Daily Energy Market Update February 16,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are mixed with crude & ULSD up slightly, but RB down 0.5 cents. The market is awaiting the next round of US/Iran talks set to begin tomorrow --as are further talks in the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Words being used today to describe the crude oil market are :"little changed"  and "steady". 

Today prices were supported some by news of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard  holding drills in the Straits of Hormuz. (Market News) Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned that in case of strikes on Iranian territory, they could retaliate against any U.S. military base. The U.S. has dispatched a second aircraft carrier to the region and is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if the talks do not succeed, U.S. officials have told Reuters.

Iranian ministers told the media over the weekend that the country was ready to compromise on its nuclear program in return for relief from debilitating U.S. sanctions. They also signaled that it was now up to Washington whether it wanted a deal. (Investing.com)

China's Russian oil imports are set to climb for a third straight month to a new record in February after India slashed purchases on the back of U.S. pressure, according to traders and ship-tracking data. (Reuters)

CFTC data seen Friday showed money managers added very little to their net length in crude oil. In WTI, on ICE/CME combined, 7,777 contracts of net length were added in futures/options in the week ended Tuesday Feb. 10. Brent net length rose by only 2,813 contracts, as per ING analysis. RB net length rose by 12,143 contracts, due mostly to short covering. The short covering helped propel RB futures to their high last week. ULSD net length fell by 4,009 contracts in the Friday CFTC report. 

The Baker Hughes oil rig count issued Friday showed a decrease of 3 units.

Today the CME will have shortened trading hours ---closing from 2:30 PM (EST) until 6 PM. Activity in global financial markets is expected to be muted on Monday with China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year holidays, in addition to Presidents' Day in the United States. In China, the official Lunar New Year celebrations will last from Feb. 15 to Feb 23. 

Energy Market Technicals

While WTI DC chart based momentum is negative, the price pattern for WTI spot futures remains sideways. RB and ULSD momentum are negative. Gasoil has a gap on the DC chart.

WTI spot futures see support at 62.14-62.20 and then at 61.21-61.25. Resistance lies above at 64.71-64.74.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 21.8 cents at $3.025
NG futures have gapped lower--testing below $3 in the spot futures--with forecasts of warmer weather in the near future. Strong US gas production is also seen having weighed on prices.

The NOAA has forecast that the next two weeks will bring warmer-than-usual weather for this time of the year to much of the country.

Lower 48 states US dry gas production is currently estimated 1.22 BCF/d lower today at 113.90 BCF/d having risen to a very strong amount of 115.1 BCF/d over the weekend, BNEF data shows.

Money managers in Friday's CFTC report were seen having turned net short in the week ended Tuesday Feb. 10. 8,234 contracts of net shorts were added making the net total short 8,128 contracts.

TTF futures have also gapped lower over the weekend. Falling demand for heating as spring draws near has pressured prices, as has the sharp drop in the NG futures being seen. Yet, as of Friday, the European Union’s gas in storage was at 33.97%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, with Germany’s even lower, at just 23.95%, and the Netherlands’ at 15.57%. Analysts forecast that EU gas storage would be only about 26% full by the end of March, when the winter season officially ends. That would be the lowest end of season amount in 4 years and will necessitate substantial imports to replenish storage to the 80-90% target by November that the EU dictates. (Oil Price) The gap created over the weekend in the spot TTF futures goes from 31.340 to 31.575. Currently the spot futures are printing Euro 30.960.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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