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- Daily Energy Market Update August 6,2025
WTI is up 84 cents RB is up 2.43 cents ULSD is up 4.60 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are higher as President Trump on Tuesday reiterated his threat of higher tariffs against India for buying Russian oil. A larger than expected crude draw in the API data is also supportive.
President Trump's deadline for a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict is Friday. President Putin is said to be possibly offering some concessions in the conflict, such as an air truce, so as to avoid some sanctions by the U.S. Today a U.S. Special Envoy is meeting with Putin in Moscow.
Trump vowed in an interview with CNBC to “substantially” raise tariffs on India “over the next 24 hours” because it’s still buying Russian oil. It’s not clear what the new tariff rate would be – or why he is now taking issue with something India has done for years. But the fresh threat comes after he had already announced a minimum 25% tariff on goods coming from India last week. (CNN) In a statement Monday, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said the purchase of Russian oil is a “necessity” to “ensure predictable and affordable energy costs” and was once “encouraged” by the U.S. “for strengthening global energy markets stability.” (The Hill) Trump suggested on Tuesday that other countries – including China - may face increased tariffs if they continue buying Russian energy.
API Forecast Actual
Crude Oil -0.6/+0.1 -4.2
Gasoline -1.1 -0.9
Distillate +0.6 +1.6
Cushing n/av +1.7
Runs -0.1% n/av
Energy Market Technicals
Momentum remains negative for the energies basis the DC charts, but there are double bottoms on the ULSD & WTI charts from yesterday/today.
The spot WTI futures double bottom lies at 65.03-65.11, having thus tested our support at 65.00-65.05. Below that support is seen at 64.50-64.51. There is also a double top currently from yesterday/today at 66.34-66.39. We see resistance above that at 67.13-67.14 and then at 67.74-67.76.
The ULSD spot futures double bottom comes in at 2.2440-2.2447, now thus providing support. Resistance is seen at 2.3375-2.3385.
RB September futures see support at 2.0823-2.0826 and then at 2.0585-2.0590. Resistance lies just above the overnight high at 2.1260-2.1261 and then at 2.1513-2.1515.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--NG is down 4.2 cents
NG spot futures have slipped back below $3.00 as supply concerns are overwhelming a return of some hotter weather in mid-August.
Tuesday's rally in NG was seen due to a hotter forecast. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Tuesday that forecasts shifted warmer for much of the U.S. for August 10-14 and shifted warmer over the eastern two-thirds of the country for August 15-19.
LSEG says that August NG production has averaged 108.0 BCF/d, eclipsing the record of 107.9 BCF/d seen last month. The recent rise in the gas rig count has the market believing that production will stay strong.
Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG terminals averaged 15.41 BCF/d in the seven days to Aug. 6, compared to the prior seven day average of 14.59 BCF/d. (Market News) Today's LNG feedgas volume is said to be 16.05 BCF/d, as per Bloomberg data.
TTF European gas prices are lower today as significant progress has been seen in building gas reserves ahead of peak demand periods, as per investing.com commentary. According to the latest data from the Gas Infrastructure Group, storage injections increased last week by the largest amount since June. European gas storage is up to 69.96% full on Aug. 3 compared to the previous five-year average of 77.8% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. But, Investing's commentary adds that "despite the positive storage situation, market participants remain cautious about potential disruptions to Russian gas supplies." For now, the continent is receiving steady flows, with pipeline shipments from top supplier Norway near maximum capacity ahead of seasonal maintenance later this month, Bloomberg reports. Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today estimated at the highest since November, as per Market News. Bloomberg mentions that gas prices in Europe have been in a range for 5 weeks. They say that July saw the narrowest price range for any month so far this year.
In the Asian realm, spot LNG prices inched up after two weeks of declines as geopolitical risk factors including U.S. threats of sanctions Russian energy lent support. Bloomberg reporting this week suggests that U.S. LNG cargoes scheduled to depart from August to December 2025 may theoretically earn more profit by heading to Asia than Europe. Yet, Mainland China’s demand is expected to fall 12% year on year in August as domestic production and pipeline imports expand, and demand growth remains weak. (Market News) Japanese LNG demand could fall by 22% in the next five years on a nuclear restart which could put 27 plants in service by 2030, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. But. for now, Japan's LNG demand is likely to increase as temperatures rise due to an ongoing heatwave. AInvest reports that the Japan Meteorological Agency predicts a prolonged heatwave through August, exceeding historical averages.
Technically NG spot futures have neutral momentum as today's price range is within that seen yesterday, which was within the range seen Monday. The market thus seems to signal indecision as it waffles around $3.00. As one technical analyst writes: "While a rise above Monday’s high of $3.08 will show strength, it is not enough to indicate that the advance might be sustainable. " Our first resistance lies at 3.074-3.078. Support is seen at the low of last week at 2.895 and then at 2.858-2.859.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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