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- Daily Energy Market Update August 18, 2026
Oil is starting the US session with the risk around the Strait of Hormuz back at the center of the market. Prospects for a near-term resolution of the US-Iran conflict have weakened, while another vessel was struck by a projectile while transiting out of Hormuz, causing damage and a crew casualty. Brent is trading around $91 a barrel, extending its recent rally as concerns over the duration of the disruption increase.
The deterioration in the diplomatic outlook is important for the physical market. The temporary US-Iran agreement has expired without a broader deal, while Iran has threatened a more aggressive military posture if negotiations fail. At the same time, traffic through Hormuz remains severely restricted, leaving the market increasingly dependent on alternative ways of moving barrels.
Saudi Arabia is becoming an increasingly important part of that story. Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings from inside the Strait and is offering crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah, according to Reuters. That follows the tanker positioning off Oman reported yesterday and suggests producers continue to use alternative shipping arrangements as normal traffic through the Strait remains limited.
For the market, the question is shifting from how much oil can still move to how long these workarounds can continue. Higher crude prices are reflecting the increased risk of a prolonged disruption, while the physical market remains highly sensitive to further attacks, tanker availability and any change in the diplomatic situation.
For today, the key things to watch are developments around the US-Iran talks, traffic through Hormuz, Saudi loading activity and the continued use of ship-to-ship transfers.
Crude (CL1)
Crude is heading into the U.S. open up 32 cents at $84.82 as of 6:45 a.m. Yesterday, price closed near the top of the small consolidation range that has developed since last week and is holding that level overnight.
Momentum continues to move higher and is approaching the neutral zone. Watch for a close above the top of the range at $85.04, which could open the door for follow-through toward the 100-day moving average at $88.74.
Key Levels
Resistance
$87.68 — Gap from two weeks ago
$88.74 — 100-day moving average
$90.82 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
$82.57 — 20-day moving average
$79.27 — 50-day moving average
$77.34 — 200-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil made a new overnight high at 4.3442 before reversing and trading below yesterday’s close heading into the U.S. open.
The bearish divergence remains in place, with price making a higher high while momentum makes a lower high. We are watching for technical confirmation that price may have reached a near-term top. A close below 4.3072 today would mark a reversal, creating confluence and strengthening the possibility of a pullback.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.3442 — Overnight high
4.3458 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.1400 — Previous high
3.9857 — 20-day moving average
3.6248 — Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude spread also opened higher, made a new high, and has since reversed lower. It is down 13 cents at 8.85 as of 7:00 a.m.
Momentum is moving back into overbought territory and continues to point higher, keeping the near-term momentum picture constructive.
Key Levels
Resistance
9.57 — Highest high since the July 2 low
10.00 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
7.24 — 20-day moving average
6.14 — 100-day moving average
5.53 — 50-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural gas is up 2.8 cents at 2.761 in overnight trading. The move overnight exactly filled the gap between Friday and Monday at 2.763. Yesterday’s price action was unable to test the double bottom from August 6–7.
Momentum has only recently moved out of oversold territory and continues to point higher. With momentum improving and price still holding above the double bottom, natural gas could continue to find support around 2.670.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.801 — 20-day moving average
2.887 — Last week’s high
2.943 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
2.670 — Double bottom
2.659 — Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGV26)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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