Daily Energy Market Update December 1, 2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as supply concerns have risen due to the halting of exports over the weekend at a major terminal along the Black Sea. Heightened US-Venezuelan tension has also raised supply concerns. Also supporting prices is OPEC+'s decision Sunday to keep output unchanged. Loadings at the terminal at te Russian port of Novorossiysk are said to have resumed.

Chevron said late on Sunday that loadings of its Tengizchevroil venture's crude oil were continuing at the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Loadings are still being hampered though. Russia's Kommersant daily, citing unnamed sources, said on Monday that oil loadings had resumed via the single point mooring 1, while SPM 2 was damaged.  Usually, two moorings are engaged in loadings. Energy Aspects said that the National Caspian Oil Consortium has reduced intake from producers by 40%, but they only have storage for 2.5 days, thus possibly leading to a curb in output. (Reuters)

Kazakhstan told Ukraine on Sunday to stop attacking the Black Sea terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which handles more than 1% of global oil. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) halted loading Saturday after one of its three moorings was damaged amid overnight Ukrainian attacks in the region. Ukraine also attacked a Russian refinery that has a total capacity of 180 MBPD. It was previously attacked in September. The refinery was targeted for its role in providing fuel to Russia’s army, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a Facebook post. Ukraine has also attacked two oil tankers tied to Russia's shadow fleet, which were heading to the export terminal at Novorossiysk. (Reuters/Bloomberg/Kyiv Independent)

On Saturday, President Trump said "the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela" should be considered closed, sparking fresh uncertainty in the oil market. President Trump confirmed on Sunday that he had spoken with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, but President Trump did not provide details on what the two leaders discussed. (Reuters) The United States has offered Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro the chance to leave his country for Russia or elsewhere, a Republican senator said Sunday, amid heightened fears of imminent US military action.

OPEC+, as expected, kept their output unchanged at Sunday's meeting. OPEC+ is seen pausing further supply increases amid concerns about a potential glut. The group will review the maximum sustainable production capacity of members, which will serve as a reference for 2027 production baselines. This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines. (ING/Oil Price)

In the wake of the OPEC+ decision, a Reuters analyst offered some insights into the crude oil market. There is the reality that Western sanctions are starting to tighten parts of the global crude and product markets. The Reuters analyst adds that much of the expected glut of crude is from sanctioned exporters Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Much of this oil is currently likely being stored on vessels at sea; this means that while the crude oil may be physically present, it’s not necessarily available to be purchased and refined, he adds. There is some hope that China’s release of additional crude import quotas last week will allow for some Iranian and Russian cargoes to go to China. There are expectations among product traders in Asia that China will lift fuel exports in December as many of the refiners have unused product quotas, but it still remains to be seen how many additional shipments of fuels such as diesel and gasoline will be offered to the market, as per Reuters commentary.

Also possibly supportive for energy prices is the rise in the November Official Chinese PMI from October's rate. November's PMI rose to 49.2 from October's rate of 49.0. A Bloomberg survey was calling for a November reading of 49.4. The private agency RatingDog said that November PMI fell to 49.9 from October's reading of 50.6. A reading of 50.5 was forecast, as per CNBC reporting. China’s exports in October unexpectedly contracted for the first time in nearly two years, dropping 1.1% year on year, as businesses’ front-loading momentum tapered off. One Chinese economist says that China's 4th quarter GDP will fall to +4.5% form the third quarter rate of 4.8%.
 
U.S. oil production rose to a record high in September, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Friday showed, despite oversupply worries. U.S. crude oil output rose 44,000 barrels per day during the month to a record 13.84 MMBPD, according to EIA data.

The national retail gasoline price in the U.S. has fallen today to $3.001, as per AAA data. GasBuddy says the national average price of gas has dropped below $3.00 a gallon for the first time since May 2021 — and noted that prices fell in all 50 states over the last week. GasBuddy analysis says that gasoline prices have been pressured by lower seasonal demand, falling oil prices, and rising OPEC output. (Newsmax.com)

ING reports that speculators cut their net long in ICE Brent by 57,430 lots over the last reporting week to 120,934 lots. They say that the reduction in length was mostly a function of new shorts being added. Speculators also cut their net long in ICE gasoil for the first time since late October, reducing positions by 20,043 lots to a net long of 82,152 lots. Speculative selling in both crude and gasoil is likely driven by Russia-Ukraine peace plan talks, ING commented.

Energy Market Technicals

WTI has positive momentum basis the DC chart, while the DC chart momentum for HO is oversold. RB DC chart based momentum is neutral.

WTI spot futures have resistance at 60.46-60.51. Support lies at 58.27-58.30 and then at 57.66-57.68.
 

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 0.4 cents at $4.846
NG spot futures are lower now after having traded both higher and lower in today's session. We suspect that the market retreated overnight due to some profit taking after rising to a nearly 3 year high on a settlement basis Friday. Additionally, the weather forecast although cold in the near term is seen moderating in the second half of the 15 day period. Also, subdued prices in Asia and weaker pricing in Europe likely weighed on NG pricing.

NG futures have risen today to their best value since March 10th as weather demand in the next week was seen high, according to NatGasWeather. But, they see moderate demand in days 7 through 15. Chicago is expected to remain cold this week, but shift back toward normal temps next week. Celsius Energy adds that their GWDD calculations are calling for the period from Saturday Nov. 29 to this Friday Dec. 5 to show the most GWDD's in the past 6 years.

LNG feedgas volume continues to stay strong. Market News puts today's volume at what they say is a record at 18.94 BCF/d. Meanwhile, Bloomberg data shows today's U.S. gas production is running at 113.96 BCF/d, compared to the 30 day average of 111.7 BCF/d.

The TTF market in Europe has gapped lower over the weekend and has fallen to its lowest spot futures value since April 11, 2024. Prices have been pressured by warmer weather forecasts, in addition to high LNG imports and steady Norwegian gas supply.  (Trading Economics/Investing.com) Today's TTF low price is Euro 27.75, which equates to $9.46/MMBtu. Technically, the contract continues to test the contract's lower bollinger band, as it has for the past week or more. Momentum is getting near oversold. One analyst, cited in Hellenic Shipping News commentary, says that hedge funds have "slipped" into a net short position in TTF futures last week for the first time since March of 2024. Reuters says that global LNG freight rates in the Atlantic have risen to their highest level year to date.

 Asian LNG prices have fallen to an 8 week low on high inventories and "continued muted demand". The price for January deliveries into North East Asia have fallen to $10.90/MMBTU, from $11.66 last week. Weather has not been cold enough in the region to generate fresh buying. (Hellenic Shipping News) Pacific LNG freight rates are said to have risen to their highest level since December 2023 as per one analyst cited by Reuters.

On Friday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, at 140.6 BCF/d this week. This forecast was up 0.5 BCF/d from that seen Wednesday. Next week's demand is seen falling to 136.5 BCF/d.

U.S. gross natural gas production from the Lower 48 states in September fell to 122.17 BCF/d down slightly (-0.63 BCF/d) from August’s all-time high of 122.8 BCF/d, according to the EIA’s 914 production report released on Friday.

Early estimates seen for this week's EIA gas storage number are calling for a draw of 17.8 to 20 BCF. These compare to last year's draw of 26 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 43 BCF. The following 2 weeks data look to be setting up to reduce the surplus to the 5 year average by a considerable amount. 

Technically NG has a few elements that we see cautioning the bulls: (1) there is now a double top from the prior session and today at 4.871-4.884  (2) there is a mean reversion setup from Friday's settlement over the DC chart's upper bollinger band and (3) the weekly chart's momentum is overbought. 

The DC chart upper bollinger band lies at 4.774. Resistance above comes in at 4.901 from the January daily chart high of mid-November. Above that resistance is seen at 4.942-4.951 and then at 4.990-4.994. Support lies at 4.750-4.756, which was almost tested with the overnight low of 4.758. Below that support comes in at 4.674-4.681. Momentum basis the DC chart remains positive. 

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC