighed on sentiment and concerns over the impact of a massive winter storm in the U.S. eased. However, tight storage levels leave the market vulnerable until the heating season ends, market watchers say. Inventories across the European Union have fallen below 41% of capacity, compared with 53% in the year-earlier period and a five-year average of 57%. Based on the withdrawal rates from the last ten years from now until the end of March, the EU storage level would fall to an average of 24% of capacity at the end of the season.  (WSJ/Market News) More notable are the storage levels for some countries within Europe. Germany's gas storage is at 34% capacity, while Dutch reserves dropped to 28% as of the end of January.  To reach the mandatory 90% storage target by November 1, 2026, Europe will need to embark on one of the most aggressive and expensive gas-buying campaigns in its history. This will likely keep global gas prices elevated throughout the spring and summer of 2026. (markets.chroniclejournal.com)

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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