Daily Energy Market Update December 11, 2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy prices are lower today after settling higher Wednesday upon news of the US seizing a tanker off the coast of Venezuela. The DOE data yesterday disappointed with a large build in gasoline supplies. Although the IEA today lowered their supply growth forecast while also raising their demand growth forecast, they still said that global oil inventories rose to 4 year highs in October. OPEC left their demand forecasts unchanged, while raising their Non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast. 

On Wednesday, the US was said to have seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. Bloomberg cites the tanker as being sanctioned. Venezuela exported more than 900 MBPD of oil last month, the third-highest monthly average so far this year, as state-run company PDVSA imported more naphtha to dilute its extra heavy oil output, as per Reuters reporting. “Chevron’s operations in Venezuela continue without disruption,” Chevron said in an emailed statement. (Market News)

The IEA today raised their 2026 oil demand growth forecast by 90 MBPD to +860 MBPD. Gasoil and jet/kerosene account for half of this year’s gains, with fuel oil losing ground to natural gas and solar in power generation. The IEA also raised their 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 40 MBPD to 830 MBPD. "Falling oil prices and the lower U.S. dollar, both currently near four-year lows, act as further tailwinds for oil demand next year," the IEA said. Global oil supply growth has been cut by 100 MBPD to 3.0 MMBPD for 2025 and by 20 MBPD for 2026 to 2.4 MMBPD, to 106.2 MMBPD and 108.6 MMBPD, respectively. "Global observed inventories rose to four-year highs in October, and preliminary data for November indicates a further increase of global stocks, largely due to higher non-OECD on-land crude." Yet, the IEA adds that "notably, global oil supply in November was down by 610 MBPD from October and by a whopping 1.5 MMBPD from September’s all-time high."  (iea.org/Investing.com)

OPEC's Monthly report left their 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts unchanged at +1.3 and +1.38 MMBPD, respectively. But, they raised their Non-OPEC+ supply growth estimate for 2025 by 40 MBPD to +960 MBPD. OPEC left their 2026 Non-OPEC+ oil supply growth unchanged at +630 MBPD. 

As expected on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve lowered the discount rate by 25 basis points in a split decision by the committee.  WSJ commentary read: " Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates at their third consecutive meeting but signaled little appetite for more amid unusual internal divisions over whether inflation or the job market should be their bigger worry. "

The DOE stats seen Wednesday showed a crude oil draw of 1.812 MMBBL, that we see having been largely a function of the EIA's crude oil accounting adjustment, which showed supplies falling by 607 MBPD. By contrast, the net crude imports rose by 212 MBPD, US crude production rose by 38 MBPD and crude inputs to refineries fell by 16 MBPD. Gasoline supplies rose by 6.397 MMBBL. This was well above the 2.0 to 2.8 MMBBL increase forecast. Distillate supplies rose by 2.502 MMBBL, even as demand on the week was strong. Distillate demand rose by 728 MBPD to a healthy figure of 4.158 MMBPD, beating the prior 2 years demand by 708 and 388 MBPD. The build in distillate inventories is largely due to the very strong production figure of 5.431 MMBPD, which was an increase of 380 MBPD on the week. Bloomberg reports that this week's distillate output was the 2nd most ever for the period and was the most seen since January of 2019. A noted oil analyst mentioned that Padd 2 / Midwest distillate supplies rose by 2.8 MMBBL and called that a "problem". Additionally, refinery utilization on the East Coast (Padd1) was at its highest level (95.1%) since January 2023.

The AAA is predicting that between December 20 and New Year's Day, a record 109.5 million travelers on the road will go more than 50 miles. That is an increase of 2.2% from last year. The AAA also sees air travel rising by 2.3% from 2024 with 8 million people flying in the holiday period. 

A forecast from IIR Energy analysts shows planned outages at US oil refineries in the spring turnaround season next year are expected to be the lowest since 2022. Crude distillation units outages are expected to total just below 660 MBPD from February to May, about 300 MBPD less than in the prior three years. EIA data indicate the forecast outages represent about 3.6% of the country’s maximum refining capacity. IIR data show the light spring maintenance season comes after a relatively heavy turnaround season from September to November 2025 that took an additional 166 MBPD of crude processing capacity offline compared with the same period in 2024. US refiners have been processing large amounts of crude in recent months, amid tight global fuel markets that have boosted margins as a smaller domestic industry has left the remaining plants to make up for lost capacity.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically, the spot HO futures have fallen to their lowest price in 7 weeks and RB spot futures made a slightly lower low today continuing their recent slide. WTI's momentum basis the DC chart is negative. Momentums for the RB & HO are neutral, with the RB remaining oversold.

At present the RB spot futures have a double bottom at 1.7632 / 1.7638 from yesterday/ today. Support below that is seen at 1.7531-1.7544. Below that next support lies at 1.7415-1.7430. Resistance above lies at 1.8012-1.8021 and then at 1.8115-1.8117. The RB DC chart shows the pattern in a downward channel still.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 16.5 cents at $4.430
NG futures are lower as the market has been consumed the past few days with a weaker late December weather pattern. This is the complete opposite of the concern for very cold air in December that led to a sharp rally last week in NG prices.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through December 25, reducing the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses. (Reuters)

Today's EIA gas storage data is seen as a draw of 166 to 173 BCF as per news wire surveys. This compares to last year's draw of 89 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 167 BCF. One colleague suggests that this strong draw is priced in the market already. 

On Wednesday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 145.3 BCF/d this week to 144.8 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were a total of 0.3 BCF/d more than seen Monday.

US domestic natural gas production was estimated at 113.1 BCF/d yesterday compared to the 30-day average over 112.4 BCF/d, according to BNEF.

NG/LN options trades from Wednesday's activity included the March April of 2027 CSO with the 50 cent put bought against selling of 2 of the 25 cent puts. The 50 cent put buyer collected 1.5 cents. The March April 2027 futures spread settled 38.7 cents. In the February March CSO, the 35 /25 cent put spread traded 5.0 cents. The February March futures spread settled 53.6 cents. The January February CSO 25/15 cent put spread traded 2.7 cents. The January February futures spread settled 35.3 cents. The March April 2026 CSO minus 5 cent put traded 2.7 and 2.8 cents. Additionally in the March April 2026 CSO, the $2.00 call traded 1.2 cents. The March April 2026 spread settled +6.4 cents. The January $4.25 put open interest rose by 4,894 contracts. In one trade, twice as many of the $4.25 puts were sold against buying of the $4.75 put for a cost of 14.3 cents to the higher strike put buyer, with .08 delta futures bought at $4.61.

Technically NG futures have negative momentum basis the DC chart. Support for the spot futures at 4.429-4.443 has been pierced this morning. Below this light support is seen at 4.385-4.390. Below that support is seen at 4.311-4.320. Resistance above comes in at 4.622-4.629, which was tested with the overnight high of 4.631.

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC