Daily Energy Market Update February 12, 2026

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil prices are lower now after trading higher overnight. The fall back is mostly attributed to the IEA's monthly oil report that continues to stress the fact that there is a large supply / demand imbalance. Prior, overnight prices were supported by the continued concern over US/Iran tension and by the strong NFP data seen yesterday--even as yesterday's DOE data showed a large crude oil build.

The IEA, in today's monthly report, lowered its estimates for this year's growth to 850 MBPD from 930 MBPD previously, as economic uncertainties and higher oil prices weigh on consumption. That compares with demand growth of 770 MBPD last year. The IEA also lowered their supply growth forecast for this year, as a result of the disruptions seen in January due to  the freeze-offs in the US & Canada and the export constraints that curtailed flows from Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela.  Non-OPEC+ production in January declined by 1.1 MMBPD. The IEA sees supply growth in 2026 at +2.4 MMBPD, down 100 MBPD from their last forecast. Last year saw supply growth of 3.1 MMBPD. In 2026, the total global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.73 MMBPD, compared to 3.69 MMBPD in the previous report. (WSJ/bitget.com)

With regard to issues in export loadings out of Kazakhstan, ING offers the following report :"Reports suggest that February loadings are expected to come in between 1.15-1.25m b/d, up from 907k b/d in January, but lower than originally expected as production from the Tengiz field recovers gradually. Meanwhile, March loadings are expected to be somewhere between 1.55-1.65m b/d. A recovery in exports from the CPC terminal should help ease some of the tightness we have seen in the oil market so far this year."

The DOE oil data issued Wednesday showed a large build in crude supplies of 8.53 MMBPD. The crude oil build is due to the increase in net crude imports and the rise in US oil production. The net crude imports rose by 912 MBPD ( to 3.066 MMBPD) --as crude imports rose by 604 MBPD and crude exports fell by 308 MBPD. US crude oil production rose on the week by 498 MBPD to a total 13.713 MMBPD. Product demand rose on the week. Distillate demand rose by 139 MBPD to a strong figure of 4.449 MMBPD ---which is much greater than seen the prior 2 years. This week's distillate demand beat last year's by 764 MBPD and 2024's by 935 MBPD. Gasoline demand rose on the week by 147 MBPD to 8.300 MMBPD, lagging last year by 276 MBPD but above 2024 demand by 132 MBPD.

On the supply side, Russia's seaborne oil products exports in January rose by 0.7% from December to 9.12 million metric tons (=66.85 MMBBL or 2.16 MMBPD) on high fuel output and a seasonal drop in domestic demand, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed.

Beyond the U.S., focus in the coming days will be on Chinese travel trends during the Lunar New Year holidays, which begin in the coming week. The holiday is usually marked by outsized demand for travel in the country, and portends an increase in fuel consumption. (Investing.com)

The US national retail gasoline price has risen further today to its best price since December 9th. Today's price rose by 0.7 cents from yesterday to $2.944. One month ago, the price was $2.796.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically the crude oils still have positive momentum basis the DC charts. ULSD momentum remains negative, although the DC chart pattern still has a sideways look. April RB momentum is turning neutral, although some resistance may have formed over the past few sessions.

WTI spot futures see support at 63.64-63.65. Resistance comes in at yesterday's high at 65.83. Above that the DC chart double top at 66.42-66.48 is resistance.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 11.5 cents at $3.274
NG spot futures are up today, rising into the gap created over the weekend. Prices are being supported by the expectation for a strong draw from gas storage today and by US natural gas  production not returning to pre-storm levels. Strong LNG feedgas demand is likely also supportive.

Today's EIA storage data is seen as a draw of 258 to 264 BCF, as per news wire surveys. This compares to last year's draw of 111 BCF and the 5 year average draw of 146 BCF. The prospect though for the coming weeks data into the end of the month look to be for the deficit to the 5 year average to be reduced. As NGI reports:" Withdrawal pace likely to slow in coming weeks."

Celsius Energy said Wednesday that US natural gas production was 107.4 BCF/d, up "just" 2.0 BCF/d versus a year ago.  Since the storm seen in late January, the production increase versus one year ago has remained well below the increase seen during November and December, when the year over year increase was near or greater than 5.0 BCF/d.

NGI commentary re feed gas demand reads as follows:" Feed gas nominations to U.S. LNG terminals have reportedly swung back with a vengeance, according to pipeline data, indicating exporters could be looking to make up for lost time during the winter storm. Wood Mackenzie estimated nominations could reach 19.3 BCF/d Wednesday and average 18.7 BCF/d in the coming seven days. The firm noted the persistent rise over the past few days “has been driven by the largest feedgas nominations we have ever seen” at East Coast terminals, but cautioned that those numbers could be revised in a later cycle."

On Wednesday, the next day Henry Hub cash gas price managed to regain some value versus the spot March NG futures. The cash premium was seen at about 9 cents mid-morning, up from the flat price differential seen Monday.

In the LN/NG options traded on the CME Wednesday, most prominent to us were trades in the March, May and October months. 7,000 contracts of the March $4/$5 call spread traded 2.7 cents with 0.09 delta March futures sales at $3.16. The March $4 strike saw the position being opened, while the $5.00 call position was being closed. Further in the March options, the $3.50/$3.75 call spread traded with the $2.75 put being also sold at a net cost of 0.6 cents with 0.2 delta March futures sales at $3.16. In the May options, in an opening of the position, the $4.00 call traded 9.0 cents with 0.18 delta May futures sales at $3.09. In the October options, the $3.00/$2.25 put spread traded 17.5 cents with additional sales of the $5.00 call at 15.5 cents for a net cost of 2.0 cents.  

Technically, the NG futures have a double bottom from the prior 2 sessions at 3.055/3.061. We see support above that possible at 3.147-3.155. Resistance lies at 3.326-3.328 and then at the filling of the gap from the weekend up at 3.387.

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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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