Daily Energy Market Update August 27,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil prices have traded either side of unchanged, rallying early on in the overnight session on the back of overall supportive API data, but also being held back by the fact that today the U.S. is raising tariffs on India.
 
API                Forecast         Actual
Crude Oil     -1.38/-1.9      -0.974
Gasoline      -1.51/-2.6      -2.060
Distillate     +0.59/+1.3     -1.488
Cushing          n/av             -0.497
Runs            -0.3/-0.5%        n/av


India’s state refiners are expected to buy 1.4-1.6 MMBPD of Russian oil for October loading and beyond compared to 1.8 MMBPD in the first half of 2025, Bloomberg said. Indications so far suggest India plans to continue buying Russian oil despite the U.S. tariffs. President Trump’s 25% secondary tariffs against India come into effect today.

Russia has revised up its crude oil export plan from western ports by 200 MBPD in August from the initial schedule, forcing Russia to export crude that it cannot run in its refineries due to the Ukrainian attacks on its infrastructure. (Reuters)

ING commentary re crude prices reads:" the recent run-up in the market was starting to become increasingly detached from fundamentals, which are more bearish." Indicative of their comment is the fact that in a North Sea pricing window that helps underpin benchmark futures prices, top traders lined up with eight offers of benchmark grades and no willing bidders. One grade fell to near a two-month low and related swaps contracts also softened. (Bloomberg)

The benchmark diesel price used for most fuel surcharges continued its downward drift this week, with the number declining for the fifth consecutive week, as per EIA data seen Tuesday. The price fell by 0.5 cents on the week to $3.708. The 5 week decline totals 10.4 cents. Freightwaves commentary reads: " With the usual lag in retail prices, the downward drift in the DOE/EIA number is catching up to a decline in futures prices from late July levels."

The retail gasoline price has risen today by a further 2.2 cents from yesterday to $3.208, a fresh 2 month high.  Freightwaves comments that the pump price increases for gasoline are coming almost exclusively from increases in wholesale prices set by gasoline suppliers in the Midwest, seemingly tied to the recent outage at BP's Whiting, Indiana refinery, that is the largest in the Midwest. But, the unit was being restarted Monday and RB futures retreated on Monday/Tuesday quite a bit as a result.

Trump praised oil prices “down close to $60 a barrel” at a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, adding that the price will be “breaking that pretty soon.” (Bloomberg)

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to slip into the low $50s by late 2026 as rising OECD inventories weigh on prices. "We expect the oil surplus to widen and average 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 Q4 (through) 2026 Q4, resulting in a nearly 800 million barrel rise in global stocks by end 2026.", the bank writes. (Reuters)  Fourth quarter 2026 Brent futures settled Tuesday at an average of $65.55.

Energy Market Technicals

WTI momentum basis the DC chart remains positive, but the October ULSD & RB charts are seeing momentum that looks poised to turn negative, as they retreat from the rallies seen last week with upside pressure abating as the large BP Midwest refinery has restarted after an outage one week ago.

WTI spot futures have resistance at 64.10-64.15 and then at 65.09-65.11. Support lies at 63.02-63.06, which was tested overnight with the low of 62.95. Below this support is seen at 62.17-62.19. WTI's price pattern looks to be range bound currently.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--October NG is up 7.5 cents
October gas futures are up slightly as demand is back below normal with cool weather forecast while a dip in production and recovery in LNG supply on the day are supportive.

NG prices pulled back Tuesday morning in what may have been a reaction to news of a train at Cheniere's Corpus Christi LNG plant being down. The LNG plant is said to have been only "pulling' 1/2 of its usual amount.  LSEG data showed the plant pulling 1.1 BCF/d, down from its usual 2.4 BCF/d.

Henry Hub next day cash gas Tuesday morning was quoted 2.810 / 2.840. This was versus September futures printing 2.700/2.704 and October futures printing 2.813-2.814at the time. The September futures discount at -12 / -13 cents was wide, versus the -6.7/-6.8 cents differential seen late last week. This wide differential seems to emphasize the market's feeling of lower demand going forward as summer comes to a weak end.

Temperatures are expected to run up to 25 degrees below average from the Plains to the Midwest — and even reach into parts of the South. (Weather Channel)

Comment seen Tuesday : " Longer-term shifts—think LNG exports or new infrastructure—could eventually inject fresh energy, but for now, natural gas seems on track for a stretch of calm." Further commentary from Celsius Energy said they see "fundamentals have tightened up some with robust powerburn despite the cooler temperatures, weak Canadian imports, and recovering LNG export demand."

Today is the last trading session for the September NG futures.

Technically, the October NG futures are seeing the daily chart's momentum turning positive from a near oversold condition. We have attached a weekly chart showing that in 3 of the past 4 years, the NG spot futures bottomed in mid to late August. The DC chart will have a more positive look tomorrow when October becomes the spot futures, gaining several cents from the expiring September contract.  For now, October NG sees support at the low seen Monday of 2.738. Resistance lies at 2.866-2.869, which has been tested with a high of 2.875. Next resistance then is seen at 2.911-2.912.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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