Daily Energy Market Update December 16,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies have fallen further today as the Ukraine peace talks hold out prospects for a deal. Additionally, yesterday's disappointing Chinese economic data is weighing on prices today. The down move in energy prices comes even as the US is preparing to seize more Venezuelan oil tankers according to Axios sources.

The U.S. offered to provide NATO-style security guarantees for Kyiv and European negotiators reported progress in talks on Monday to end Russia's war in Ukraine, sparking optimism that an end to the conflict was closer. Russia, meanwhile, said it was not willing to make any territorial concessions in talks on ending the Ukraine war, state news agency TASS quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying.  (Reuters)

India, a key buyer of Russian oil since the Russia/Ukraine war began, will reportedly see imports of Russian crude fall to around 800 MBPD this month, down from around 1.9 MMBPD in November. Russian oil production has held up, but this oil is still struggling to find buyers, hence oil inventory stored at sea has risen. (ING) 

The January LO WTI options expire today with very little significant open interest on the CME worth noting : The $59 calls have open interest on the CME of 16,463 contracts and the $55 puts have open interest of 17.574 contracts as of the close of business Monday. There are no other nearby strikes on the CME with open interest over 10,000 contracts. Hence -in our opinion --the options expiration should not cause any fireworks at settlement today when they expire.
 
Trend-following commodity trading advisers were 100% short in both Brent and WTI on Monday, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group. (source : Bloomberg) Open interest in WTI futures on the CME rose by 20,002 contracts in Monday's activity, even as the soon to expire January futures saw open interest fall by 19,140 contracts. We suspect more new shorts were added in February, March and April futures, given the increases seen in those months. As of last Tuesday, speculators held a net long of 58,578 lots in ICE gasoil, down from a peak of 102,195 lots as of 25 November. (ING)

Reuters commentary suggests that any loss of Venezuelan crude exports will not affect China much; China is the main destination for Venezuelan crude. China increased some purchases from Venezuela over the  4 months prior to the sanctions being imposed. The Venezuelan supply comes on top of ample deliveries from other sanctioned producers Russia and Iran, which have led to mounting volumes of oil in floating storage in Asia. Asian floating oil storage hit 71 MMBBL last week, rising from 53 MMBBL at end-October and about 33 MMBBL in early September, Kpler data showed, adding to pressure that had deepened discounts on Venezuelan crude. At least one-third of the estimated 650 MBPD of Merey crude oil discharged in November in China is still looking for end-buyers, said one Vortexa analyst. Chevron has lowered the price of Venezuelan crude offered to US refiners following the seizure of a tanker by US forces: Bloomberg.

On Monday, a report was seen that according to GasBuddy data compiled from millions of price reports, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline now stands at $2.85, marking its lowest point since March 12, 2021. Over the last month, the price is down 22 cents.

The US Non Farm Payroll (NFP) data issued today showed 64,000 new jobs added in November. The WSJ consensus estimate was for 45,000 new jobs to be added. The October NFP data showed 105,000 jobs were lost. This figure was heavily influenced by over 150,000 federal employees who accepted buyouts as part of a government reduction program.

Energy Market Technicals

The spot Brent and WTI futures are testing their DC chart lower bollinger bands. For Brent that band lies at $60.10 and for WTI it lies at $56.20. Momentum remains negative for the WTI, but is oversold for the products basis their DC charts.

WTI support lies at 55.30 from the low seen in May. Resistance comes in at the prior support area at 56.99/57.01.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 10.2 cents at $3.910
NG futures remain under pressure from the late December warmer weather picture.

The sell off in NG futures comes even as the storage surplus to the 5 year average has turned to a deficit in the past day, although that will be short-lived as temperatures rise and storage withdrawals will lessen. Celsius Energy says that the turn to a storage deficit versus the 5 year average was the first such on a daily basis since April 25th.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through December 30. (Reuters) Monday's forecasts shifted generally warmer for Dec. 25-29: Atmospheric G2.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 145.2 BCF/d this week to 131.6 BCF/d next week. These forecasts from Monday were up a total of 8.2 BCF/d from those seen Friday.

On the CME Monday, the TTF February Euro 29 / 34 call spread went in a 1 by 1.5 ratio at a cost of 0.38 Euro. In other options, in the March April NG/LN CSO, the $1.00 call traded 9,500 contracts worth at a cost of 1.3 cents. The open interest on the CME in this option strike fell by 3,625 contracts. The March April 2026 futures spread settled Monday at +2.7 cents. 

NGI data shows that the current January 2026 futures are priced over the average of the prior 10 years. $4.00 Henry Hub gas is still well ahead of typical January pricing. NGI’s January Henry Hub Bidweek index between 2016 and 2025, when expressed on a real basis (in September 2025 dollars), has a median value of $3.585. Next day Henry Hub cash fell to $3.830/3.930 Monday at midday; this was in line with Friday's value of $3.910. The cash/futures differential remained near 20 cents, favor of the futures.

The Golden Pass LNG plant is getting much closer to LNG production, now seen happening in early 2026 with its Train 1 likely to add 0.8 BCF/d in feed gas demand. (NGI)

Technically NG has fallen to its lowest value since the end of October. NG spot futures settled lower Monday for the 5th session in the last 6. Momentum remains negative, although it is getting close to being oversold. Support below comes in at 3.811-3.818. Resistance is seen at 4.060-4.067.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC