Daily Energy Market Update December 24,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

RB and crude oil are up, slightly while HO is down slightly in the holiday shortened session with today's price ranges being very small. The energy market is seen being supported by the ongoing tension from the US blockade of Venezuela and the continued attacks on  energy infrastructure being seen in Russia and Ukraine. News wire accounts also cite the strong US GDP figure seen yesterday as supporting prices. The GDP data propelled the S&P 500 to a new record high yesterday.

API                  Forecast      Actual
Crude Oil          -2.6            +2.39
Gasoline           +0.3           +1.09
Distillate           -0.4           +0.685
Refinery runs   -0.4%         n/av
Cushing              n/av         +0.6
The DOE oil data will be released Monday 12/29 at 10:30 AM (EST).
 
At least half a dozen sanctioned tankers have loaded oil from Venezuela since December 11, when the U.S. escalated the pressure on Venezuelan oil exports, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, quoting data from Kpler. Loadings of oil from Venezuelan ports appear to have been happening in recent weeks at a more or less typical pace despite the U.S. crackdown on vessels involved in illicit oil trade, according to Kpler’s data. Most of Venezuela’s crude is being shipped on shadow-fleet tankers to China. (Oil Price)

The EIA, in its weekly retail fuel price update issued Tuesday, showed the gasoline price falling on the week by 5.2 cents to $2.817, which was the lowest price since the week of March 8, 2021. The diesel retail price fell by 6.3 cents on the week to $3.544, which was the lowest seen since June 9 of this year.

In China, mainland equities logged their sixth straight winning session, their longest run since July, supported by regional market strength amid thin holiday trading.(tradingeconomics.com)

The Baker Hughes oil rig count issued Tuesday showed an increase of 3 units.

Energy Market Technicals

February crude oil is on track today for the 5th straight session of a higher settlement, which would be the longest such streak seen since late March, as per WSJ reporting. Momentum is positive for the energies.

WTI spot futures have tested resistance at 58.72-58.80 with the high today of 58.75. Above this resistance comes in at 59.41-59.42. Support lies at 57.38-57.42 and then at 56.60.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas-- February NG is down 7.6 cents at $3.820
NG futures are lower now after rallying overnight. Prices are now well off the overnight highs as the market gives back some of the strong rally seen yesterday. 

NG's rally Tuesday was the strongest one day move seen in 3 years, as colder weather forecasts collided with thinning holiday liquidity, as per NGI reporting. The NOAA 6-10 day temp outlook shows a dramatic shift in below-normal temps encroaching on the eastern third of the L48, concentrated in large coastal cities in New England and the Northeast. As per one colleague's comment : "winter is not over yet." Celsius Energy said that although near term demand is bearish with daily storage injections of 5 BCF/d through this weekend, next week will see daily storage withdrawals in excess of 30 BCF/d, which is double the 5 year average, they add.

Record LNG demand was cited as another element boosting prices Tuesday. Average deliveries to the eight major US LNG plants rose to 18.5 BCF/d so far in December, surpassing November’s record of 18.2 BCF/d. Tuesday's LNG feedgas volume was seen at 18.6 BCF/d, up from an average of 18.1 BCF/d seen last week. (Hellenic Shipping News) 

On Tuesday, NG demand was forecast for this week at 127.9 BCF/d and next week at 136.0 BCF/d as per LSEG. These forecasts were up 3.1 BCF/d from the prior day's estimates.

Yet, NG production in the U.S. continues to set a record. December gas production so far has averaged 111.1 BCF/d, up from November's record of 109.6 BCF/d, as per LSEG data. 

The Baker Hughes gas rig count issued Tuesday showed an unchanged amount.

The pattern seen the past 3 sessions in NG futures settlements continued Tuesday with the forward curve strengthening considerably. January NG futures settled up 44.3 cents, February up 32.5 cents, March up 22.2 cents.

Bloomberg reported the wholesale price of LNG in China had dropped to $10.72 this week, which was the lowest price seen since the middle of 2021. Traders have attributed the price drop to a combination of factors, including high levels of gas in storage and an abundance of supply. What’s more, the weather forecast suggests milder than expected temperatures in parts of the country, and industrial demand has remained subdued, according to S&P Global.

The following comments were heard yesterday with regard to NG futures:  a move over $4.20 for NG would be (1) the gateway to a new price regime.  (2) above the $4.20 level, then the market could go much higher from here. One colleague suggested that Tuesday's sharp up move was a "blowout day".

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC