Daily Energy Market Update February 18,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher now as the market focuses further on US Iran and Ukraine-Russia conflict talks. Military activity in the Mideast has also underpinned energy prices as has a comment from the US Vice President. Continued risk premium is a theme mentioned in news wire market accounts today.

Vice President Vance said Iran had failed to acknowledge core U.S. demands in talks in Geneva Tuesday, after which Washington said it had agreed to give Tehran two weeks to close the gaps between the sides. (WSJ) He also said that the Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge some of Trump’s red lines in a Fox News interview.

One analyst cited by WSJ said:" the risk of sudden escalation--given the U.S. buildup of military assets and Iranian threats--is likely to sustain a geopolitical risk premium, currently estimated at $3-$5 per barrel."  The military element underpinning prices consists over the past few days of Iran conducting live fire operations in the Strait of Hormuz, while another U.S. aircraft carrier is expected to join the Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East in late March or April. (WSJ) Iran and Russia will conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean on Thursday, the Iranian semi-official Fars news agency reported. (Reuters)

Keeping a risk premium on prices was the abrupt end of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva on Wednesday after only two hours. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said that the discussions had been difficult and accused Russia of deliberately seeking to delay progress toward a deal to end the four-year-old war. Russia’s chief negotiator said the talks had been difficult but business-like, and that a new round of talks would be held soon. (Reuters)

Tuesday saw energy prices fall off sharply near the 9 AM NY opening as the Iranian Foreign Minister said that Iran and the United States had reached an understanding on the main "guiding principles" in a second round of indirect talks in Geneva over their nuclear dispute on Tuesday, but that does not mean a deal is imminent, he added. (Reuters) After that Reuters  reported the Foreign Minister said that no agreement had been reached, but that the "path has started".

A Reuters analyst has written in detail about Asia's crude imports. Asia's imports of crude oil are on track to hit a record high in February as the recent strong run continues, but the mix of suppliers is starting to shift in response to geopolitical dynamics. Seaborne arrivals are set to rise to 28.51 MMBPD in February; this is up from the 27.48 MMBPD total in December and 26.22 MMBPD in January, according to Kpler data. India's imports in February are seen at a pace of 5.40 MMBPD, up from January's level of 5.18 MMBPD. March crude oil imports into India are seen currently at 4.04 MMBPD. This is due mostly to a large drop in imports from Russia. They are seen running at 593 MBPD, a 59% slump from the 1.43 MMBPD in February and the 1.22 MMBPD in January. The main beneficiary of India moving away from Russia would appear to be fellow OPEC+ member Saudi Arabia, with February imports expected to reach 1.03 MMBPD, up from 774 MBPD in January and the most since November 2019, according to Kpler data. Saudi Arabia's lower OSP incentivized more sales to Asia.  China's imports of Saudi crude are expected to be  1.58 MMBPD in February, up from 1.20 MMBPD in January and the most since June last year. However, China is sticking with Russia as a top supplier, with February seaborne imports expected at 2.02 MMBPD, up from 1.85 MMBPD in January. China's January and February imports from Russia are the highest in Kpler records going back to 2013.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically momentum remains negative for the energies, but the price action continues to show a sideways pattern.

WTI April futures see support at 62.44-62.48 and then at the overnight low at 62.00-62.04. Resistance comes in at 64.29-64.30 and then at 65.60-65.61.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 5.2 cents at $2.979
NG spot futures have yet again tested $3 as weak near term weather demand remains in focus, as does strong US gas production, even as feedgas volume has been boosted by Golden Pass' facility.

Short-term weather forecasts show warming trends, but the possibility of a shot of cold weather remains, according to EBW Analytics Group. On Tuesday, the Commodity Weather Group said above-normal temperatures are expected across the eastern half of the US through February 21, while mostly normal seasonal weather is expected across the country through February 28.

The drop in NG futures the past 2 sessions comes even as the Golden Pass LNG plant is ramping up production. Monday's feedgas demand to the plant was 0.35 BCF/d, up from 0.13 BCF/d on Sunday. Celsius Energy says that this ramping up of volume is 2-3 weeks early, which they add is bullish.

BNEF estimates that on Monday, the US Lower 48 states dry gas production stood at 114.25 BCF/d, down from the previous day of 114.85 BCF/d. But, over the weekend, natural gas production nearly topped the December 19th record of over 114.967 BCF/d,  reaching 114.907 BCF/d on Saturday February 14.

TTF spot futures have fallen to their lowest value today since January 12. Milder weather forecasts, including the potential for warmer and windier conditions in the coming days, have offset concerns around low inventories. In addition, slower Asian demand amid ongoing holidays and stronger LNG imports into northwest Europe this month have weighed further on prices. ING adds :" Gas storage levels stood at 33% of capacity as of 16 February, well below the five‑year average of 49% and last year’s level of 44% at this point in the season."

Technically NG momentum looks to be trying to turn upward from oversold condition, even as prices slump today. Support below comes in at 2.893-2.897. Resistance is seen at 3.147-3.149. There is a large gap on the daily March NG chart from 2.854 down to 2.739.

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