Daily Energy Market Update December 15,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude prices are lower as oversupply concerns and a US push for a Ukraine peace deal are outweighing tensions between the US and Venezuela. Chinese industrial production data disappointed.

Venezuela's oil exports have fallen sharply since the United States seized a tanker last week and imposed fresh sanctions on shipping companies and vessels doing business with the Latin American oil producer. Washington last week also sanctioned six supertankers that recently loaded Venezuelan oil, along with related shipping companies, in an escalation of U.S. pressure on Venezuelan President Maduro. Reuters adds that oil tanker movements into and out of Venezuelan waters have come to a near standstill as the U.S. prepares to seize more vessels. Venezuela exported some 952 MBPD of crude and fuel in November, the third-highest monthly average so far this year. About 80% of those shipments were sent directly and indirectly to China, while exports to the U.S. rose to some 150 MBPD.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy offered to drop his country’s aspiration to join the NATO military alliance as he held five hours of talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin on Sunday. Negotiations are set to continue on Monday. The US is pushing to get a peace deal done before the end of the year. (Reuters)

Drone attacks hit oil depots and refineries in Volgograd, Yaroslavl, Krasnodar Krai, and Crimea, triggering fires, evacuations, and airport closures, Russian officials said. Ukraine said it struck Russia's Afipsky and Yaroslavl oil refineries overnight on 14 December, targeting two major processing centres. Reuters says that a primary crude distillation unit (CDU) was damaged at the Yaroslavl refinery. The Yaroslav refinery is the 4th largest in Russia, with an annual processing capacity of 15 million tons ( =109.95 MMBBL / 301.2 MBPD). The Afipsky refinery has an annual capacity of 9.1 million tons ( =66.7 MMBBL/182.7 MBPD).  (Kyiv Post)

Chinese industrial production missed estimates in November. China's factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low. Industrial output rose 4.8% year-on-year, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Monday, the weakest pace since August 2024, slowing from 4.9% in October. It missed a 5.0% increase forecast in a Reuters poll. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew 1.3%, their weakest pace since December 2022, when China ended pandemic restrictions, well below 2.9% in October and forecasts for a 2.8% gain. (Reuters)

Oil product output in China last month rose 4% versus the same time last year amid stronger crude imports after Beijing granted fresh quotas for refiners. (Quantum Commodities) China’s crude oil throughput in November rose 3.9% on the year to 60.83 million tons (=445.9 MMBBL/14.86 MMBPD),  but that was little changed from October, NBS data showed with new import quotas set against state refinery maintenance.

The Baker Hughes oil rig count rose by 1 unit in Friday's report.

Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 32,310 contracts to 107,816 in the week ending December 9. Long-only positions fell by 15,395 contracts, while Short-only positions rose by 16,915 contracts. (UBS)

The US retail gasoline price has fallen further today. The price at the pump is $2.906, as per AAA data. That is down from a price of $3.076 seen one month ago. The retail diesel price has fallen today to $3.632, down from $3.770 seen one month ago. 

Energy Market Technicals

RB February resistance is seen at 1.7805-1.7809. Support comes in at 1.7380 and then at 1.7256.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas-- NG is down 4.3 cents at $4.070
Late December warmth is pressuring NG prices even as forecasts over the weekend added heating demand from Friday's forecast. Yet, NatGasWeather still shows days 3-15 having Low to Very Low demand after days 1-2's High demand. Celsius Energy put Sunday's daily gas storage withdrawal at over 30 BCF, which they said was a new seasonal high.

US LNG feedgas demand is down 0.228 BCF/d today to 17.47 BCF/d compared to an average of 18.3 BCF/d over the previous week.  (Market News)

US domestic natural gas production is estimated 0.245 BCF/d higher today at 113.17 BCF/d yesterday compared to the 30-day average of 112.76 BCF/d, according to BNEF.

This week's EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 164 to 173.3 BCF. This compares to last year's draw of 131 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 96 BCF.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count fell by 2 units in Friday's report.

TTF prices in Europe have steadied after making a double bottom last week at 26.530/26.535 Euro/Mwh. Currently, the spot TTF futures are printing 27.540 Euro/Mwh (= $9.49/MMBtu).  European gas storage was down to 71.29% full on Dec. 10th, according to GIE data, amid small net withdrawals this week. The previous 5-year seasonal average is 80.9% full. One analyst cited by Reuters says : Physical gas players are buying the TTF dip, building record net longs as commercial operators stock up on cheap feedstock, cheaper winter hedges, or a chance to lock in margins on physical operations, while hedge funds extended their net short position recently.

In Asia, Energy Aspects says:  "Ongoing robust global LNG loadings and mild weather continue to put downward pressure on Asian LNG prices."  But, they added that softer prices have encouraged some Indian buyers to increase purchases, as well as buying interest from Chinese importers. This spot demand, however, is mostly limited to opportunistic price-sensitive demand, with northeast Asian utilities largely well stocked, said the Argus head of LNG pricing. (Reuters)

Technically the January NG settled over the lower bollinger band Friday, thus confirming the mean reversion setup from Thursday. NG spot futures see support at 4.035/4.036 and then at 3.987. Resistance lies at the overnight high at 4.217-4.222 and then at 4.264-4.266. Momentum remains negative basis the DC chart.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC