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- Daily Energy Market Update August 26,2025
WTI is down $1.15 October RB is down 2.28 cents October ULSD is down 3.34 cents
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are lower weighed down by geopolitical factors. Looming tariffs on India, a possible fall of the French government and the dispute over the ouster of a Federal Reserve governor by President Trump have most markets trading in the red today.
Indian exporters are bracing for a sharp decline in U.S. orders after trade talks collapsed and Washington confirmed steep new tariffs on the South Asian nation’s goods take effect from Wednesday. (Reuters)
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has called a confidence vote for Sept. 8. Officials from France’s main opposition parties said Monday they would not back the government, raising the risk of French political instability and driving Paris-listed stocks sharply lower early Tuesday. (CNBC)
Long-dated US Treasuries fell as President Donald Trump’s efforts to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook deepened concern about the central bank’s independence and its ability to keep inflation in check. The attack on Fed independence has raised alarm from Wall Street, with Deutsche Bank AG strategists warning that 30-year yields could climb by more than half a percentage point should Trump succeed in dismissing Powell before his term ends in May. (Bloomberg)
BP's 440 MBPD Whiting refinery in Indiana, the largest in the US Midwest, is expected to be fully operational within 24-48 hours after flooding halted operations in some units on August 19. (Quantum Commodities) RB has fallen the most today in a likely reaction to this news.
Sources have told Reuters that U.S. and Russian government officials discussed several energy deals on the sidelines of this month's negotiations seeking peace in Ukraine.
On Monday, the Brent/Dubai relationship fell into a rare discount, with Brent -3 cents versus Dubai. News wires cite the market in Brent reflecting concerns of oversupply, especially heading to the 4th quarter, while the appetite for Mideast barrels remains healthy. Indian refiners are said to be seeking Mideast crude, as they fear U.S. sanctions on them for buying Russian crude oil. (Oil Price)
Monday's rally in energies was seen supported by the possible Federal Reserve interest rate cut, as well as by the Ukraine attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
CME open interest data for the WTI futures shows a decline of 15,559 contracts in Monday's activity. This looks like short covering in the October, November and June 2026 contracts primarily.
The retail average price for gasoline at the pump has risen today to its highest level since June 27. The price today is $3.186. One week ago the price was $3.130.
Energy Market Technicals
At current, technically, the distillates and crude oils are having inside trading sessions versus yesterday's price range. But, RB has fallen off quite a bit from yesterday's high, even as the retail US price has risen to a near 2 month high. Momentum remains positive for the energies.
WTI spot futures see support at 63.02-63.06 and then at 62.17-62.19. Resistance lies at 65.09-65.11, which was tested with yesterday's high of 65.10.
October RB has resistance at 2.0003-2.0010. The overnight high is 1.9979. Support comes in at 1.9579-1.9598 and then at 1.9383-1.9394.
ULSD for October sees support at 2.2944-2.2956 and then at 2.2644-2.2661. Resistance is seen at 2.3443-2.3449.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--October NG is up 1.9 cents
NG futures are slightly higher as the September options expire today. The tone of the market remains overall bearish given the low weather demand heading into September, but LNG feedgas demand has rebounded in the past week, offering some support.
We saw the following commentary on the WSJ wire Monday quoting an analyst : "Some support will come from the potential reversal of coal activations we saw earlier in the summer as gas prices rose. Operators with both resources should switch back to gas at these price levels, even for winter." A further comment written Monday said :"Last week’s sell-off has left traders with little reason to expect a bounce back in prices anytime soon." The commentaries seen, in general, cited ample supply, mild weather forecasts, but strong LNG demand.
LNG feed gas demand during the week of Aug. 15-21 averaged 14.6 BCF/d, 7.9% lower than the week prior average of 15.7 BCF/d. But, demand has picked back up over the last four days and is in line with August, averaging 15.6 BCF/d through Monday, Wood Mackenzie data showed. This brings the monthly average to 0.51 BCF/d above the summer injection season average of 14.8 BCF/d. (NGI)
U.S. domestic natural gas production was estimated at 109.2 BCF/d yesterday compared to an average of 108.7 BCF/d over the previous week, according to Bloomberg data.
In Asia, buyers stepped up LNG imports last week to replenish inventories after the summer. Imports into China, Japan, and South Korea increased on a 30-day average, with Beijing’s daily intake at its highest since January, according to ANZ Research. (WSJ)
Reuters recently highlighted how U.S. LNG exports will soar by roughly 10% a year through 2030 as energy firms double their LNG production capacity, according to analysts. U.S. LNG exports are on track to soar from a record 11.9 BCF/d in 2024 to 21.5 BCF/d in 2030, according to a U.S. EIA outlook. At the same time, the EIA projects U.S. gas production to rise from a record 103.6 BCF/d in 2023 to around 113.5 BCF/d in 2030. NG output is seen having averaged 108.5 BCF/d so far in August, as per LSEG data.
Early estimates we have seen for this week's EIA storage data are calling for a build of 25 to 27 BCF. This compares to last year's build of 35 BCF and the 5 year average build of 38 BCF.
Today is the last trading day for the LN September options. Open interest from the CME shows the following nearby strikes with the largest amounts open as of Monday's close. The $2.75 put has 19,658 contracts open. The $2.60 put has 11,622 contracts open. The $2.50 put has 36,720 contracts open. The $2.75 calls have 7,859 contracts open. The $2.80 calls have 9,000 contracts open, as the contract saw 4,035 contracts of positions added in Monday's trade.
Technically the October NG futures have momentum that is still negative, but it is near oversold and looks poised to turn positive. The contract bounced off the daily chart lower bollinger band yesterday and filled the gap created over the weekend. Upside resistance for the October futures lies at 2.866-2.869 and then at 2.933. Support comes in at the low seen in Monday's session at 2.738 and then at 2.699-2.705 from values from the DC chart.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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