Daily Energy Market Update August 21,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil and RB prices are higher. Prices are up on the back of supportive DOE data seen yesterday and on the back of some uncertainty over a Ukraine peace deal.

"Russia said on Wednesday that attempts to resolve security issues relating to Ukraine over the war without Moscow's participation were a "road to nowhere". Russian embassy officials in New Delhi said on Wednesday that Moscow expects to continue supplying oil to India despite warnings from the United States. Tariffs on India are set to rise on August 27.  (Reuters)

Crude supplies fell by 6.014 MMBBL in Wednesday's DOE data as net crude imports fell by 1.218 MMBPD ( =8.526  MMBBL for the week). The crude oil draw beat forecasts by quite a bit. The highest crude oil draw forecast we saw was -2.3 MMBBL. Crude oil exports rose by 795 MBPD to 4.372 MMBPD, while crude imports fell by 423 MBPD. Refinery runs rose slightly to 17.208 MMBPD. They remain 400 to 500 MBPD over the past 2 years levels. Product demand was mixed on the week with distillate demand rising by 266 MBPD to 3.967 MMBPD. This beat the prior 2 years figures by 131 and 391 MBPD. Gasoline demand fell on the week by 158 MBPD to 8.842 MMBPD. This was less than the past 2 years demand by 68 and 351 MBPD. Gasoline supplies though fell by 2.72 MMBBL, beating forecasts. Distillate supplies rose by 2.343 MMBBL, which was more than forecast. 

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports slipped in June to their lowest level in three months, according to data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) released on Wednesday. Crude exports from the world’s largest oil exporter fell by 50 MBPD to 6.141 MMBPD, from 6.191 MMBPD in May. Yet, Saudi Arabia’s crude output for June was 9.752 MMBPD, up from 9.184 MMBPD in May. The higher output was from the decision by OPEC+ to raise output. But, the lower crude oil exports is due to Saudi Arabia using more crude oil for domestic consumption in the hotter summer months, as direct crude burning increased by 185 MBPD. (Reuters)

The retail diesel price at the pump in the U.S has fallen today to its lowest price in 6 weeks. The price today is $3.690. One month ago it was $3.722 and one year ago it was $3.735.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically momentum is positive for the RB & ULSD basis their October daily charts, while that for WTI is neutral on the DC chart as October has become the spot WTI futures contract.

WTI futures continue to have a sideways pattern on the DC chart, befitting the neutral momentum. Resistance is seen at 64.10-64.15 and then at 65.09-65.11. Support is seen at 61.94 and then at 61.02-61.06.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas-- NG is up 4.4 cents
NG futures are higher as demand has risen some and production has fallen slightly. LNG feedgas volume bouncing back recently is seen as supportive.

Bloomberg data  estimated Wednesday's  lower 48 dry gas production at 107.49 BCF/d, down from the previous day of 108.92 BCF/d. On August 10, Bloomberg had gas production at 110.03 BCF/d. Celsius Energy said that recent production declines have come mostly from the South Central region, which includes the Permian shale basin, where the rig count has fallen in recent weeks.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would ease from 111 BCF/d this week to 106.6 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up a total of 1.9 BCF/d from those seen the day before.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to 15.3 BCF/d on Wednesday from a two-week low of 14.2 BCF/d on both Monday and Tuesday due to reductions at several plants. (Reuters)

The EIA gas storage number due out today is calling for a build of 22 to 25 BCF as per Reuters and WSJ surveys. This compares to last year's build of 29 BCF and the 5 year average build of 35 BCF.

Celsius Energy reports that wind generation has been weak recently. Wind generation came in at an anemic 514 GWh on Tuesday, a 2025 low, Celsius said. This allowed the natural gas power burn to claim a strong 47% share of the power stack, topping 48 BCF/d, up nearly 3 BCF/d vs 2025. Celsius added that even as wind generation was slightly stronger Wednesday, it remained well below year-ago levels.

NG futures open interest on the CME has increased by near 30,500 contracts in the past 2 sessions, even as the soon to expire September contract has seen open interest fall by nearly 26,000 contracts. The increases the past 2 sessions have come primarily in the October, November, December, February  and March contracts. Given price action and the tone of the market, we lean to this mostly being new short positions. 

"Goldman Lowers US Natgas Price Outlook" read the headline Wednesday. Goldman Sachs cut its September-October price forecast from $3.90/MMbtu to $3.35/MMBtu and its November-December price from $4.50/MMbtu to $4/MMBtu due to a revision in production numbers for the remainder of the summer. Production numbers beat predictions this month, suggesting drillers had accumulated larger-than-expected inventory over the course of 2024, which saw low prices and are now bringing those volumes to the marketplace, Goldman said. U.S. LNG has only offset higher output to a certain extent even as Plaquemines ramps up sendoff faster than anticipated. Goldman, though, maintained its view that production will need to be high in 2026, as it keeps its 2026 price at $4.60, suggesting an anticipated drop in production for next year. The bank maintains its recommendation to be long April 26 NG. (Market News)

TTF European gas prices are higher today due to the uncertainty over a deal to end the Ukraine war. EU storage levels are above 74%, compared to almost 90% at the same time last year. Technically, the spot TTF futures show a stepladder up pattern after hitting a multi month low on Monday. Momentum has turned positive with the move off of the Monday low.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC