Daily Energy Market Update February 10,2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil prices are higher--with Brent outpacing WTI. Product prices are lower though --led by distillates. The US Iran conflict/relations remains the key focus for the oil markets.

The crude oil price has been supported over the past 24 hours primarily by the news seen Monday that the US Maritime Administration issued a warning to US ships to stay as far away as possible from Iranian waters, and to verbally decline Iranian forces' permission to board if asked. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday that prices were supported by geopolitics, with a pickup in oil on vessels as buyers seek to secure more oil amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, the European Union has proposed extending its sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, the first time the bloc would target ports in third countries, according to a proposal document seen by Reuters.

The Indian Oil Corp. is said to have bought 6 MMBBL of crude oil from West Africa and the Mideast as it seeks to move away from purchasing Russian oil. (Reuters)

OPEC's oil output fell in January due to lower supply from Nigeria and Libya, a Reuters survey found on Monday, which offset increases in members including Venezuela. OPEC  pumped 28.34 MMBPD in January, down 60 MBPD from December's total, the survey showed. Reuters adds that " many members are running close to capacity limits." 

Additionally on Monday, Reuters reported that Venezuela's oil production has risen to near 1 MMBPD, with Venezuelan exports of crude and refined products having risen to some 800 MBPD in January. Venezuela's overall oil production had fallen to as low as 880 MBPD in early January. One key producing region has seen output rise by more than 100 MBPD since early January.

Outlook for Diesel Bearish After Spring Maintenance--as per a Kpler analysis headline seen Monday. The most recent bullish global diesel prices have been linked to the price surge seen n the U.S. East Coast, Kpler said. The US has not been able to rebuild stocks during winter in PADD1 (which is the Padd for the East Coast-which includes the CME delivery location) over the past two years due to cold winters. Low stocks have meant that PADD 1 has needed to pull from the USGC, and even from Mexico and a cargo from Europe. Kpler sees this tightness in the global diesel market being alleviated after Spring maintenance, supported by higher Russian refinery runs. Russian diesel flows have headed to Brazil, freeing up volumes to head to Europe and the US. If the US boosts buying of heavy crude from Venezuela and adjusts its crude slates, it will also raise diesel yields. European diesel demand looks weak, painting a bleak picture for diesel cracks post spring maintenance.

The retail prices for gasoline and diesel have risen today to $2.921 and $3.659 respectively, as per AAA data. These prices are up significantly from one month ago. The gasoline retail price one month ago was $2.799, while that for diesel was $3.519. Today's gasoline and diesel prices are in fact the best since December 12th. 

Energy Market Technicals

Technically the crude oils have seen their momentum basis the DC charts turn positive, although the price pattern still looks mostly sideways. The sideways pattern persists for the distillates as well. RB has the best look in the energy complex as it tested the psychological level of $2.00 on Monday. Yet, momentum for the RB is getting near overbought.

WTI spot futures support lies at 62.62-62.65 and then at 62.05-62.07. Resistance comes in at 65.53 and then at 66.42-66.48.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 2.1 cents at $3.117
NG futures are lower having slipped overnight to a fresh low since Jan. 16. Weather demand in the near term remains on the weaker side with the latest forecast showing a slight drop in the European weather model's Total Degree Days. As NGI said yesterday: "traders (have) wagered that winter’s strongest demand has come and gone."

The Henry Hub (HH) next day cash versus spot futures premium has eroded--having fallen Monday to flat. The HH was quoted early in the day at $3.17/$3.24 with the March futures printing $3.179. The cash had held a premium for the last 2 plus weeks. On Friday, the cash to futures premium had been about 68 cents. Prices at Henry Hub average $3.225/MMBtu on Monday, down $1.190, per NGI’s MidDay Price Alert.

Early estimates seen for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a draw of 260.10 to 273 BCF. This compares to last year's draw of 111 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 146 BCF.

A whole host of fences traded in the March and April options on Monday. The March $3.25 call was bought versus selling of the $3.00 put at a cost of 3.2 cents with 0.80 delta futures sold at $3.13. The April $4.25 call was sold against which the $2.75 put was bought at a cost of both 5.5 and 5.7 cents with 0.40 delta April futures bought at $3.11. The April $4.00 call was sold and the $3.00 put was bought. One trade of which happened at a cost of 16.5 cents with 0.60 delta April futures buys at $3.07. One other trade of which was seen at a cost of 13.7 cents with 0.60 delta futures buys at $3.11. The October $3.00 put was sold twice against buying of one $3.85 put at a cost of 17.25 cents. The October futures settled at $3.613. Thus the $3.85 put was 23.7 cents in the money. 

Technically the DC chart for NG is showing momentum getting near oversold. Support at 3.112-3.114 was pierced overnight. Next support below lies at 3.051 and then at 3.007. Does the market have the willpower and reason to test below $3.00? Resistance comes in at 3.241-3.242--which is below the bottom of the gap created over the weekend that goes from 3.265 to 3.387.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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