Daily Energy Market Update February 26,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are lower now after rallying to start the overnight session. The large crude build seen in the DOE data is said to be weighing on the market. The market will be keenly focused today on the US-Iran talks that are set to resume, with a market commentary suggesting that there is " an easing risk sentiment" surrounding the talks.

Oman's foreign minister says talks are going “constructively” and negotiators are “open” to new ideas and solutions, according to Oman News Agency cited by Bloomberg.  “Iran has come here with very reasonable amount of flexibility,” an Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman said. (Bloomberg)

Wednesday's DOE data showed a very large crude oil inventory build of 15.989 MMBBL. The build was the largest in 3 years. (Reuters) But, part of the build was due to the EIA's accounting adjustment. The EIA accounting adjustment added 2.739 MMBPD to inventories--which equates to 19.713 MMBBL. The increase in net crude imports of 2.884 MMBBL and the drop in refinery inputs/demand of 2.912 MMBBL ---suggest that the crude inventory build should have been nearer to 5.8 MMBBL. The crude oil build in the Gulf Coast region was nearly 14 MMBBL. But, Reuters adds that since the start of the year, crude oil inventories have risen by a total of 12 MMBBL – a smaller increase than the average of 15 MMBBL over the last ten years. Distillate supplies rose this week  by 0.252 MMBBL, versus forecasts for a draw of upward of 2 MMBBL. Distillate demand fell on the week by 858 MBPD to 3.895 MMBPD--lagging last year's demand by 207 MBPD, but beating 2024 demand by 359 MBPD. Distillate supplies rose most in the West Coast region. Gasoline demand was down 16 MBPD to 8.733 MMBPD, but this still beat the prior 2 years figures by 279 and 266 MBPD.

Reuters details how Saudi Arabia has raised oil production and exports as a contingency for any disruption in Iranian oil flows in case of a US attack. Last year, Saudi Arabia lifted oil exports in June by around 0.5 MMBPD, shipping more crude to overseas storage, just as the United States attacked Iranian nuclear sites. The plan this year is similar to 2025, according to the two Reuters' sources.  Iran has accelerated crude loadings in recent days, potentially preparing for disruption amid rising US-Iran tensions, Bloomberg said on Wednesday.

Weakness in the North Sea physical oil market is weighing on oil prices, said UBS' analyst. Bloomberg reports that the North Sea crude market is flashing signs of weakness as heavy buying from 2 large recent buyers subsides. North Sea oil production is experiencing a 2026 resurgence in supply, with loadings hitting an eight-year high of 2.1 MMBPD. North Sea oil loadings are hitting their highest rates since 2017, driven by new fields like Norway's Johan Castberg.  Prices for key North Sea grades have tumbled in recent trading sessions. WTI Midland — one of the six crudes that underpin Dated Brent — traded at a two-month low of $1.70 a barrel above the global benchmark on Monday, according to traders monitoring the Platts pricing window run by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The weakness may deepen in the weeks ahead, with additional Kazakh barrels returning to the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe following earlier disruption, and high freight rates discouraging purchases by buyers in Asia. The upcoming refinery maintenance season in Europe is seen adding to the weakness in the North Sea market.    (Bloomberg)

Russia fired a barrage of drones and missiles at Ukraine’s energy sector and railway infrastructure overnight on Thursday, injuring dozens of people, damaging residential buildings and triggering fires, officials said.  (Reuters)

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum for the energies has turned negative.

Spot WTI futures see support at the overnight low at 63.60-63.65. Below that support lies at 62.86-62.89. Resistance comes in at the overnight high at 65.83-65.85.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas --NG is down 7.2 cents at $2.796
NG futures are lower as mid-March weather is seen warming up, with the market thus loosing demand. As one comment read:" benign weather lies ahead." Today's well below average EIA gas storage data is also likely weighing on prices.

The EIA gas storage data due today is seen as a draw of 53 to 55 BCF, as per WSJ and Reuters survey estimates. This compares to last year's draw of 252 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 168 BCF.

The NOAA 6-14 day charts show above normal across most of the country. The latest weather runs have shed more HDD's (Heating Degree days). NatGasWeather shows a loss of 12 HDD's.

Yesterday, Celsius Energy said that US natural gas production had fallen to 107.5 BCF/d after a recovery to higher amounts in early February. Celsius Energy pointed out that Wednesday output was up ("just") 2.2 BCF/d versus year ago level, adding that the rise in feedgas volume for LNG export had risen by 2.6 BCF/d over the year ago level.  BNEF data has NG output today at 112.71 BCF/d, down from Monday's production of 114.29 BCF/d, and comparing to an average of 113.46 BCF/d over the previous week.

NGI’s Spot Gas National Average was up 5.5 cents on Wednesday to $2.345/MMBtu. The Henry Hub cash gas next day price was up 1.5 cents to $3.01, which helped boost the March futures some into expiration.

The March NG futures expiration was quiet. NG futures volume on the CME was light at 333,009 contracts. That may have been partially a function of the 50 minute halt in trading on the CME platform due a technical issue. 

There is a rollover gap as April has become the spot futures contract. The gap goes from the March low yesterday of 2.895 to the session high today for April of 2.891. Today's low in the April futures is the lowest spot NG futures price seen since September 23. The April contract has a gap to fill down to 2.766. Support below that comes in at 2.725 from DC chart data. Resistance lies at 2.930-2.934.

Despite today's drop to a fresh DC low, momentum remains positive. Notable is the narrowing of the DC chart's bollinger bands. Tightening or narrowing Bollinger Bands on a price chart signal a period of low volatility, indicating that the market is consolidating. It indicates that the current low-volatility state is unsustainable. It serves as a precursor to an explosive, high-volatility breakout in either direction.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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