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- Daily Energy Market Update August 28, 2026
Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC, adding another question mark around the cohesion of the producer group. The immediate impact on physical oil balances would likely be limited, as Venezuela’s production has fallen significantly and the country is already not constrained by meaningful OPEC production limits. For traders, the bigger takeaway is what an exit would say about OPEC’s ability to maintain discipline as members increasingly prioritize production and market share.
The more important Venezuela story is the potential for greater US and international involvement in rebuilding the country’s oil industry. Increased investment could support a gradual recovery in production over the coming years, creating an additional source of supply for the global market. That is a medium-term consideration rather than an immediate bearish catalyst, with the pace of any recovery dependent on investment, infrastructure and operational execution.
In the Middle East, crude flows through the Gulf are continuing to recover from their recent lows as producers and shippers adapt to the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The improvement in physical flows is helping ease some of the immediate supply pressure on crude, although the situation remains fluid. Refined products and LNG continue to appear more exposed to the disruption, keeping upside risks elevated across those markets even as crude prices have become less responsive to the headline risk.
Overall, the crude market remains caught between improving physical supply and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The recovery in Gulf flows is a bearish development for crude if it continues, while Venezuela represents a potential source of additional supply over the medium term rather than an immediate shift in balances. The key for traders is whether physical markets continue to normalize and the geopolitical premium fades, or whether renewed disruption around Hormuz forces risk back into crude and particularly into products.
Crude (CL1)
Crude is near unchanged at $89.85, with price action muted overnight. The overnight range was less than half of the average daily range seen this week, while price is also trading inside the prior session’s range. WTI remains contained between the 20-day moving average at $87.98 and the 100-day moving average at $91.63, leaving those levels as the key boundaries for the near-term setup.
While price remains stuck within that range, momentum has moved into overbought territory and has recently crossed over and turned lower. That suggests upside momentum is fading and could be an early indication that the next move may be lower. A move back above the 100-day average, however, would weaken the bearish setup and put last week’s high back in focus.
Key Levels
Resistance
91.63 — 100-day moving average
94.83 — Last week's high
96.32 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
87.98 — 20-day moving average
84.26 — 50-day moving average
83.38 — 200-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil is trading higher at 4.1986 heading into the US open, although price action remains relatively muted compared with the rest of the week. The range is small, and price is trading just above the highs from the past two sessions. Heating oil continues to hold above the 20-day moving average at 4.0994, which remains the key near-term pivot and should provide support if prices pull back.
Momentum remains in overbought territory but has crossed over and is pointing lower, suggesting upside momentum is beginning to fade. This could limit further gains in the near term until momentum has a chance to normalize. A sustained move above the recent highs would keep the upside structure intact, while a break below the 20-day moving average would signal a potential shift lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.4400 — Last week's high
4.5369 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.0993 — 20-day moving average
3.7435 — 50-day moving average
3.6618 — Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is marginally lower heading into the US open, down 0.15 at 9.48. Price action remains muted, with the range less than half of the average daily range this week and trading within yesterday’s range.
Momentum remains overbought and is pointing lower, suggesting upside momentum is losing strength. This puts the 20-day moving average at 8.06 in focus as the next key support level, particularly as price has held above this level for the past three weeks. A break below the 20-day moving average would signal a potential shift in the near-term trend, while continued support there would keep the broader upside structure intact.
Key Levels
Resistance
10.84 — Last week's high (Double top)
11.68 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
8.06 — 20-day moving average
6.54 — 100-day moving average
6.16 — 50-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural gas is down 0.070 at 2.843 heading into the US open. Yesterday, price initially appeared to be breaking out to the upside after trading through the 50-day moving average at 2.929 for the first time since early July. However, the breakout failed, with price reversing and closing back below both the 50-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The failed breakout puts the near-term upside move into question and makes this pullback important to watch.
The key area is 2.793–2.801, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the August 7 low to yesterday’s high, as well as the 20-day moving average. If this zone holds, the pullback would remain constructive and could set up another attempt at the upside. A sustained move back above the 50-day moving average would strengthen the bullish setup and signal that yesterday’s failed breakout was only temporary.
A close below the 2.793–2.801 zone would weaken the setup and increase the risk of a deeper pullback, with the August low becoming the next major downside reference. Momentum is currently neutral, so there is no strong directional signal from momentum at this point and price action around the 20-day moving average will likely be the key near-term tell.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.916 — Upper Bollinger Band
2.929 — 50-day moving average
3.065 — 100-day moving average
Support
2.801 — 20-day moving average
2.793 — 61.8% Fib
2.687 — Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGV26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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