- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update August 8,2025
WTI is up 28 cents RB is up 0.80 cents ULSD is up 2.51 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energy prices are higher now, although RB and crude oil fell to multi week lows overnight. The move lower was seen due to less concerns of supply disruptions as Presidents Trump and Putin are said to be meeting in the coming days. Tariffs to be imposed by the U.S., notably against India and possibly even China are also seen weighing on prices. Also adding to the negative overtone for oil are weak U.S. labor market data and the OPEC+ supply increase planned for September.
Reports in the past 24 hours have Presidents Trump and Putin meeting in the coming days. The potential meeting raises expectations of a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine, which could lead to eased sanctions on Russia, with Russian stocks rallying after the news. One analyst said:" "The Russian leader is expected to insist on having his territorial demands granted, a hard sell for the invaded country, while his U.S. counterpart will push for a ceasefire." (Reuters)
Higher U.S. tariffs against a host of trade partners went into effect on Thursday, raising concern over economic activity and demand for crude oil, ANZ Bank analysts said in a note. President Trump this week threatened to increase tariffs on India if it kept buying Russian oil, which the market viewed as putting further pressure on Russia to reach a deal with the U.S. Trump also said China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, could be hit with tariffs similar to those levied against Indian imports. (Reuters)
There are media reports that Indian state refiners are taking a step back from buying Russian crude oil amid the tariff uncertainty. Refiners are waiting for some guidance from the government before resuming their purchases. ING adds the following analysis to the possible Indian tariffs: " Indian exports to the U.S. dwarf the savings that India receives from buying discounted Russian crude oil. Therefore, we believe that India will likely switch to alternative crude supply in order to avoid these additional tariffs. This should lead to increased demand for other grades from the Middle East, continuing to provide support to Dubai relative to Brent."
On Thursday, ConocoPhillips CEO indicated that a sustained oil price around $70 per barrel is needed for the company to thrive and for U.S. shale production to continue growing. According to Bloomberg, and other reports, he believes this price point allows for both profitability and investment in future production. He also mentioned that prices in the $60s could lead to a plateau in shale production, while prices in the $50s might result in a decline.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021 at the end of July. Economists see an increase in continuing claims as a sign that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs. (Yahoo Finance) This news comes nearly a week after the release of the disappointing new jobs data showing the U.S. labor market slowing.
Energy Market Technicals
Technically, the distiillates look the best as they have several lows in a tight range from this week, thus seemingly setting up a floor as momentum for the distillates turns positive from an oversold condition. The RB & crude oils have momentum that is still negative basis the DC charts, although it is getting near oversold. Brent oil settled lower Thursday for the 6th straight session, which is the longest such streak since May, as per Bloomberg reporting.
WTI spot futures have support at 62.45-62.50. The overnight low today is above that at 63.19. The DC chart lower bollinger band lies near $63. Resistance comes in at 66.39-66.45.
RB spot futures saw major support at 2.0585-2.0590 tested overnight with a low of 2.0588. Resistance lies at 2.1057-2.1067 and then at 2.1257-2.1261.
ULSD spot futures have support at 2.2458-2.2472, where 3 of the past 4 sessions' lows are seen. Resistance comes in at 2.3207-2.3221.
The September Gasoil contract has the past 4 lows at 657.00 to 659.50. Below that area next support s seen at 650.25-650.50. Resistance lies at the recent highs bunched at 681.50-682.50.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 2.0 cents
NG futures are lower, stuck in the recent range as prices are being buffeted by the opposing forces of strong gas production versus recent and upcoming weather demand and stronger recent feedgas volumes to LNG plants.
Thursday's pullback off the highs after the bullish EIA data may have been a function of a few things: 1) the contract hit resistance at 3.140-3.145--the high was 3.148 (2) next day Henry Hub cash prices were below 3.100, with a trade near 3.05 seen midday. Thus given the flat differential seen between HH cash and the spot NG futures recently, the September futures fell back to the 3.05 area. (3) the index fund roll started Thursday, which may have put some pressure on September futures, as funds sell out of the September contract and roll length forward to November. (4) some profit taking may have occurred as the contract rose Thursday to a high 25 cents above Monday's low. (5) cooler forecasts for later in August were seen.
Thursday's EIA storage number showed a build of 7 BCF, which was 6 to 11 BCF better than forecast. Total storage stood at 3.130 TCF, which is -137 BCF/-4.19 % versus last year and +173 BCF/+5.85 % versus the 5 year average. A Reuters survey of analysts seen Thursday is saying that U.S. natural gas storage is on track to end the April-October summer injection season at a two-year low of 3.830 TCF. This is less than the data we shared yesterday that saw estimates for end of season inventories between 3.905 and 3.930 TCF.
Forecaster Vaisala said Thursday that the Global Forecast System weather model shifted cooler for the eastern half of the US for August 17-21.
Total feedgas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals are today estimated down at 15.53 BCF/d after rising to 16.34 BCF/d on Aug. 6 and just below record levels seen in April, Bloomberg shows.
But, overall average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 0.9 BCF/d on the week to 16.3 BCF/d, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Technically, momentum remains positive for the NG futures basis the DC chart. Resistance for the spot futures comes in at 3.140-3.148. Support lies at 2.945-2.955 and then at this week's low at 2.895.
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply