Daily Energy Market Update December 12,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

WTI futures are a little lower as the energy contracts are having inside days versus yesterday's price range. The news wires tout the fact that crude oil is set for a weekly loss on oversupply concerns and the ongoing efforts to reach a peace deal in the Ukraine conflict. The retail gasoline price in the US has hit a fresh multi year low today as per AAA data.

The AAA says the average gasoline price in the US today is $2.932. This is down from the price of $3.075 seen one month ago.

Talk of the efforts to reach a peace deal in the Ukraine conflict come even as fighting rages on. Ukrainian aerial drones struck a Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea for the first time on Thursday, halting production at the facility owned by Lukoil, according to an official from Ukraine's Security Service. (Reuters) Ukrainian President Zelenskiy floated the prospect of putting the issue of territorial control in the country’s east to a referendum as Kyiv comes under mounting pressure to agree to terms of an emerging peace plan to end Russia’s war. " (Bloomberg) Recent attacks by Ukraine on one of the primary export terminals for Kazakh oil has limited output by an estimated 270 MBPD since Nov. 29. (Market News)

On Thursday, the US Treasury Secretary said that the US was preparing to intercept more tankers off of the coast of Venezuela. Asian buyers are demanding steep discounts on Venezuelan crude as they weigh plentiful sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran against the rising risks of loading in Venezuela, Reuters said. 30% of Venezuelan crude exports are at risk as US-Venezuela tensions escalate following the seizure of an oil tanker, according to Rapidan Energy Group cited by Bloomberg.

Premiums for Mars, Poseidon, Thunder Horse and Western Canadian Select are all dropping substantially week on week, according to Sparta Commodities. The first 3 crudes mentioned here are medium grades of crude oil. The price for Mars crude oil may be responding to cheaper crude abroad. In Asia, the grade looks substantially less attractive month to month versus alternative Arabian Gulf grades into the Far East.

Citi expects crude prices to ease further to an average of $60/bbl through Q1 of 2026 as stock builds materialize in OECD inventories, Reuters reports. While Macquarie sees an oil market surplus in Q1 2026 peaking at 4 MMBPD, driving Brent toward the low $50s with a possibility of reaching $45/bbl, according to a note cited by Bloomberg. Brent crude oil is forecast to average $65/bbl next year with a surplus of 1.9 MMBPD, but inventories remain low, Barclays said, cited by Reuters. Low spare capacity and geopolitical tensions pose asymmetric upside risks.

Energy Market Technicals

WTI momentum basis the DC chart is negative, while that for the RB & ULSD are oversold.

WTI spot futures see support at yesterday's low at 56.99-57.01 and then at the major low from October at 56.35. Resistance comes in at 59.05-59.06.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 13.0 cents at $4.101
NG futures are making a fresh low for the recent selloff as an unsupportive weather outlook later in the month has driven selling. The selloff has come even in the face of bullish EIA storage data seen Thursday. The selloff has also been driven by a fall in the cash Henry Hub price, which was down Thursday $1 from the price seen last Friday.

Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted warmer across the southern and eastern US for December 16-20, and the outlook has trended warmer for most of the US for December 21-25.

The EIA data seen Thursday showed a draw of 177 BCF, beating all expectations. This was the best draw for the period seen in the past 6 years. Total gas inventories fell to 3.746 TCF. This is -28BCF/-0.74% versus last year, but still +103 BCF/+2.83% versus the 5 year average. Next week's number is seen as a draw of 159 to 180 BCF. Last year saw a draw of 134 BCF and the 5 year average is -96 BCF for next week's number. "Based on early projections for the next two reports, inventories are likely to fall into a deficit relative to the five-year average before the end of the month," as per one investor. But he adds : "However, the second half of the month is shaping up to be much warmer, which would significantly reduce the storage impact of subsequent weeks."

The Henry Hub (HH) cash next day natural gas fell Thursday midday to $4.150. That is down from a quote of $4.55 / $4.61 seen Wednesday mid-morning and a price seen last Friday of $5.175/$5.195. The HH next day cash fell Thursday to a discount of about 7 cents to the spot NG futures ---having flipped from the 6 cents premium cash had Tuesday over the spot NG futures.

The TTF spot futures have a double bottom from Wednesday/Thursday at 26.535/26.530 Euro/Mwh, equating to $9.11/MMBtu . As of December 9, gas storage in Europe was 72% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 81% full for this time of year. News reports see cargoes being diverted away from Europe. An LNG cargo originating from Qatar diverted from Belgium to India, according to a Bloomberg report. Egypt has diverted at least two LNG cargoes in early December, easing supply constraints in NWE, Platts said.

LSEG on Thursday lowered their gas demand forecast for this week and next by 0.9 BCF/d from those seen the day before. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 145.4 BCF/d this week to 143.8 BCF/d next week.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.7 BCF/d so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 BCF/d in November. US LNG feedgas demand is steady today at 18.58 BCF/d today compared to a record high of 19.13 BCF/d on Dec. 5. (Market News)

US gas output has also reached a fresh monthly high; LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.7 BCF/d so far in December, up from a monthly record high of 109.6 BCF/d in November. US domestic natural gas production was estimated at 113.37 BCF/d yesterday compared to the 30-day average over 112.44 BCF/d, according to BNEF.

Technically Thursday's settlement price saw NG spot futures having fallen by 20.0% from the high settlement seen last Friday. The NG January daily chart has a mean reversion setup from Thursday's settlement below the lower bollinger band. Support for the spot NG futures at 4.131-4.140 has been broken. Next best support seen lies at 4.070-4.073. Resistance comes in at the overnight high at 4.257-4.259. Momentum is negative for the NG.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC