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- Daily Energy Market Update August 29,2025
WTI is down 24 cents October RB is down 0.74 cents October ULSD is down 1.55 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energy prices are lower today, although they are poised for a weekly gain news wire accounts point out. Sideways price action remains the picture painted by the charts. Energy prices are said to be lower today due to demand concerns raised by tariffs and the end of the US driving season. Also supply concerns due to OPEC+ raising production have been cited in news wire commentaries.
On Thursday, oil prices rallied after the German Chancellor Merz said it’s unlikely that Presidents Zelensky and Putin will meet, providing a blow to hopes for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. (ING)
Indian refiners boosted U.S. crude oil purchases this month, drawn by competitive prices, trade sources said, a move that could help narrow the country’s trade deficit with the United States amid tensions between the two nations. The country’s top refiner, Indian Oil Corp, has bought 5 million barrels of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in October and November via a tender, trade sources said. This came after another state refiner Bharat Petroleum Corp purchased 2 million barrels of U.S. WTI crude while private refiner Reliance Industries has bought 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Vitol, other sources said. Indian refiners, along with others in Asia, stepped up purchases after the arbitrage window for U.S. crude to Asia opened. (Reuters)
A Reuters survey is forecasting that the Saudi OSP for October loadings to Asian clients may be reduced by 40 to 70 cents.
Insights Global data shows that gasoil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region increased by 53kt WoW to 2.09mt, the fourth consecutive week of increases. Inventories have now increased by more than 20%. This takes gasoil inventories in the ARA region close to the 5-year average, which should help ease concerns over middle distillate tightness. However, gasoline inventories fell by 54kt WoW to 991kt, extending a trend we’ve seen for much of the year. European gasoline demand in some key markets has been fairly robust for much of this year, contributing to lower stocks. Tighter gasoline stocks are providing some late-season strength to gasoline cracks in NW Europe. (ING)
A Reuters survey of 31 economists and analysts for oil prices for 2025 was little changed from those seen last month. Brent for 2025 is seen averaging $67.65, down from July's forecast of $67.84. WTI is seen averaging $64.65 this year. This is up 4 cents from last month's forecast. But a WSJ survey for 4th quarter crude prices saw forecasts lowered versus those seen last month. A survey compiled by WSJ showed Brent crude is expected to average $63.57 a barrel in the fourth quarter, while West Texas Intermediate is seen at $60.30 a barrel. That is down from last month's projections of $64.13 and $61.11, respectively.
German unemployment has risen to its highest level in more than 10 years, data seen today showed. The number of unemployed people has increased above the three-million mark for the first time since 2015. (ING)
Exxon Mobil, in its annual outlook issued Thursday, predicts that global oil demand will plateau after 2030 but remain above 100 MMBPD through 2050, consistent with its previous outlook. Even as overall crude oil demand is expected to remain stable, Exxon forecasts that longer-term demand for gasoline will shrink 25% as electric vehicles proliferate, while demand for distillates will remain strong for commercial transportation and aviation. Oil and natural gas will account for 55% of the global energy mix in 25 years' time, down 1 percentage point from 2024 levels, the company said.
Today is the last trading day for the September RB & ULSD and October Brent futures.
The CME will have shortened trading hours Monday for the U.S. Labor day holiday. The energy trading platform will open Sunday evening 8/31 at the usual 6 PM (EDT) hour. The market will close on Monday from 2:30 to 6 PM (EDT). Then the market will remain open from 6 PM Monday evening until Tuesday at 5 PM (EDT). All trades will be for settlement Tuesday Sept. 2.
Energy Market Technicals
WTI DC chart based momentum is positive, while that for the October RB & ULSD is negative.
WTI spot futures see support at 63.02-63.06 and then at 62.17-62.19. Resistance comes in at 65.09-65.11 and then at 65.98-66.03.
October RB support is seen at 1.9565-1.9580 and then at 1.9383-1.9394. Resistance comes in at 1.9959-1.9979 and then at 2.0097-2.0117.
ULSD October futures see support at 2.2644-2.2661 and resistance at 2.3264-2.3285.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas-- NG is up 3.4 cents
NG futures are higher this morning continuing the rally seen the past few sessions, but some skepticism for a further rally is noted given that the next few weeks will see a "bearish" weather outlook. Yet, the bullish EIA storage number seen Thursday suggests an overall tightening of the gas supply/demand picture.
The EIA number showed a build of 18 BCF in Thursday's data. This was 6 to 10 BCF below forecasts. For a second straight week, the EIA number was the single smallest injection for the week in the last 5 years. The bullish number helped NG futures rally quite a bit. The bullish number was helped by weak renewables, as per NGI commentary. Total storage rose to 3.217 TCF. This leaves storage -112 BCF/-3.36% versus last year's level, but +154 BCF/+5.03% versus the 5 year average. A comment seen describes how the South Central region's data suggests a tightening of NG storage. The South Central region has seen salt storage facilities withdraw 29 BCF in the past 2 weeks EIA data, signaling regional supply constraints. Dry gas output from the Haynesville and Permian basins has plateaued, the commentator adds. Those 2 basins lie within the South Central region. Also worth mentioning is that the South Central region is home to most of the LNG export plants.
Celsius Energy points out that feedgas demand for LNG export has been near 16 BCF/d of late. This is + 4.8 BCF/d versus the year ago level as last year saw a drop off at this time. Celsius adds that this 4.8 BCF/d higher demand is thus canceling out the production gain seen during the past year.
Mexico’s imports of U.S. pipeline natural gas have continued to reach new heights this month, averaging slightly under 8 BCF/d through Thursday (Aug. 28), according to NGI data. During the first quarter of 2025 the exports ran under 7 BCF/d.
LSEG lowered their cooling degree day (CDD) forecast for the next 2 weeks on Thursday. They estimate a level of 128 CDD's over the next 2 weeks. On Wednesday they had forecasted 155 CDD's for the next 2 weeks. The nor for the 2 week period is 130 CDD's.
Global demand for natural gas will rise more than 20% by 2050 from last year's level, as it displaces coal to power industries and meet higher electricity use in developing countries, Exxon Mobil said on Aug. 28 in an annual outlook.
The Asian LNG spot market saw record-high trading activity during the Platts Market on Close assessment process. Market sources saying the surge reflected rising liquidity and growing commoditization of LNG trading. Many market participants pointed to the standardization of LNG cargoes -- with more uniform sizes, quality and contract terms -- as a key driver of the increased activity, as it has greatly improved traders' ability to optimize positions and manage risks. Many market participants pointed to the standardization of LNG cargoes -- with more uniform sizes, quality and contract terms -- as a key driver of the increased activity, as it has greatly improved traders' ability to optimize positions and manage risks. (Platts)
Technically NG has positive momentum basis the DC chart as the spot futures prices are now up over 13% from the $2.622 low seen Monday when September was the spot futures. Above the double top from yesterday/today at 2.996/2.999, next resistance is seen at 3.074-3.078. Support below is seen at 2.878-2.882 via the October 60 minute chart.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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