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- Daily Energy Market Update August 4, 2026
Energy markets remain highly volatile as traders continue to react to shifting headlines surrounding U.S.-Iran diplomacy. After rallying overnight, crude oil reversed sharply lower following reports that Qatar is circulating draft language for a potential short-term agreement between the U.S. and Iran aimed at easing tensions and improving shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
While no direct talks between Washington and Tehran are currently planned, comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that a deal could come "today or tomorrow" added to expectations that diplomatic progress may continue. The prospect of improved tanker traffic through Hormuz prompted another round of profit-taking as traders reduced geopolitical risk premiums that had been supporting crude prices.
Despite the market's optimism, the situation remains fluid. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still well below normal, and another commercial vessel reported being struck by an unknown projectile near the waterway on Monday, underscoring that security risks remain elevated. At the same time, ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continue to pose a longer-term supply risk, even as those concerns remain secondary to developments in the Middle East.
Going forward, the market will remain headline-driven, with traders focused on any confirmation of a U.S.-Iran agreement, changes in shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, and Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and broader risk sentiment.
Crude (Cont. Contract)
Crude oil is down 2.44 at 77.90.
Price remains below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are both clustered near $81.40. Although crude briefly pushed above those overlapping moving averages overnight, it failed to hold and has since slipped back below them.
Momentum continues to trend lower but is approaching neutral territory. With momentum approaching neutral and price trading well below the 20-day moving average, the technical picture is becoming more balanced after last week's sharp decline. At this point, the indicators do not provide a clear guide for the next directional move, making a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support the likely catalyst for the next trend.
Key Levels
Resistance
81.40 – 20-day and 50-day moving averages
87.68 – Gap from last week
90.11 – 100-day moving average
Support
77.78 – Last week's low
76.29 – 200-day moving average
71.08 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Heating oil is trading lower overnight at 3.7704.
Yesterday marked the first daily close below the 20-day moving average since July 2. Overnight price action retested the 20-day moving average but has since reversed lower and is now trading near the session low.
Momentum remains in overbought territory, suggesting the current pullback has room to continue before momentum resets to more neutral levels. As long as price remains below the 20-day moving average, the near-term technical bias favors additional downside.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.9219 – 20-day moving average
4.2888 – Highest high since the June low
4.3508 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
3.6339 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (June low to July high)
3.5568 – 50-day moving average
3.4793 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Heating Oil (HOU6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is down .42 at 5.40.
Yesterday marked the first daily close below the 20-day moving average since the beginning of July. Selling pressure has continued this morning, pushing the spread below the 5.54 support level, which represents both the 50-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement (July low to July high). A close below this area would increase the likelihood of a move toward the next support level near 4.51.
Momentum is beginning to move out of overbought territory and continues to point lower, suggesting there is still room for the current decline to extend before momentum reaches neutral levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
6.36 – 20-day moving average
8.14 – High from last week
9.74 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
5.54 – 50-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement (July low to July high)
4.51 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
2.98 – 200-day moving average and lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGU26)
Natural Gas is down 0.074 this morning, trading at 2.707.
Today marks the fifth consecutive session of range-bound trading following last week's breakdown. Price has been consolidating after breaking below the two-week trading range following last week's sharp move lower.
Momentum has crossed back higher, reflecting the recent consolidation rather than a change in trend. With price continuing to trade sideways, the market appears to be waiting for the next directional catalyst.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.799 – Bottom of the previous trading range that was broken last week
2.845 – 20-day moving average
3.040 – Upper Bollinger Band and 100-day moving average
Support
2.666 – Last week's low
2.649 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGU26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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