Daily Energy Market Update February 13,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil prices are slightly higher now after earlier selling off as Reuters today reported that OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming oil output hikes in April, while immediate US Iran concerns have also moderated.

Reuters reported on Friday that OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming increases in oil output from April, citing three OPEC+ sources, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and price strength is bolstered by tensions over U.S.-Iran relations.

Crude oil prices have come under pressure not only from the OPEC+ news seen today, but also from yesterday's announcement from a White House official that the US Treasury will ease some sanctions against Venezuela this week, as well as the IEA reaffirming their bearish view of the oil market.  (Reuters)   "There is an expectation that Venezuelan oil supply will return to pre-blockade levels in the months ahead," one analyst said, adding that supply is expected to rise from 880 MBPD to about 1.2 MMBPD.

The US CPI data showed an increase in January of 0.2%--an increase of 0.3% was forecast ---the year on year inflation rate came in at +2.4%. January's annual inflation rate was down from the December rate of +2.7%. The US dollar sold off on the CPI data and hence crude prices have rebounded some.

Regarding Venezuelan crude oil, exports to Europe have resumed in February 2026 after an 11-month pause, driven by U.S.-supervised sales following the change in administration. Repsol SA and Vitol are receiving shipments as international traders like Vitol and Trafigura market up to 50 MMBBL.  Tankers carrying roughly 1 MMBBL each departed for Spain (Repsol's Cartagena and Bilbao refineries) and Italy (Vitol's Saras complex). Simultaneously, Indian refiner Reliance Industries has restarted purchases, and shipments have increased in January and February 2026. (Quantum Commodities)

In geopolitical news, U.S. media outlets reported late Thursday that the U.S. was sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, which kept investors on edge, according to Reuters reporting.  Away from the Middle East, the Kremlin said on Friday that the next round of peace talks on Ukraine will take place next week. (Reuters)

The WTI futures open interest rose by over 22,000 contracts Thursday even as the spot month March contract saw open interest fall by over 31,000 contracts. We see the increase in open interest being more new short positions opened. Increases were seen all along the curve --with higher open interest from April through June and September through December, as well as in November 2027, December 2027 and January 2028. 

The CME will observe shortened trading hours on Monday in observance of the President's Day holiday in the US. The CME platform will open as usual at 6PM (EST) Sunday evening and remain open until Monday at 2:30 PM. The platform will then be closed until 6PM. It will then remain open until 5 PM Tuesday evening. All trades executed between Sunday evening and Tuesday will be for settlement date Tuesday.

Energy Market Technicals

The April RB has clearly been repelled from values over $2.200 ( in conjunction with the spot contract failing to hold over $2.00) and in so doing April RB's daily chart momentum has turned negative. WTI DC chart based momentum has also turned negative. ULSD momentum remains negative.

WTI spot futures have reverted to the lower end of the recent range seen. Support comes in at 62.03-62.07 and then at 61.21-61.25. Resistance lies at 64.71-64.74 and then at 65.78-65.83.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas---NG is down 7.8 cents at $3.139.
NG prices are lower today weighed down by a disappointing EIA gas storage number seen Thursday and the prospect for less heating demand as temperatures are seen warming up next week.

The Commodity Weather Group said Thursday that above-average temperatures were expected across the Midwest and South through February 21. Average Lower 48 states temperatures are forecast to rise above normal over the coming week to a peak around Feb. 18 before dropping to below normal across Feb. 21-26, according to GFS.

The EIA gas storage data seen Thursday came in weaker than forecast with a draw of 249 BCF. This was 9 to 16 BCF less than news wire survey estimates. Total storage fell to 2.214 TCF. This is 97 BCF (-4.20%) versus last year's level and -130 BCF (-5.55%) versus the 5 year average. The coming weeks will see the current deficits in storage reduced versus last year and versus the 5 year average --possibly even return to surpluses. 

Cash prices at Henry Hub averaged $3.425/MMBtu on Thursday, up 18.0 cents, as per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert. But, NGI’s spot natural gas National average price fell by 2.0 cents to $2.955.

Top business leaders urged the European Union on Wednesday to act urgently to bring down energy prices, saying that was key for European industries to be able to compete with the United States and China. The loss of cheap Russian gas imports following Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine hiked bills for many energy-intensive industries. Congested power grids, national taxes and the EU’s CO2 emissions price also contribute to power prices – which for industries in Europe are more than double those in the United States and China. The EU’s electricity system is designed so that the last power plant needed to meet total demand sets the power price. Often, that is a natural gas plant – leaving many consumers highly exposed to gas prices, which are significantly higher in Europe than in the U.S.  (Reuters)

The March put options on the CME were active on Thursday. The March $3.20/$3.00 put spread traded 9.6 cents with 0.18 delta March futures bought at $3.23. The March $3.00/$2.75 put spread traded more actively,  with prices ranging from 5.1 to 5.6 cents cost. The March $2.75 put's open interest rose by over 11,000 contracts Thursday. The March April CSO also was active with the plus 25 cent call trading 4.5 cents in what looks to have been a closing of a position. The plus 10 cent/flat put spread in the March April CSO traded 4.8 cents. The $1.00/$2.00 call spread in the March April CSO traded 0.4 cents. The March April futures spread settled Thursday at +13.2 cents.

Technically the March futures have oversold momentum basis the DC chart, while the March daily chart's momentum is getting near oversold. Support for the spot futures is seen at this week's lows at 3.055/3.061. Resistance comes in at 3.280-3.288.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC