Daily Energy Market Update February 25,2026

March 3, 2026

WTI is up 61 cents at $66.24       April RB is up 2.47 cents at $2.2553      April ULSD is up 1.44 cents at $2.5283

Energy prices are mixed with RB and crude oil higher, but ULSD unchanged. The market remains fixated on the situation in Iran and the underlying tension. The rise in crude prices today comes even as API data showed a very large increase in crude oil supplies.

Talks resume tomorrow between the US and Iran. Last night, President Trump, in his State of the Union address " briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, saying he would not allow a country he described as the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon."  On the flip side, on Tuesday, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said that Teheran was ready to take any necessary step to reach a deal with the US. But, Iran has accelerated talks to purchase Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, according to Reuters sources, which could target U.S. naval forces that have assembled near the Iranian coast.  (Reuters)

API                  Forecast           Actual
Crude Oil     -0.218/+2.9       +11.43
Gasoline        -0.5/-1.6            -1.53
Distillate        -0.7/-2.1            -2.77
Cushing            n/av                +1.79
Runs             -0.2/+0.4              n/av

Crude oil prices in the Permian Basin have fallen to their largest discount to Houston since November 2024; Midland crude is trading at a roughly US$0.80/bbl discount to Houston. The recent weakness comes amid scheduled maintenance work on the 1.5 MMBPD Wink to Webster pipeline in early March. It carries crude oil from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast. (ING)

Oil Price commentary showed freight rates for VLCC's from the Mideast to China tripling since the beginning of the year to reach $170,000 per day, the highest since the "contango frenzy of April 2020", as Oil Price commentary states. Argus Media adds that the surge in tanker rates reflects tighter vessel availability, with recent consolidation in the VLCC market reducing the number of shipowners active in the spot market. At the same time, Indian demand for Middle East crude continues to be strong as increased pressure from U.S. sanctions prompted Indian refiners to reduce imports of Russian crude. (WSJ)

Iran's crude loadings have surged to multiyear highs this month as geopolitical risks build ahead of a third round of nuclear talks with Washington. Loadings of Iranian crude and condensate to shipping vessels jumped to nearly 27 MMBBL last week, or about 3.78 MMBPD -- almost three times the recent weekly average of roughly 10 MMBBL -- according to data provider Kpler. So far this month, loadings have climbed to about 2.3 MMBPD, up 50% from the prior three-month average of 1.54 MMBPD.  Kpler estimates Tehran's oil-on-water storage has reached a record near 200 MMBBL, driven by higher loadings and softer end-demand from China, Iran's largest buyer. Chinese imports of sanctioned Iranian crude and condensate have been averaging about 1.20 MMBPD so far in 2026 -- down 14% from 2025 levels, Kpler data showed. (WSJ)

The net positioning of hedge funds in ICE Brent futures has been fervently bullish in recent weeks, with CFTC reporting a net length of 263,186 contracts in the week ending February 17, more than doubling since early January 2026.  (Oil Price)

Tuesday's open interest in WTI on the CME rose by 34,417 contracts. We see this as mostly new short positions, especially seeing as the settlement prices for WTI were very close to the low for the day. Increases were seen in the contract months from April through July and December.

OPEC+ is set to meet Sunday March 1 and the belief is that they will continue their oil production increases in April. Reuters has quoted sources saying that an increase of 137 MBPD is being considered.

The retail gasoline and diesel prices at the pump in the US have risen further today, as per AAA data. The gasoline price rose today by 2.4 cents from yesterday; the $2.975 price today is the best since December 5. Diesel prices rose today by 2.2 cents to $3.749. One month ago the price was $3.565. Today's price is the best since November 30. 

RB spot futures have again--as seen 2 weeks ago-tested the psychological $2.00 level the past 4 sessions. The spot March RB futures have a pattern of lower highs the past 3 sessions after making the fresh high last Friday. April RB looks to have created a wall of resistance over 2.2550 in the past 5 sessions. Resistance is seen at 2.2644-2.2648, which is the double top from yesterday/Monday. Support lies at 2.2179.

ULSD April futures have resistance at the Tuesday high of 2.5551 and then at 2.5860 from DC chart data. Support lies at 2.5082-2.5088 and then at the overnight low at 2.4981-2.4992.