Daily Energy Market Update February 19,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

"Oil prices rose on Thursday, driven by increasing concerns over potential military conflict between the United States and Iran as both countries stepped up military activity in the oil-producing region." (Reuters)

The US said on Wednesday that the two sides were still far apart on some issues after US-Iran talks were held in Geneva on Tuesday. Iran issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) that it plans rocket launches in areas across its south on Thursday, while the US has deployed warships near Iran. Iran and Russia plan naval drills in the Sea of Oman and Northern Indian Ocean today.  Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours on Tuesday, Iranian state media reported Wednesday, without making clear whether the waterway, one of the world's most vital oil export routes, had fully reopened. (Reuters) The U.S. hasn't assembled so much air power in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion, on top of which the Navy has 13 ships in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean Sea.  (WSJ)


API                Forecast         Actual
Crude Oil   +0.298/+2.7     -0.609
Gasoline      -0.3/-1.2          +3.3
Distillate     -0.9/-1.9           -2.0
Cushing          n/av               +1.4
Runs           +0.2/0.6%          n/av 
The DOE petroleum data will be issued today at Noon (EST).

Energy Market Technicals

ULSD and Brent momentums have turned positive, while that for RB is neutral, and that for the April WTI is trying to turn positive. The Brent DC, April WTI, April ULSD and Gasoil DC charts have all tested their upper bollinger bands today. 

WTI April futures have support at 64.92-64.93 and then at 63.97-64.02. Resistance is seen at 66.73 and then at 67.25. The upper bollinger intersects at 66.27.

 Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas---NG is up 5.1 cents at $3.062
NG spot futures are up slightly --holding over $3.00, after falling Wednesday to a 4 month low. A boost in HDD's in the prior forecast is supporting NG today, as are likely the strength in energies and the TTF contract.  But, the overall tone still is of a warmer weather pattern as we head to the end of winter.

This morning Market News commentary re the weather says :"HDDs now coming within the normal toward the end of the 2-week GFS forecast period for the Lower US 48 states instead of sliding off precipitously in cities like New York and Philadelphia." The market rallied back over $3 in the afternoon Wednesday as a slightly cooler forecast was offered--especially in the 8-14 day outlook, as per Celsius Energy commentary. Although, the Commodity Weather Group on Wednesday said above-normal temperatures are expected across the eastern half of the US through February 22, while mostly normal seasonal weather is expected for the following week.

The EIA gas storage data due out today at its regular hour (10:30 AM EST) is seen as a draw of 149 to 152 BCF as per WSJ & Bloomberg surveys. This compares to last year's draw of 182 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 151 BCF.

The TTF European spot futures have gapped higher today. The increased tension between the US and Iran has lifted the TTF value today, given concerns about LNG shipping in the region. Gas markets are increasingly worried about shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—especially from Qatar, the second-largest exporter globally. News wire accounts though mention some of the TTF upside seen today may be mitigated by a milder weather forecast across Europe and stronger renewable output in Germany. Yet, European storage remains very low. EU gas storage sites were last 32.5 per cent full, compared with 43.3 per cent at the same time last year, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed. (Reuters/WSJ)  The gap created today goes from 31.980 to 32.100.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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