Daily Energy Market Update February 20,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Overnight the energies made fresh highs for this rally--but have since retreated with crude oil lower now, RB near unchanged and the April HO still in positive territory.  The underlying worry mentioned in news wire commentaries is that the US is only a matter of days away from making some attack on Iran if they do not agree to a deal. "The heightened uncertainty that the market faces over the next two weeks suggests that oil prices are likely to continue to price in a large risk premium," ING analysts say.

Energy prices were volatile on Thursday as President Trump made several comments regarding talks with Iran and potential outcomes. President Trump warned Iran on Thursday it must make a deal over its nuclear program or "really bad things" will happen, and set a deadline of 10 to 15 days, drawing a threat from Tehran to retaliate against U.S. bases in the region if attacked. (Reuters) Crude prices fell 50 cents quickly mid-morning Thursday as President Trump said that "good talks being had with Iran", but demanded that Tehran reach a "meaningful" agreement. A few minutes later, Bloomberg quoted him as saying :" "we have some work to do with Iran".

"They can't have a nuclear weapon, it's very simple," President Trump said. "You can't have peace in the Middle East if they have a nuclear weapon." Iran has resisted making major concessions on its nuclear program, though insisting it is for peaceful purposes. Earlier on Thursday, Russia warned against an "unprecedented escalation of tension" around Iran on Thursday and urged restraint amid the U.S. military buildup in the region, which a senior American official said should be complete by mid-March. In a sign of growing concern over the increased tensions, Poland on Thursday became the latest European country to urge its citizens to leave Iran.  (Reuters)

Thursday news surfaced that memorial ceremonies across multiple cities evolved into small but symbolic anti-government protests in Iran. (Oil Price)

The DOE petroleum data seen Thursday showed a sizable draw in crude oil, propelled by lower net crude imports of 1.132 MMBPD (=7.924 MMBBL). Crude oil exports rose by 851 MBPD. Distillate inventories fell by 4.566 MMBBL, besting forecasts for a draw of upward of 2.0 MMBBL. Distillate demand rose on the week to 4.753 MMBPD --beating the prior years demand by 389 and 813 MBPD. Gasoline supplies fell by 3.213 MMBBL, beating the forecast for a draw upward of 1.2 MMBBL. Gasoline demand rose by 449 MBPD to 8.749 MMBPD--beating the prior 2 years demand by 510 and 549 MBPD.

The national average diesel price at the pump in the US rose today to its best value since December 5. Today's price is $3.690, as per AAA data. This is up from the price seen one month ago of $3.514.

Energy Market Technicals

April RB sees support at 2.2120-2.2134. Resistance from DC chart data is seen at 2.2761. The daily chart upper bollinger band lies at 2.2524.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--April NG is +0.1 cents at $2.947
NG futures are unchanged now after spending much of the overnight in slightly negative territory. Prices are supported somewhat as cold weather grips much of the US over the next few days and the latest 15 day forecast is said to have added demand. As one colleague says : "natural gas is in search of a catalyst." Yesterday's EIA storage data disappointed and next week's storage number is seen as very weak. 

The latest GFS 6z ( 1 AM EST)  run's 15 day forecast is 31 HDD higher nationally driven by early March. (Market News) The Commodity Weather Group said Thursday that forecasts shifted colder, with below-average temperatures expected in the western US through February 23.

The EIA storage number issued Thursday disappointed somewhat as inventories fell by 144 BCF, which was 5 to 8 BCF below the Bloomberg and WSJ forecasts. Total storage fell to 2.070 TCF. This was still 59 BCF (2.77%) below year ago level and 123 BCF (5.61%) below the 5 year average. But, next week's storage data will show a draw that is significantly below the 5 year average draw. Celsius Energy is forecasting a draw of 56 BCF, which would be 112 BCF less than the 5 year average.

Estimates for end of season natural gas inventories varied in comments seen Thursday. Market News suggests total storage to be between 1.68 and 1.72 TCF. An energy advisor said: "expect inventories to find a seasonal bottom near or above 1.8 TCF in March." The EIA in their STEO this month forecast EOS gas inventories of 1.866 TCF. The Desk last week had a survey estimate of 1.748 TCF. 

On Thursday, the Henry Hub next day cash averaged $3.080/MMBtu, up 10.5 cents from Wednesday, NGI’s MidDay Price Alert showed. The Henry Hub cash held a small premium of about 1 cent to the March NG futures prior to the EIA storage data release. This was up from the more so flat differential between next day cash and spot NG futures seen Wednesday.

Yesterday, the October $8.00 call traded over 2,500 contracts at a price of 3.2 cents. This follows a similar amount in the October $8.00 call that was seen traded Wednesday at a price of 2.7 cents. These were new positions, as per CME open interest data. In the April October 6 month CSO, the -40 cent and -50 cent call open interests rose by 5,000 contracts as they traded in a call spread at a price of 3.6 cents.

Technically, yesterday, the spot NG futures saw their lowest settlement since Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025. April NG futures remain oversold basis the daily chart's momentum. April futures see support at the Wednesday low at 2.867-2.868. This is the top of a gap on the daily chart down to 2.766. Support comes in also at 2.793-2.804. Resistance comes in at 3.060-3.065.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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