Daily Energy Market Update December 17,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil futures have rebounded from near five-year lows seen Tuesday as President Trump has ordered a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.

President Trump said Venezuela was "completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America," in a post on Truth Social late Tuesday. President Trump said he now regarded Venezuela's rulers as a foreign terrorist organisation. It is unclear how many tankers will be affected and how the U.S. will impose the blockade against the sanctioned vessels. "Venezuelan oil production accounts for around 1% of global output, but supplies are concentrated among a small group of buyers, mainly Chinese teapot refiners, the U.S., and Cuba," said an analyst at Kpler.  (Reuters)  Venezuela exported around 600 MBPD of oil in November. (ING)

API                Forecast         Actual
Crude Oil     -0.4/-2.4        -9.300
Gasoline     +1.2/+2.1         +4.8
Distillate     -1.0/+1.4          +2.5
Cushing           n/av              -0.51
Runs           Unch/+0.7%      n/av

China's crude surplus rose in November to 1.88 MMBPD to the highest since April amid a surge in imports and steady refinery processing rates, Reuters showed.

Global onshore crude oil inventories have surged to 3.570 billion barrels, the highest since the summer of 2021, according to Kpler.

Bloomberg reports that the US is readying new sanctions against Russia id President Putin rejects a peace deal. Ukraine President Zelensky has ruled out a ceasefire by Christmas, saying Russia is likely to reject a new European-backed peace proposal and that Ukraine must be ready to continue fighting. (independent.co.uk)  Ukraine drones hit a Russian refinery, that had been hit twice before in August and November. The refinery has an annual processing capacity of 5.2 million tons, which equates to 38.12 MMBBL or 104.4 MBPD. (Kyiv Post)

The price of Russia’s crude has tumbled over the past three months to its lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, weighed down by intensified U.S. sanctions and falling international benchmarks. Russian crude shipped out of all major export terminals on the Black Sea, Baltic Sea, and Far East port of Kozmino fetches just about $40 per barrel currently, per Argus Media data cited by Bloomberg on Tuesday.  The key Urals crude oil grade's discount to Brent has widened to the highest level since May 2023 since the U.S. announced the sanctions at the end of October.  (Oil Price)

A US major sold a cargo of medium sour Alaska North Slope (ANS) to an Asian refiner as the mothballing of California refineries curbs local demand for the grade, Bloomberg reports. ANS typically accounts for about 13% of California refineries oil supply, or about 68 MBPD. The last time ANS sailed to Asia was in April, when Hyundai Oilbank’s Daesan refinery took 1 MMBBL, according to Kpler data.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically the energies were oversold with yesterday's price action. February WTI has a mean reversion setup from Tuesday's close below the lower bollinger band on the daily chart. The WTI spot futures tested the lower weekly and DC chart bollinger bands yesterday. February RB had an RSI yesterday under 30--signaling an oversold commodity. Momentum for the February ULSD remains oversold.

February WTI support comes in at yesterday's low at 54.89. Resistance lies at 57.44-57.46. The lower bollinger band on the February daily chart comes in at 55.68.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas---NG is up 12.6 cents at $4.012
NG spot futures are higher today with several analysts suggesting the selloff was overdone--for now. The weather forecast has added back some demand since the large drop in HDD's seen Tuesday.

NatGasWeather has added back 15.4 HDD's in the GFS weather model over the last 2 weather forecasts, after seeing a drop of 22 HDD's in the prior forecast. On Tuesday, before the latest forecasts, forecaster Atmospheric G2 said that much warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected over the western and southern US for December 21-25.  Also, forecasts shifted warmer across most of the US for December 26-30.

Tuesday's MNI data showed feedgas demand at 18.14 BCF/d, trailing the 30-day moving average of 18.37 BCF/d.

European TTF gas prices have steadied in recent days. The spot futures contract has a sideways price pattern to the last almost 2 weeks worth of trading. There is a double bottom at 26.530-26.535 from last week. ING offers the following commentary re the European gas market: forecasts show that weather is set to turn colder than usual later in the month, which should provide some support to prices. Particularly when you consider that EU gas storage is below average, at 69% full at the moment vs. a 5-year average of 78%. The record-large gross short that investment funds hold in TTF continues to pose a risk. Momentum basis the TTF DC chart has turned positive since making the low 1 week ago.

Tuesday's settlement put the drop in spot NG futures at 26.5% in the past 7 sessions since the multi year high was made. Technically NG spot futures are oversold basis the DC chart. Support for the spot futures is seen at 3.916-3.920 and then at 3.873-3.877 via the January 60 minute chart. Resistance comes in at 4.082 then at 4.145-4.146.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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