Daily Energy Market Update February 11, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as US Iran tension is said to continue to support prices. A weaker US dollar was also seen supporting energy prices overnight.

The US is said to be considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if Iran talks fail. (Quantum Commodities)  The Trump administration has discussed whether to seize Iranian oil tankers to pressure Tehran but have held off amid concern for retaliation and the impact on global oil markets, U.S. officials said cited by Bloomberg. Additionally adding somewhat to geopolitical tension, the Indian Coast Guard seized three tankers it said were smuggling oil, in the first sign action against dark fleet tankers. (Market News)

US Non Farm Payroll data showed a much stronger addition of jobs than was forecast. NFP data showed 130,000 new jobs added in January. Estimates were for an increase of 55,000 to 65,000. The dollar rose on the news and crude oil fell back a little. Revisions to December and November NFP data reduced jobs data by 17,000.

API                Forecast           Actual
Crude Oil    -0.4/+0.8           +13.4
Gasoline    -1.8/+0.638        +3.3
Distillate     -1.3/-2.4             -2.0
Cushing          n/av                +1.4
Runs           Unch/+0.3%       n/av
The increase in crude oil inventories was the largest since January of 2023. This week's build comes after last week's draw of 11.1 MMBBL. We wonder if both last week's and this week's data are skewed due to the recent storm and extreme weather seen in the US which disrupted crude oil production and shipping.

Today, in their monthly oil report, OPEC kept its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 unchanged, projecting an increase of 1.38 MMBPD this year, bringing total demand to 106.5 MMBPD.  For 2027, OPEC expects demand to grow by around 1.34 MMBPD, reaching 107.86 MMBPD. This 2027 demand forecast was also unchanged from last month's report. World demand for OPEC+ crude will average 42.20 MMBPD in the second quarter, OPEC said in the report, down from 42.60 MMBPD in the first quarter. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month's report. OPEC also kept their supply forecasts unchanged versus last month's report. OPEC reported that their January oil production fell on the month by 135 MBPD to 28.45 MMBPD. They also reported that OPEC+ production in January fell by 439 MBPD from December to a total of 42.45 MMBPD.

The EIA said in their monthly STEO issued Tuesday, that they expect oil prices will decline in 2026, as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise, and they add that inventories will increase in 2027 as well. That being said, the EIA raised their 2026 average Brent and WTI price forecasts this month from last month. Brent is seen averaging $57.69, up $1.82 versus January's estimate. The WTI price estimate for 2026 was raised by $1.21 to $53.42. But, next year's average price estimates were lowered. WTI is seen averaging $49.34  in 207; this is down $1.02 from January's forecast. Brent is seen averaging $53.00, which is also down $1.02 from last month's forecast. The lower price estimates are likely due to the large increase in global oil production that the EIA is forecasting for 2027. Output next year is seen at 108.8 MMBPD, which is up 600 MBPD from their January production estimate.

US Treasury yields are at a 5 week low which has pressured the US dollar. Yields have been pressured by an unexpected setback in US retail sales and the view that today’s non-farm payrolls may come in weaker than anticipated. (Bloomberg) But, as mentioned above the dollar rose after the stronger jobs data was released.

Gasoil stocks in the ARA region have built through January and early February – rising by a little more than 9% so far this year to 2.14m tonnes – helping to take stocks back towards the 5-year average. (ING) 

The US retail prices for gasoline and diesel have risen further today. The national average gasoline price is $2.937, up 1.6 cents from yesterday. One month ago, the price was $2.795. Today's diesel average price is up 0.8 cents from yesterday to $3.667. One month ago the price was $3.511.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum for the WTI looks to be pointing upward while that for ULSD remains negative. RB's DC chart based momentum looks to be turning negative even as the contract has risen to its best spot futures value since mid-November.

WTI  spot futures resistance at 65.53 has been pierced today. Above this resistance lies at 66.42-66.48. Support comes in at 63.64-63.65.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 1.1 cents at $3.104
NG futures are lower as near term weather demand has weakened.

14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF have continued to relentlessly trend lower, now far below the 5-year average, as per Celsius Energy commentary. National demand is likely to be light through Friday, "as most of the U.S. experiences mild to nice temperatures with highs of 40s-70s," NatGasWeather.com said in a note.

Celsius Energy analysis shows that gas in storage dropped below 2,100 BCF yesterday. This is 7 days earlier than the 5 year average (Feb 17) & 5 days earlier than last year (Feb 15). Look for storage to drop below 2,000 BCF by next Thursday, Feb 19, which would be 2 days later than last year.

The EIA in their monthly STEO issued Tuesday raised their price forecasts in February and March by an average of almost 40% from the January STEO, as they reduced their end of season gas inventories by 8% from last month's forecast on the back of the strong stock draws seen due to the extreme weather in January.  End of March 2026 inventories are now seen at 1.866 TCF; this is down 165 BCF from their January estimate. But, the EIA added that they expect that price increases will moderate as drilling activity drives increases in natural gas production later in the forecast period. The 2026 average price forecast was raised by 85 cents to $4.31. but for 2027 they reduced their price estimate by 21 cents to $4.38. US gas production in 2026 is seen at 110.0 BCF/d, which is up 1.2 BCF/d from the January estimate. In 2027 US gas production is seen at 111.2 BCF/d, which is an increase of 1.5 BCF/d from January's forecast. US gas demand estimates though were also raised, though not by as much as the production ones. in 2026, US gas demand is seen at 91.6 BCF/d, up 1.3 BCF/d from January's data and in 2027 demand is seen at 91.5 BCF/d, up 0.6 BCF/d from last month's figure. 

In LN/NG options on the CME on Tuesday, the April October minus 50 cent put CSO 12,000 contracts traded 14.6 cents. The spread was trading minus 56.5 cents at the time. The trade was mostly a closing of a position as per CME open interest. Also in the April October CSO, the minus 20 cent call traded 0.8 and 1.3 cents in closing out trades. In the March April 2026 CSO's, the +25 cent call traded 5.0 cents. The futures spread settled Tuesday at 8.9 cents. In the March April of 2027 CSO, 2,000 contracts of the +25 cent put traded 24.0 cents, with the futures spread worth +33.0 cents at the time.

Notably in the TTF options on the CME on Tuesday, 1,000 contracts of the April, May and June Euro 21 put options traded at a cost of 0.19 Euro with 0.02 delta futures purchased at Euro 29.00. The April through June strip settled Tuesday at an average price of 29.851 Euro. Technically, the spot TTF futures contract still has a gap to fill above from 34.075 to 34.100 Euro. The contract is trading near 32.60 Euro ( $11.38/MMBTU) this morning with momentum basis the DC chart still somewhat negative. The contract is being pressured by record LNG imports into Europe and forecasts that have "shifted warmer", as per NGI commentary. This comes even as of February 7th, European gas in storage was at 37.1% of capacity, well below last year's level of 49.4%. The 5 year average is 53.82%.

Technically the NG spot futures have just fallen to a fresh low since January 16.  Support at 3.051 has almost been tested wit the current low being 3.055. Next support below lies at 3.007. Resistance above comes in at 3.241-3.242. There is an intraday double top from today's session at 3.164. Momentum basis the DC chart is getting oversold.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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