Daily Energy Market Update December 9,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy prices are lower, with HO leading the drop. But, WTI continues its overall sideways price pattern as the market is buffeted by a lack of Ukraine peace progress and expectations of a Fed rate cut set against supply surplus forecasts. The market is awaiting the monthly report from the EIA today, followed by the OPEC & IEA monthly reports Thursday.

Reuters reporting has the crude price fall seen Monday being largely due to the restoration of production at the Iraqi oil field owned by Lukoil, after a leak on an export pipeline slashed its output. Lukoil had declared force majeure last month after being hit with sanctions by the US.  A strengthening US dollar and weaker equities were also seen as weights on energy prices Monday as per news wire commentary.

Ukraine will share a revised peace plan with the U.S. after talks in London between its President Zelenskiy and the leaders of France, Germany and Britain. (Reuters)

Markets are pricing in an 87% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction by the Federal Reserve tomorrow.

Saudi Arabia is significantly increasing its crude oil allocations to China for January 2026, restoring volumes to near 49.5 MMBBL (about 1.6 MMBPD), a three-month high, driven by sharp official selling price cuts for Arab Light crude, making it more attractive for Chinese buyers like PetroChina and Rongsheng to lift more, overcoming previous lower shipments. The prior 2 months shipments had fallen to 40 MMBBL. (Reuters)

IATA issued its latest financial outlook for the global airline industry today, forecasting that load factors will continue to set record highs with airlines expected to fill 83.8% of all seats over the year 2026. Passenger numbers and cargo volumes are set to rise by 4.4% and 2.4% respectively in 2026 from this year. (iata.org)

Al-Zour refinery maintenance is now expected until late-December, compared to a December 9 restart previously expected, according to The Officials on Friday. That refinery has a capacity of 615 MBPD.

The US retail gasoline price has fallen further today to a fresh low since May 2021. Today's price as per AAA data is $2.945. One month ago the price was $3.070.

CME open interest data for WTI futures from Monday's activity shows a drop of 28,250 contracts, which looks to be mostly long liquidation in the January contract.

Energy Market Technicals

The RB fell today to its lowest DC spot futures price since February 22, 2021. RB momentum basis the DC chart is neutral and oversold. WTI momentum is positive, while ULSD DC chart momentum is neutral at a near oversold condition.

WTI spot futures see support at 58.27-58.28 and then at 57.66-57.68. Resistance lies at 59.97-60.02 and then at 60.44-60.38.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 19.3 cents at $4.719
NG futures have fallen further after Monday's sharp fall as weather forecasts dialed back some late December demand. Storage withdrawals remain strong, as are LNG export volumes. NGI commentary today cites a "widespread thawing in the second half of December."

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly near normal through December 23. (Reuters) Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said that the forecast shifted slightly colder over the eastern and southern US for December 18-22, but noticeably warmer elsewhere. Also, other weather models support a broad-scale warmer risk as cold air is confined to Canada. (Barchart)

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.7 BCF/d so far in December, up from a monthly record high of 109.6 BCF/d in November.

Average gas flows to the eight large LNG export plants in the U.S. rose to 18.9 BCF/d so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 BCF/d in November. NGI data shows LNG export feed gas volume Monday stood at 19.39 BCF/d, in line with the prior 4 days. The record volume of 19.53 BCF/d was set on Thursday and Friday of last week. 

On Monday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 143.8 BCF/d this week to 146.0 BCF/d next week. These forecasts are up 5.0 BCF/d total from those seen Friday.

Gas inventories in storage have seen the surplus to the 5 year average cut in half over the past 2 weeks, as per Celsius Energy data. They see the surplus falling further to 25 BCF. Last week's EIA data had the surplus at 191 BCF/5.12%. But, one investor said: "inventories remain 5% above the five-year average and that does not usually justify prices with a mid-$5 handle." Celsius Energy sees inventories having fallen Monday below 3.7 TCF. Last week's EIA data had inventories at 3.923 TCF. Celsius says that the fall below 3.7 TCF has happened 7 days later than the 5 year average of December 1, but earlier by one day than last year when it fell below 3.7 TCF on December 9th.

Options activity of note from the CME from Monday shows the January February CSO 50 cent / $1.00 call spread having traded 5.3 cents. Additionally, the January February $1.00 call traded against the $1.50 call at a cost of 1.8 cents. Also in the January February CSO, the 40 cent/50 cent call spread traded 2.8 cents. The January $5.50 call saw a large open interest increase; among the trades seen in that strike were the $5.25/$5.50/$5.75 call butterfly having traded 1.8 cents cost to the buyer of the wings. The March April CSO  25 / 50/ 75 cent call butterfly traded 5,000 contracts worth at a cost of 1.5 cents to the buyer of the wings. The trade was being initiated as per CME open interest data. 2,000 contracts of the March April flat/-5 cent put spread traded 2.3 cents. The March April futures spread settled Monday at 11.2 cents.

Technically, Monday the spot NG futures settled down 7.13% from Friday. Some of the fall may have been a function of the index funds rolling longs from January to March as the open interest on the CME shows a drop of 23,628 contracts in January futures and an increase of 15,132 contracts in the March 2026 contract.

Support for the spot NG futures at 4.750-4.758 has been broken. Below that support lies at 4.674-4.677. Resistance comes in at 4.874-4.881, which was tested with the overnight high of 4.878. Above that resistance is seen at 4.51-4.952. Momentum is negative basis the DC chart.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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