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- Daily Energy Market Update August 17, 2026
Overnight, the oil market remained focused on the ability of Gulf producers to keep barrels moving despite the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reports that covert shuttle movements through Hormuz and transfers off Oman remain active, with volumes estimated at more than 4 mb/d. At the same time, normal vessel traffic through the Strait slowed sharply over the weekend, with only five commodity vessels transiting Saturday and none on Sunday. The contrast highlights the importance of the alternative shipping arrangements in keeping some Gulf barrels moving.
Saudi Arabia is also worth watching. Bloomberg reported two ships loading at Ras Tanura last week, while Bahri has positioned 16 supertankers off Oman, with three more on the way. The activity comes as the Red Sea route faces increased risk from Houthi attacks. Bloomberg has not reported that Saudi Arabia is already moving large volumes through the shuttle system, so the extent of any Saudi participation remains unclear.
Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar are also reported to be moving barrels through shuttle arrangements. Along with pipeline workarounds, stockpile releases and lower demand, these measures have helped limit the broader supply impact so far. Brent has remained below the extreme levels initially feared when the conflict began, although the sharp reduction in normal Hormuz traffic keeps the physical supply risk elevated.
For today, the key things to watch are traffic through Hormuz, tanker activity around Oman and whether producers and shipowners continue to use these alternative arrangements.
Crude (CL1)
Crude is coming into US trading up 39 cents at $82.80 as of 6:40 a.m. Price continues to hover around the mid-Bollinger Band, which is the 20-day moving average, and was mostly contained within yesterday’s range overnight.
Momentum turned higher last week and continues to point higher. It remains below neutral, which could provide some tailwinds as it moves toward neutral. A move through the 20-day moving average would open the door for a test of the 100-day moving average at $88.82.
Key Levels
Resistance
- $88.82 — 100-day moving average
- $90.70 — Upper Bollinger Band
- $93.50 — July 23 high
Support
- $79.35 — 50-day moving average
- $77.21 — 200-day moving average
- $74.28 — Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil is also higher, trading at 4.2096 as of 6:50 a.m. Price made a new overnight high at 4.2327, breaking out of last week’s consolidation phase.
There was already a bearish momentum divergence last week, and today’s new high continues to reinforce that divergence. However, we have not yet seen a reversal in price to confirm it. Until price turns lower, the divergence remains a warning rather than a confirmed signal.
Momentum is overbought this morning, although it is not near the levels seen when heating oil made its previous high on July 23. Watch for a reversal in price as confirmation that a more meaningful retracement could be developing.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 4.2327 — Overnight high
- 4.2794 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
- 3.9613 — 20-day moving average
- 3.6432 — Lower Bollinger Band
- 3.5759 — 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The crude spread is coming into the US session close to unchanged at 7.95. Overnight price action saw the spread trade a .78 range before settling right around Friday’s close.
The 20-day moving average at 7.14 continues to provide near-term support and held on a couple of tests last week.
Momentum crossed up from the neutral zone last week and continues to move higher, keeping the near-term bias pointed higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 8.88 — Last week’s high
- 9.57 — July 23 high
- 9.70 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
- 7.14 — 20-day moving average
- 6.10 — 100-day moving average
- 5.46 — 50-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural gas gapped lower overnight, trading down to a low of 2.685. Price action filled the gap from the previous Monday, stopping just short of key support at 2.668, the double bottom.
Despite the bearish price action overnight, momentum continues to point higher after recently moving back above the oversold level. That keeps the momentum picture constructive as price approaches the double-bottom support.
A break below 2.668 would weaken the setup and bring the lower Bollinger Band into focus.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 2.805 — 20-day moving average
- 2.887 — Last week’s high
- 2.952 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
- 2.670 — Double bottom
- 2.657 — Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGV26)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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